Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Indianapolis, IN

027 
WWUS53 KIND 080029
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
829 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INC005-013-081-105-109-080100-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-240508T0100Z/
Monroe IN-Morgan IN-Johnson IN-Brown IN-Bartholomew IN-
829 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONROE...SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN...SOUTHERN JOHNSON...
NORTHERN BROWN AND NORTHWESTERN BARTHOLOMEW COUNTIES...

At 828 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Martinsville,
or 15 miles northeast of Bloomington, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Martinsville, Edinburgh, Princes Lakes, Trafalgar,
Morgantown, Peoga, Mahalasville, Spearsville, and Beanblossom.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 84 and 90.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central and
south central Indiana.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 8595 3931 8654 3945 8643 3951 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 262DEG 37KT 3937 8639 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

White

605 
WWUS53 KIND 080045
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
845 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INC005-013-081-105-109-080100-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-240508T0100Z/
Monroe IN-Morgan IN-Johnson IN-Brown IN-Bartholomew IN-
845 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL MONROE...SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN...SOUTHERN JOHNSON...
NORTHERN BROWN AND NORTHWESTERN BARTHOLOMEW COUNTIES...

At 845 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Franklin, or 18 miles northwest of Columbus, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Edinburgh, Princes Lakes, Trafalgar, Morgantown, Peoga,
Mahalasville, Spearsville, and Beanblossom.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 84 and 90.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for central and
south central Indiana.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 8595 3931 8646 3946 8632 3951 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 262DEG 37KT 3940 8616 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

White

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
754 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms expected today, especially during the afternoon
  and evening. All forms of severe hazards are possible.

- Additional severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
  evening. All forms of severe hazards are again possible.

- Heavy rain is possible at times through Wednesday night. Localized
  flooding will also be possible.

- Periodic chances for showers and a few storms late week into early
  next week.

- Normal to slightly below normal temperatures from Thursday
  into early next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 753 EDT Tue May 7 2024

Convective mode has become a little messier over last hour or two,
with a mix of supercells and now a more linear segment across Shelby
and Johnson counties. The line segment evolved due to outflow
mergers creating a local cold pool which has pushed east across
Shelby, increasing the potential for some strong/severe wind gusts.
Meanwhile, the back portion of this line over Johnson has evolved
more into a heavy rain/local flood threat as cells train east across
the county. However, a new line segment now over southern Johnson is
moving more normal to its own axis, increasing the local wind and
hail threat in that part of the county.

Several supercells are still in play over central IN, one warned in
Rush County, others in Randolph that appear to be weakening last
couple radar scans. Additional cells expected this evening along and
south of current activity as unstable SW inflow continues to impinge
on convective outflow boundary from ongoing cells. Besides
continuing severe threat, additional heavy rain could result in more
ponding of water and localized flooding.

Issued at 634 EDT Tue May 7 2024

Scattered supercells continue to track E and NE over central IN. The
earlier cell that was approaching southern Indy metro failed to
pulse up as cell mergers occurred more in front flank of cell which
may have limited unstable inflow into updraft zone. Nevertheless it
remains a core entity as it passes across SE Marion Co. at this time
and will continue to monitor as it moves east.

Other supercells not showing much low-level rotation at this time.
This could be due to slightly more veered boundary-layer flow into
the storms, limiting some streamwise vorticity ingestion into
updraft zone. Nevertheless, we are getting some good hail cores with
occasional 1 inch reports still happening with strongest cells.

Most concern over next 1-2 hours would be the storms along/near the
I-70 corridor which have unimpeded axis to unstable low-level inflow
and reside on the northern gradient of the maximum instability over
far SW IN on southward. Storms also are riding along their own
created outflow boundary which could possibly promote better
convergence and tilting/rotation into the updraft. Will continue to
monitor.

