Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Indianapolis, IN

945 
WWUS53 KIND 190138
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
938 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

INC021-027-055-083-153-167-190215-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-240419T0215Z/
Vigo IN-Sullivan IN-Knox IN-Clay IN-Greene IN-Daviess IN-
938 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN VIGO...SULLIVAN...KNOX...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...WESTERN
GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES...

At 936 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Martinsville to Robinson to Parkersburg, moving east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Terre Haute, Vincennes, Washington, Linton, Sullivan, Bicknell,
Jasonville, Shelburn, Prairieton, Prairie Creek, Farmersburg, Dugger,
Clay City, Hymera, Lyons, Fairbanks, Carlisle, Elnora, Oaktown, and
Monroe City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 8753 3946 8709 3933 8706 3886 8708
      3854 8723 3851 8730 3854 8735 3852 8754
      3845 8760 3842 8774 3847 8775 3851 8765
      3864 8762 3874 8750 3886 8755 3896 8751
      3913 8766 3922 8757 3931 8762 3935 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 269DEG 36KT 3933 8788 3901 8774 3858 8805 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BRB

501 
WWUS53 KIND 190159
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
959 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

INC021-027-055-083-153-167-190215-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-240419T0215Z/
Vigo IN-Sullivan IN-Knox IN-Clay IN-Greene IN-Daviess IN-
959 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN VIGO...SULLIVAN...KNOX...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...WESTERN
GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES...

At 959 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles southwest of Terre Haute to near Palestine to
Mount Carmel, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Terre Haute, Vincennes, Washington, Linton, Sullivan, Bicknell,
Jasonville, Shelburn, Prairieton, Prairie Creek, Farmersburg, Dugger,
Clay City, Hymera, Lyons, Fairbanks, Carlisle, Elnora, Oaktown, and
Monroe City.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 8753 3946 8709 3933 8706 3886 8708
      3854 8723 3851 8730 3854 8735 3852 8754
      3845 8760 3842 8774 3847 8775 3851 8765
      3864 8762 3874 8750 3886 8755 3896 8751
      3913 8766 3922 8757 3931 8762 3935 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 269DEG 53KT 3937 8746 3896 8753 3841 8776 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
616 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms and locally heavy rain are possible from after 8pm
  through around sunrise.

- Cooler but dry Friday through Monday. Some frost potential mainly
  north Sunday morning, more widespread frost possible Monday
  morning.

- Increasing rain chances next Tuesday, low chance for thunderstorms

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A few strong or severe storms may sneak into far southwestern parts
of central Indiana, including Sullivan, Vincennes and Washington,
after 8 pm. Currently, strong to severe convection, including a
supercell over southern Illinois was tracking northeast around 30
mph. If these storms can make it to Vincennes, a nearby warm front
could provide some spin to the convection. In addition, surface
based CAPEs have come up over this area with LAPS and SPC data
showing SB CAPEs 500 to 1000 J/kg. This area is currently being
monitored for a convective watch later this evening.

Meanwhile, CAMs are in good agreement that the current strong to
severe convection lined up near a Springfield to St. Louis to Rolla
line will not make it into the upper Wabash Valley until after 9 pm
and then quickly roll through late this evening and early overnight.
Although instability will be waning, strong convergence and better
deep shear could result in a squall line that will be capable of
maintaining at severe threat at least into the Wabash Valley if not
the Metro. Damaging winds will be the main concern with this line.
although there could be a few spin ups as the surface low tracks
nearby. The northern extent will also depend on how far northeast
the warm front can lift. Primary indications are that it may make
it as far northeast as the I-74 corridor late evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

It's another day of above normal temperatures and a conditional
threat for severe weather. Satellite shows high clouds currently
over central Indiana while surface observations show temperatures
warming into the 70s and dew points creeping higher over the SW
counties.

Thunderstorms will move in this evening, likely entering the state
between 8 and 10 pm and tracking eastward through the overnight
hours. The storms in question are currently over Missouri as of this
afternoon. As they approach, winds will start to increase to
around 10-15 mph with non-thunderstorm gusts possible through the
night. Withe the severe threat, confidence remains low given the
conditional nature. The latest CAMs show that variables may not
line up quite right, but if they do damaging winds will be the
main threat while an isolated tornado and isolated hail can't be
ruled out. Isolated flooding may also be a concern as up to an
inch of rain will be possible as the line of storms moves through
a region that already has a pretty saturated ground.

The best threat for severe weather will be over the SW counties
where the best instability and moisture content will be. As the
storms reach the area, CAPE of 500 to 1000 J/kg are expected,
especially over those SW counties, but looks to drop to less than
500 J/kg over the following few hours. However, latest CAMs are
showing less than impressive shear and helicity over the area and
the surface low driving this system looks to lift as it reaches
central Indiana. Lapse rates of 7 C/km may still be around when the
line arrives but confidence is low and it seems more likely that
those will have dropped off beforehand.

The line of storms and the cold front causing them are expected to
move out of the forecast area by sunrise or shortly after. Highs
tomorrow will be lower and closer to normal, reaching only the mid
50s to low 60s. Otherwise, nice weather is expected for the day
tomorrow with only partly cloudy skies remaining.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Friday night through Monday...

Quiet weather conditions are expected for several days as surface
high pressure remains dominant over the region. Aloft, guidance
shows a few upper level impulses traversing the region which could
help to keep clouds around at times over the weekend. A weak LLJ
associated with an upper disturbance moving through Saturday will
likely help promote breezy conditions. Gusts up to 25 mph are
possible during the day.

Expect temperatures to trend cooler heading into the weekend due to
cold air advection. Lows dropping into the 30s both Saturday/Sunday
night combined with relatively light winds could support the
potential for frost. There is higher confidence in frost Sunday
night into Monday morning at this time since guidance shows much
less cloud cover. Greater cloud cover from an upper level impulse
Saturday night leads to higher uncertainty. Highs are generally
going to range from the low 50s to near 60F over the weekend before
warming up early next week.

Monday night onward...

Rain chances return late Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave
trough and associated low pressure system move across the Great
Lakes Region. Return flow ahead of the approaching system should
allow for temperatures to continue moderating. Sufficient moisture
return combined with increasing dynamics supports likely POPs on
Tuesday. The system is likely going to move out Tuesday night. Cold
air advection and surface high pressure building in behind the
departing low will allow for quiet weather conditions to return
briefly before another system approaches late next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 616 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Impacts:

- Showers and thunderstorms moving in 00Z-02Z and ending 09z-11z

- MVFR and briefly worse flying conditions will accompany the
  convection and MVFR or worse will likely hang around a few
  hours after the convection moves out

- Damaging winds to 50 knots possible in the stronger cells

- Winds will shift to NW, in the wake of the front, with gusts to
near 25 knots, after 05z-15z

Discussion:

Showers and thunderstorms, with the leading edge likely linear, will
sweep across central Indiana late this evening into the overnight.
Deteriorating flying conditions will accompany the convection and
low ceilings will hang around a few hours after frontal passage.

Damaging winds are possible mainly with the leading line and later
winds will turn northwest and gust to near 25 knots behind the cold
front.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

MESOSCALE...MK
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
358 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-192000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-
Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-
Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-
Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-
Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
358 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening and
into tonight. Severe storms are possible with damaging winds as
the primary hazard. A lower risk for large hail, localized flooding,
and tornadoes also exists. Lightning is a hazard with any thunderstorm.

Storm motion will be to the northeast around 35-45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening into tonight.

&&

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at:

http://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ind
http://www.weather.gov/ind

WFO IND