Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
612 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* There are periodic chances (30-60%) for showers and storms today
  through Tuesday night. Storms could be locally severe with
  damaging winds and flooding the primary threats during this
  timeframe.

* Hot and humid conditions are expected today and Monday, dependent
  on storm coverage and timing. Monday's afternoon peak heat indices
  may near 100 degrees.

* Cooler, drier weather is anticipated Wednesday through this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

An unsettled pattern will linger through at least Tuesday with
numerous convectively aided disturbances tracking east-southeast
over an enhanced theta-e plume draped across the Upper Midwest and
western/southern Great Lakes. Periodically stormy and humid wx will
result with low confidence in daily high temps and convective
chances/intensity as guidance struggles to resolve mesoscale
features (composite outflows) and the low amplitude nature to
convectively modulated perturbations. The result is a forecast
littered by chance PoPs, SPC marginal to slight severe outlooks, and
high humidity.

For this morning, the first outflow dominant MCS is bring decaying
convection into the area. Wind gusts to 30 mph and locally heavy
rainfall remain possible immediately behind the leading sfc outflow.
Outflow stable bubble might put a lid on convection for much of the
day otherwise, though hard to remove PoPs as low level southwest
flow likely erodes MLCIN at some point with renewed scattered storms
possible along the trailing composite outflow boundary. Prospects
for another more organized outflow dominant MCS increases later
this evening into the early overnight.

The local area remains divorced from more favorable deep layer
shear to the northwest tonight through Monday night, with deeper
shear even trailing a stronger synoptic cold front by the
Tuesday/Tuesday evening periods. This would suggest more outflow
dominant convective clusters (isolated strong-severe convection
- wind primary threat) with the lacking shear and impressive
MUCAPE reservoir in the vicinity. With that said, more intense
MCS's can produce a more intense wind field allowing for greater
shear/outflow balance, highest probs on occurrence Monday
night.

The high pwat airmass, and the potential for convective
outflows to slow or back build, also brings excessive rainfall
and flooding into the mix with any MCS, especially in nw IN and
sw MI given recent heavy rainfall from Beryl's remnants. There
has been a consistent signal in model guidance for excessive
rainfall Monday night.

Monday still appears to be the best opportunity for near advisory
peak PM heat indices (100F). A more comfortable continental airmass
will provide relief from the active wx and humidity mid week through
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Mainly VFR/dry through the period. Remnant MCS clears early this
morning with MLCIN bubble likely to limit the southeastward
progress of a southern WI convection cluster into northern IN
through much of the day. Low level southwest flow does increase
and advect moisture/instability back in later today into
tonight. This may allow another outflow dominant convective
system to drop southeast through the terminals with brief gusty
winds and restrictions at some point, best chances mid evening
into the overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Steinwedel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
407 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-150815-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
407 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 /307 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and storms will move through early this morning. Gusty winds
to 30 mph, heavy rain and lightning are the primary threats.

Heat indices are expected to reach well into the 90s by later this
afternoon.

Another round of thunderstorms may move through again this evening
into the early overnight. Isolated strong to severe storms with
excessive rainfall and gusty winds will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast Monday into
Tuesday. Some of these storms could be severe, particularly Monday
night into Tuesday. Locally heavy rain and isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts appear to be potential primary threats.

Peak afternoon heat indices may reach near 100 degrees Monday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-150815-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
407 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger early this morning. Another
round of thunderstorms will be possible tonight with frequent
lightning and gusts in excess of 40 knots possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic thunderstorm chance remain in the forecast Monday into
Tuesday. Some of these storms could be severe, particularly Monday
into Tuesday. Strong wind gusts in excess of 50 knots may accompany
the stronger storms.

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