Issued at 540 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Persistent supercell continues to track east across southern and
eastern Putnam Co. at this time. Storm has history of 1 inch
diameter hail, with isolated report up to ping pong in Putnam along
with funnel cloud as relayed by EMA. Still healthy rotation aloft
but less so in low-levels. Still not seeing really any cell or
shower mergers into southern inflow flank of storm yet although
radar now showing some cells developing just to its south and moving
NE toward it. Such mergers can enhance low-level streamwise
vorticity and rotation potential, subsequently leading to better
tornado potential (but not always). WoFS data suggests that some
mergers and some cell strengthening may occur as it continues to
propagate east toward southern half of Indy metro over next hour,
although rain from downwind part of storm will affect Indy area
shortly. Will continue to monitor trends on this storm closely.

Elsewhere, we are continue to monitor supercell structures over
Boone, Clinton, and Tipton counties at this time.

More updates to come.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Our focus in the short term is the severe weather potential this
afternoon.

THIS AFTERNOON

Synoptic Overview

A potent trough and associated jet streak are beginning to edge into
Indiana. We'll find ourselves in the right exit region of the jet
streak. Typically, the right exit region isn't usually considered
the best place for large-scale lift. However, we're dealing with a
cyclonically curved jet streak which maintain favorable lift in both
the right and left exit regions. The best vorticity advection looks
like it will pass to our north. Still, enough divergence exists
within the jet streak for synoptic-scale lifting this afternoon.
500mb height falls signify that this large-scale lifting is ongoing.

At the surface, a cold front across northwestern Illinois will
advance eastward. This feature will provide another source of lift
in addition to the dynamics above. A potent low-level jet (35-45kt
at 850mb) will advect warm buoyant air back northward eroding what
remains of a cold pool/CIN. Rapid destabilization of the planetary
boundary layer (PBL) is expected as we head into the afternoon
through a combination of advection and solar insolation. Additional
lift will arise from the buoyant forces near the surface. As such,
thunderstorms are likely once again both along the boundary and
within the open warm sector.

Convective Mode

Now that we've reasoned why thunderstorm development is once again
expected this afternoon, we can take a look at convective mode and
hazard types. Latest RAP analysis shows plenty of low-level shear,
and this is corroborated by latest satellite imagery showing
billows/waves in the warm sector stratus (17z). RAP soundings depict
0-1km shear over 20kt, with effective bulk shear over 50kt.
Hodographs are long, with some curvature in the lowest 3km
(especially as one heads further east). The thermal profile shows
modest lapse rates with tall CAPE profiles and abundant low-level
moisture. NAM/GFS soundings are quite similar. The jet streak aloft
is generally perpendicular to the warm sector and cold front.
Therefore, multicell clusters and supercells appear to be the most
likely storm mode today. Reason being is we have a lot of shear with
the best large-scale lift is passing to our north. Additionally,
faster flow may still be a bit further west and storms could have
poor anvil-level relative outflow (which may promote multicell over
supercell). The jet streak will be deeper into the region later in
the day as well, so supercell mode may become more prominent after
6pm or so. Linear mode may be possible in the evening as the
front/pressure trough becomes a bit more parallel with the shear
vector.

Hazard Type and Timing

In terms of hazard type, we have an "all of the above" situation
this afternoon. Abundant buoyancy and shear in the lowest 1km should
promote tornado potential, with the possibility of a strong tornado.
Additionally, tall CAPE profiles with fast flow through the Hail
Growth Zone upward will promote a large to very large hail threat.
Dry mid-level air may lead to DCAPE values over 1000J/kg allowing
for efficient downward momentum transfer and a damaging wind threat.
These hazards are most likely within supercells that develop. In
terms of timing, given the lack of a cap in the model soundings...it
seems probable that convection fires up rather early in the
afternoon. As of 17z, low- level stratus still has a wavy
appearance signifying low-level stability...though this is
beginning to change. Satellite trends show convective rolls and a
few towers beginning to develop over northern Illinois. The most
probable timing of convective redevelopment is between 18-21z.

