Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
553 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Tonight through Saturday night: Severe storms are expected across
the CWA this afternoon and evening. The most intense storms are
expected along and south of a line from Winnsboro, Louisiana to De
Kalb in Kemper County Mississippi where damaging wind gusts, large
hail and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. Mid afternoon
radars showed a line of severe storms tracking east from the Highway
82 Corridor to well north of Interstate 20. This activity is
expected to hinder the development of additional severe storm
develop in its wake. Farther south though a surface low over the
east Texas/southwest Louisiana line is expected to track northeast
through Monday. This surface low was being supported by a closed low
as noted on mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis spinning
over the Texas panhandle. A warm front associated with the surface
low was noted on surface analysis near a line from Natchez to
Meridian. This warm front will try to push a little farther north
through this evening while the surface low rides along it. Storms
developing south of the warm front are expected to become focused
along the warm front to maximize potential for severe development.
In addition, locally heavy rain will also be possible with the
strongest storms and will fall over wet soils from previous rainfall
last several days. Some runoff issues should be expected and may
briefly lead to flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas.
Although the severe threat is expected to end before midnight
tonight the surface low will still be over our CWA and note shift
east of Mississippi along with its cold front until Monday morning.
This will end most of the significant rain however, light rain
chances will continue due to the closed low that will take until
Monday night to move far enough to the northeast of Mississippi to
end any chance of measurable precipitation. Cooler than normal
temperatures are expected Monday night through Tuesday night but
near normal temperatures are expected again Wednesday afternoon. Dry
weather is expected Monday night through Thursday night but rain
chances return from the southwest Friday as another low pressure
system approaches the region. Friday there will be a surface low in
the northwest Gulf that will help increase moisture over our area
while a strong cold front approaches from the central Plains. These
two features will form a squeeze play over our CWA Saturday
resulting in widespread rain followed by a return to dry weather and
cooler than normal temperatures Saturday night and Sunday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Local radars showed numerous TSRA across the area resulting in
IFR cigs across the northern half and a mix of MVFR/VFR cigs
across the southern half of the CWA. Poor flying conditions are
expected to continue through 16Z Mon as a center of low pressure
moves across the area MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail with
occasional VFR and LIFR conditions. After 16Z Monday cntrl and
southern TAF sites wl begin to improve. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       53  63  35  57 /  80  30   0   0
Meridian      58  68  37  59 /  90  70   0   0
Vicksburg     48  57  34  58 /  80  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   58  69  37  60 /  90  70   0   0
Natchez       48  57  35  59 /  70  10   0   0
Greenville    49  55  34  56 /  80  40   0   0
Greenwood     53  60  34  57 / 100  40  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

/22/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
530 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

MSZ038-039-046-120015-
Kemper MS-Noxubee MS-Winston MS-
530 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NOXUBEE...NORTHWESTERN
KEMPER AND SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CST...

At 530 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Preston, or 13 miles northwest of De Kalb, moving northeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Gholson and Mashulaville around 535 PM CST.
  Macon and Shuqualak around 540 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for east central
Mississippi.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for
east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3303 8838 3282 8887 3288 8892 3293 8891
      3293 8893 3292 8893 3292 8895 3293 8896
      3321 8859
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 230DEG 44KT 3293 8880

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
545 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     Hail             Pocahontas              32.47N 90.29W
02/11/2024  E1.00 inch       Hinds              MS   Emergency Mngr

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
545 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

MSZ042-043-120045-
Yazoo MS-Madison MS-
545 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL YAZOO AND MADISON
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CST...

At 545 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Annandale, or 8 miles west of Gluckstadt, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jackson, Canton, and Gluckstadt around 550 PM CST.
  Way and Sharon around 605 PM CST.
  Camden around 615 PM CST.
  Cameron around 620 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8997 3288 8973 3264 8973 3258 8979
      3259 8979 3258 8982 3259 8984 3258 8986
      3257 8987 3256 8989 3251 8993 3249 8996
      3250 8998 3248 9002 3244 9004 3242 9009
      3271 9032 3290 9003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 232DEG 36KT 3252 9024

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
552 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

LAZ016-025-026-MSZ047-053-059-060-120030-
Tensas LA-Madison LA-Concordia LA-Adams MS-Jefferson MS-Warren MS-
Claiborne MS-
552 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT TENSAS...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN CONCORDIA PARISHES...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...CENTRAL
CLAIBORNE...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTIES
THROUGH 630 PM CST...

At 551 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Newlight to 6 miles northeast of Cooter
Point to near Helena. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Helena and Newlight around 555 PM CST.
  Lake Bruin around 600 PM CST.
  St. Joseph and Newellton around 605 PM CST.
  Somerset around 615 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for northeastern
Louisiana...and southwestern and west central Mississippi.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for
northeastern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 9151 3228 9106 3217 9090 3187 9093
      3163 9144 3196 9148 3202 9151 3208 9149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 247DEG 24KT 3209 9148 3199 9140 3185 9143

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
616 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

LAZ024>026-120115-
Tensas LA-Concordia LA-Catahoula LA-
616 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TENSAS...NORTHERN
CONCORDIA AND CENTRAL CATAHOULA PARISHES THROUGH 715 PM CST...

At 615 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mayna, or 7 miles south of Jonesville, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jonesville, Wildsville, and Frogmore around 620 PM CST.
  Ferriday around 625 PM CST.
  Clayton and Lee Bayou around 630 PM CST.
  Spokane around 635 PM CST.
  Cooter Point around 645 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for northeastern
Louisiana...and southwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3188 9160 3188 9158 3194 9151 3192 9147
      3178 9146 3175 9138 3174 9138 3132 9190
      3146 9201 3151 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 225DEG 52KT 3152 9184

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CR