Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
646 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of severe thunderstorms will race east-southeastward
  out of Iowa this evening. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 70mph
  and isolated tornadoes will be the primary severe weather risks
  mainly along and north of the I-74 corridor.

- Back-building thunderstorm cells overnight will lead to a flash
  flooding risk across parts of central Illinois.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms will form Tuesday
  night...resulting in a risk for flash flooding south of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A vigorous short-wave trough currently over Minnesota into
northwest Iowa will interact with a highly unstable and moderately
sheared environment to create a cluster of thunderstorms across
central/northern Iowa late this afternoon. These cells will
quickly grow upscale into a severe MCS, which will then race E/SE
across north-central Illinois later this evening. While the exact
track of the system varies somewhat among the CAMs, general
consensus suggests it will focus between the I-80 and I-74
corridors. Given extreme instability as noted by SBCAPEs in excess
of 6000J/kg on the 19z KDVN upper air flight, think damaging wind
gusts of 70-80mph will be likely once a cold pool can be
established. While the primary momentum with this MCS may skirt
the KILX CWA just to the north, the S/SW trailing edge of the
system will provide challenges later this evening into the
overnight hours due to backbuilding cells. With precipitable
water values in excess of 2 inches, the storms will be efficient
rain-makers...and with the propensity for training echoes, think
there is a strong potential for flash flooding. Have therefore
issued a Flood Watch for locations along/north of the I-74
corridor tonight. Thunderstorms will settle southward to I-72 and
points southward late tonight: however, the severe weather risk
will decrease with time.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing during the
day Tuesday as a cold front drops slowly southward into the area.
As the nocturnal LLJ strengthens after dark, another round of
showers and thunderstorms will develop near the sagging boundary
Tuesday evening. Considerable uncertainty still exists as to the
exact corridor of heaviest rainfall, but it appears that it will
be focused south of I-70. Have issued a Flood Watch for Effingham,
Jasper, Crawford, Clay, Richland, and Lawrence counties
accordingly.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Once the front passes, a much cooler/drier airmass will settle
into the Midwest for the middle and end of the week. The coolest
days will be Thursday and Friday when highs may remain in the 70s
and overnight lows dip into the 50s. After that, below normal
temperatures are expected to continue through early next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A line of severe thunderstorms is poised to sweep across central
Illinois late this evening with severe wind gusts likely
accompanying the strongest portions of this line. Storms are most
likely to be strongest along the I-74 corridor. After the leading
line of storms, additional clusters of storms will form along the
low level jet late this evening and continue several hours as they
slowly sag south across the I-72 corridor. Additional storms are
possible Tuesday during the day, but chances are best they stay
south of the terminals.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ILZ027>031-037-038-
043>046-055-057.

Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
ILZ066>068-071>073.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
242 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

ILZ027>031-036>038-043>046-161945-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-De Witt-
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-
242 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heat index values this afternoon will range from 105 to 115 degrees.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected beginning this evening.
These storms will be capable of producing damaging winds in excess
of 70 mph, as well as localized flash flooding. An isolated tornado
or two and quarter sized hail is possible within the line of storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue on Tuesday. Isolated damaging
wind
gusts and locally heavy rain will be possible with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed 9pm to 3am.

Expected storm motion is toward the southeast around 45 to 55 mph.

ILZ040>042-047>057-061-161945-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
242 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heat index values this afternoon will range from 105 to 110 degrees.

Scattered thunderstorms tonight will bring a risk of damaging winds
and localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue Tuesday into Tuesday night.
There is some potential for strong to severe storms during this
period, with damaging wind gusts and heavy rain the primary risks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed 9pm to 3am.

Expected storm motion is toward the southeast around 45 to 55 mph.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-161945-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
242 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois and
southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heat indices will peak at 105 to 110 degrees this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are possible after midnight tonight (50 percent
chance). A few storms could be strong with gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions will continue Tuesday, with afternoon heat
index values from 100 to 105 degrees.

Additional thunderstorms are expected Tuesday into early Wednesday.
There is some potential for strong to severe storms during this
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

Copple

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