TONIGHT

High-res guidance generally shows convective activity exiting the
area before 06z. As mentioned above, some linear convective mode is
possible in the evening...and if the line orients itself parallel to
the shear vector then storm training may occur. This may promote a
heavy rainfall threat. This seems most probable in the south and
eastern portions of our CWA. Surface winds diminish quickly after
sunset and another round of overnight fog is possible as PBL
inversion develops.

Wednesday's severe weather threat will be covered in the Long Range
Discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT - Another day of potentially significant severe
weather is likely Wednesday, with all hazards possible, though the
corridor of highest severe potential may be further to our
south/southwest as opposed to today.

Central Indiana will begin the day on the cool side of the effective
warm front, which will likely lay somewhere along a Kansas City -
Paducah line and points east/southeastward by daybreak, though the
eastward extent becomes a bit more uncertain as this portion of the
boundary may be convectively reinforced.

All models, including CAMs, show this boundary pushing steadily back
northward through the day on Wednesday, though there is decent
variability in how quickly this occurs and what that means for
destabilization and evolution of tomorrow's rounds of convection.

The rough consensus appears to be that the front will get as far
north as the I-70 corridor or thereabout by late afternoon, though
convection will very likely be in progress by this time, as minimal
inhibition is expected within the warm sector. Convection may then
push eastward and perhaps even east/southeastward as potential
upscale growth occurs, cold pools become established and storms
begin to ride the instability gradient along the boundary, which may
be held up on its northward lift by this activity, which is a
failure mode for severe episodes we've seen in this area several
times before. The lack of capping may also contribute to a variety
of convective modes, with discrete storms ahead of any possible QLCS
segments, though all hazards look to be on the table - with relative
threat of each hazard depending significantly upon these modes.

Shear will not be an issue, as deep layer and low level bulk shear
numbers are more than adequate for organized storms across the area,
especially along the boundary - and significant instability will be
present within the warm sector. It appears that convection will fire
fairly early in the day over western Missouri into NE Oklahoma/NW
Arkansas, initially moving eastward or even ENE-ward with the mean
flow, with a gradual shift to eastward motion and then ESE-ward with
time as convection organizes and begins to modify the environment.

Focus area over the last 24 hours has shifted south somewhat, and
given the CAM guidance and uncertainties with respect to warm
frontal progress/airmass recovery further northward into central
Indiana, this appears reasonable. If QLCS mode becomes predominant
early in the day, this activity may well skirt across the southern
portions of central Indiana in late afternoon/early evening as it
moves eastward and then begins to develop southeastward along the
instability gradient. However far north the warm front manages to
progress, any convection near and along it, particularly discrete
cells, will have the potential for tornadoes, possibly significant,
though again, the most likely corridor for this appears to be just
off to our south/southwest at this time.

Significant rainfall potential will exist with this activity, and a
hydrologic threat will require monitoring tomorrow into tomorrow
night, dependent upon storm track and evolution.

THURSDAY - TUESDAY...

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT - Cooler with periodic shower/storm chances
through the rest of the forecast period.

Lingering shower and storm chances will accompany a secondary cold
front and the upper level trough axis as it passes through the
region on Thursday, and periodic shower chances will be necessary
throughout the remainder of the long term as individual waves within
the larger upper level cyclonic flow impinge upon the region.

Temperatures will be cooler, perhaps significantly so, late in the
week and into the weekend, though some recovery back into the mid to
perhaps upper 70s appears likely by early next week as the large
scale upper trough pulls northeastward and heights begin to build
locally/flow becomes quasizonal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Impacts:

- Thunderstorms continue to impact KIND through 0-1z. KBMG could see
impacts through 2-3z.

- Patchy fog possible overnight.

Discussion:

Thunderstorms remain mainly east of a line from Kokomo to Terre
Haute. Strong and severe thunderstorms remain possible for the next
few hours with very poor flying conditions within or near any
shower/storm, which at this point should not impact KHUF or KLAF.

