Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
326 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected tonight into Friday
morning as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Behind
the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for
the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The line of storms has weakened across our area as it has been
moving into a more stable airmass. The one exceptions is along
the southern edge of the line, where a more favorable airmass
has allowed for an isolated persistent supercell. This is moving
into a less favorable airmass too though so do expect an
eventual weakening trend with it.

Good clearing behind the line of storms is allowing for airmass
recovery back across Illinois and Indiana. Hi-res models
continue to show redevelopment in this area back to our west
over the next few hours. Some of this more favorable airmass
will likely advect into at least our western areas through this
evening with the potential for discrete supercells to work east
into our area this evening. This development should then move
east into our area through the evening hours and sag slowly
south as we head into tonight. Hi-res cams continue to suggest
the potential for discrete supercells this evening with this
activity so all weather hazards will remain in place. There are
also some signs of potential training so locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible. The severe threat should decrease through
the overnight hours as the instability begins to weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely still be ongoing
across our south/southeast Friday morning, but should begin to
taper off through late morning and into the afternoon as the
cold front moves through. Developing CAA behind the front will
lead to cooler temps with highs Friday ranging from the lower
50s northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast. Surface high
pressure will begin to build in from the west Friday night,
leading to at least some partial clearing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough will pivot down across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley Saturday through Monday. A series of embedded mid
level short waves will bring some lower chances for rain
showers Saturday night into Sunday and then snow showers on
Monday. Temperatures will steadily cool off through the weekend
and into Monday with highs by Monday only in the mid 30s to
lower 40s.

Surface high pressure will build back into the region on Tuesday
into Wednesday, leading to mainly dry conditions and a bit of a
warm up with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 40s and
50s. Some pcpn chances may return toward Thursday as some mid
level energy moves back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The initial line of storms is moving across eastern Indiana
into western Ohio attm. It will continue to push east across
the TAF sites over the next couple of hours with locally heavy
rain and a period of MVFR to locally IFR conditions possible.
Once the line moves through, we will get into a brief lull in
the pcpn through mid to late afternoon. However, additional
storms are expected to redevelop back across Indiana through
late afternoon and then move east into Ohio through early
evening. The storm activity will then sag slowly south through
the overnight hours. Some severe storms will be possible this
evening with the potential for some large hail and gusty winds
with the stronger storms. Some pcpn will likely linger into
Friday morning before tapering off through late morning and
into early afternoon as a cold front moves through. Prevailing
VFR cigs will trend into MVFR tonight and eventually IFR late
tonight into Friday morning, before trending back to MVFR
Friday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Friday night. MVFR
conditions possible Saturday night and again on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>055-060>063-070>072-077-078-151000-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Hardin-
Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-
Clermont-
347 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, southwest Ohio
and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
Friday morning. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds,
large hail and isolated tornadoes possible. The main severe threat
window will be between 6 PM and midnight. In addition, the storms
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall which may lead to
localized flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay any severe reports to the
National Weather Service.

KYZ097>100-OHZ056-064-065-073-074-079>082-088-151000-
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Licking-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-
Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
347 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern
Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio and southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
Friday morning. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds
and large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The main
severe threat window will be between 7 PM and 1 AM. In addition, the
storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall which may lead to
localized flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay any severe reports to the
National Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
323 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

OHZ079>081-142000-
Highland OH-Adams OH-Brown OH-
323 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
BROWN...NORTHERN ADAMS...WESTERN PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLAND
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 323 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Winchester,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Peebles, Winchester, Seaman, Emerald, Russellville,
Cherry Fork, Sinking Spring, Dunkinsville, Lake Waynoka, May Hill,
Locust Grove, Serpent Mound, Fincastle, and State Route 32 at US
Route 62.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 8389 3895 8393 3910 8340 3884 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 258DEG 40KT 3891 8376

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Campbell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
329 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

KYZ097>100-OHZ088-142100-
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Scioto-
Including the cities of Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet,
Maysville, Tollesboro, Head Of Grassy, Camp Dix, Vanceburg,
Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg
329 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

Thunderstorms which may be strong to severe will be possible
through 5 PM across portions of northeast Kentucky and south
central Ohio.

The strongest storms will be capable of large hail and damaging
winds, and may continue to pose a risk of severe weather before
weakening.

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