Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
133 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening,
  mainly south of a Jacksonville to Danville line. Large hail,
  damaging winds, and a few tornadoes could occur with these
  storms.

- Much cooler weather after a cold frontal passage late Saturday
  afternoon and Saturday evening. Hard freeze likely Sunday night
  and Monday night may harm any tender emerging vegetation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Subsidence/capping from this morning's convection is still evident
on visible satellite where skies are clear over much of the
northern/eastern CWA. However, destabilization is beginning to
work east from west central IL where an agitated cu field is
expanding. This is occuring ahead of a cold front which stretches
southwest from low pressure over northeast IL back along the IL
River Valley. Output from latest convective allowing models,
including experimental Warn on Forecast, continues to show deep
convection becoming established near the I-72 corridor between
2-3 pm. The environment will be characterized by strong deep
layer shear, courtesy of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak overhead,
and moderate instability with mixed layer CAPE > 2000 J/kg.
Initially these storms should pose a significant hail risk. Veered
boundary layer winds ahead of the front lead to long, straight
hodographs. Thus a low (non-zero) tornado threat will exist owing
to the strong deep layer shear and potential mesoscale influence
of outflow/differential heating boundaries. Upscale growth into
line segments and clusters is expected late afternoon/early
evening over east central and southeast IL. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary risks, but a few tornadoes will
be possible, especially where multiple cell/boundary interactions
occur. The severe risk should diminish over our southeast
counties after 9 pm. Another aspect of these storms will be very
heavy rainfall rates, given Pwats near 90% of climatology and the
strongly forced convection. Fast storm motions would tend to limit
a widespread flood risk, but any training of more intense
convection will lead to a localized flash flood threat.

Behind the front, north winds and low clouds will overspread the
region from the north this evening and overnight. Cold advection
is not overly strong, so we are looking for mid/upper 50s highs on
Friday.

A dry cold front is forecast to cross the region late Saturday
afternoon and evening. Much stronger cold advection and gusty
northwest winds will dominate the region behind this front. 850 mb
temps plunge as low as -10C late Sunday to early Monday. This sets
us up for a hard freeze (mid 20s lows) both Sunday night and
Monday night.

25

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Cold front was located over far northwest IL early this afternoon
and will track southeast across all central IL terminals by 00z.
MVFR ceilings will move in behind the front, possibly dropping to
IFR at times overnight. Confidence was not high enough to include
IFR at this issuance. Scattered TSRA are expected to develop
ahead of the front mid/late afternoon near the I-72 corridor.
There is a low chance that a storm will impact a terminal so
included PROB30 for KSPI-KDEC-KCMI 20z-23z. If a storm does impact
a terminal variable/gusty wind, hail, and brief IFR conditions
will occur. South to south southwest winds will be gusty this
afternoon, veering northwest behind the frontal passage.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
338 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ILZ027>031-036>038-152045-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
338 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-152045-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-
Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-
Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-
Lawrence-
338 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Another round of scattered thunderstorms will develop after 2pm.
Some of these storms will become severe, capable of producing very
large hail greater than two inches in diameter. Sporadic downburst
wind signatures and a tornado or two will also be possible through
10pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed.

Expected storm motion is toward the east-north-east around 45 mph.

MJA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1033 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     Rain             Knoxville               40.91N 90.29W
03/14/2024  M1.46 inch       Knox               IL   Mesonet

            SWOP Observer.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1106 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 AM     Hail             Georgetown              39.97N 87.63W
03/14/2024  M0.88 inch       Vermilion          IL   Public

0528 AM     Hail             Chillicothe             40.92N 89.49W
03/14/2024  M0.88 inch       Peoria             IL   Amateur Radio

            Nickel size hail reported for about a
            minute.

0829 AM     Hail             2 SSW Cadwell           39.65N 88.55W
03/14/2024  M1.00 inch       Moultrie           IL   Public

            Delayed report. Relayed from broadcast
            media. Time estimated from radar.

1215 AM     Hail             Stanford                40.44N 89.22W
03/14/2024  E0.75 inch       McLean             IL   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

1130 PM     Hail             Elkhart                 40.02N 89.48W
03/13/2024  M1.00 inch       Logan              IL   Public

            Relayed via WCIA-TV.

1025 AM     Rain             Knoxville               40.91N 90.29W
03/14/2024  M1.46 inch       Knox               IL   Mesonet

            SWOP Observer.

1213 AM     Hail             Farmington              40.70N 90.01W
03/14/2024  M0.75 inch       Fulton             IL   Emergency Mngr

1010 PM     Hail             4 SSE Vermilion         39.52N 87.57W
03/13/2024  E0.75 inch       Edgar              IL   Public

            dime to penny size hail. relayed via
            broadcast media.

0822 PM     Hail             Lerna                   39.42N 88.29W
03/13/2024  E0.75 inch       Coles              IL   Public

            photo of penny size hail relayed via
            broadcast media.

0831 PM     Hail             4 SSW Charleston        39.43N 88.20W
03/13/2024  E1.75 inch       Coles              IL   Public

            Half dollar to golf ball size hail at BENT
            TREE GOLF COURSE. relayed via broadcast
            media.

0941 PM     Hail             1 N Marshall            39.41N 87.69W
03/13/2024  E1.25 inch       Clark              IL   Public

            reports of dented cars as well.

&&