After storms exit the area, skies should clear and some patchy fog
may form overnight. Winds may go light and variable for a time.

Wednesday will feature increasing clouds and a renewed storm threat.
The best storm chances appear to be across southern Indiana, with
lesser chances north. Will leave out thunder mention for tomorrow
for now without good confidence on timing and location but include
some convective cu. Winds become southerly around 10-14 kts
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

MESOSCALE...Funk
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...CP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
335 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-081945-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-
Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-
Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-
Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
335 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated damaging wind risk
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms are developing at this time and will move through
central Indiana this afternoon and evening. All hazards are
possible.

Storm motion today will be out of the west southwest at 40-50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are expected at times through Wednesday night then
possible again on Saturday afternoon and Monday.

Severe storms are possible again on Wednesday with damaging
winds, hail and a few tornadoes all possible. The greatest
potential for severe weather on Wednesday will be in the
evening/overnight. Repeated rounds of rainfall may allow river
flooding to redevelop along with localized flash flooding as
well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for all of central Indiana
through this evening.

&&

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at:

http://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ind
http://www.weather.gov/ind

WFO IND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
607 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ046-047-054-055-072245-
Johnson IN-Morgan IN-Hendricks IN-Marion IN-
607 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Morgan,
northern Johnson, southeastern Hendricks and southern Marion Counties
through 645 PM EDT...

At 607 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mooresville, or 14 miles southwest of Indianapolis, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Indianapolis, Greenwood, Plainfield, Beech Grove, Mooresville,
Southport, Cumberland, Homecroft, and Camby.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 97 and 109.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 62 and 74.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 93 and 100.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central
Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 8644 3969 8646 3978 8595 3958 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 258DEG 31KT 3965 8636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Nield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
616 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ039-040-072300-
Madison IN-Hamilton IN-
616 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Madison and
northeastern Hamilton Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 616 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Noblesville, or 19 miles west of Anderson, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Anderson, Noblesville, Alexandria, Westfield, Cicero, Chesterfield,
Edgewood, Frankton, Arcadia, Orestes, Woodlawn Heights, Country Club
Heights, River Forest, and Morse Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central
Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4032 8558 4010 8558 4008 8614 4014 8615
      4022 8590 4022 8586 4023 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 254DEG 33KT 4013 8606

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Nield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
621 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ045-046-052>054-072315-
Clay IN-Owen IN-Morgan IN-Putnam IN-Hendricks IN-
621 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Morgan,
Hendricks, northeastern Clay, northeastern Owen and southern Putnam
Counties through 715 PM EDT...

At 620 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greencastle, or 26 miles east of Terre Haute, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Plainfield, Brownsburg, Martinsville, Greencastle, Mooresville,
Danville, Avon, Cloverdale, Brooklyn, Monrovia, Clayton, Fillmore,
Coatesville, Amo, Stilesville, Bethany, Quincy, Belle Union, Lake
Hart, and Reelsville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 27 and 69.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 67 and 69.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central and
west central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 8707 3987 8633 3943 8632 3943 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 255DEG 44KT 3959 8690

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Nield

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
634 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Hail             2 W Pimento             39.30N 87.43W
05/07/2024  E1.00 Inch       Vigo               IN   Trained Spotter

            Winds gusting to estimated 45 mph.

&&

AGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
706 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ056-072330-
Shelby IN-
706 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Shelby
County through 730 PM EDT...

At 706 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shelbyville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, St. Paul, Fairland, Marietta, Waldron, and Boggstown.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 109 and 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central
Indiana. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3942 8563 3941 8595 3956 8595 3965 8563
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 257DEG 31KT 3949 8589

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Nield

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
712 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Hail             2 NW Brooklyn           39.56N 86.40W
05/07/2024  E1.75 Inch       Morgan             IN   Public

&&

AGM