Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
631 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected tonight into Friday
morning as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Behind
the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for
the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The line of storms has weakened across our area as it has been
moving into a more stable airmass. The one exceptions is along
the southern edge of the line, where a more favorable airmass
has allowed for an isolated persistent supercell. This is moving
into a less favorable airmass too though so do expect an
eventual weakening trend with it.

Good clearing behind the line of storms is allowing for airmass
recovery back across Illinois and Indiana. Hi-res models
continue to show redevelopment in this area back to our west
over the next few hours. Some of this more favorable airmass
will likely advect into at least our western areas through this
evening with the potential for discrete supercells to work east
into our area this evening. This development should then move
east into our area through the evening hours and sag slowly
south as we head into tonight. Hi-res cams continue to suggest
the potential for discrete supercells this evening with this
activity so all weather hazards will remain in place. There are
also some signs of potential training so locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible. The severe threat should decrease through
the overnight hours as the instability begins to weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely still be ongoing
across our south/southeast Friday morning, but should begin to
taper off through late morning and into the afternoon as the
cold front moves through. Developing CAA behind the front will
lead to cooler temps with highs Friday ranging from the lower
50s northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast. Surface high
pressure will begin to build in from the west Friday night,
leading to at least some partial clearing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough will pivot down across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley Saturday through Monday. A series of embedded mid
level short waves will bring some lower chances for rain
showers Saturday night into Sunday and then snow showers on
Monday. Temperatures will steadily cool off through the weekend
and into Monday with highs by Monday only in the mid 30s to
lower 40s.

Surface high pressure will build back into the region on Tuesday
into Wednesday, leading to mainly dry conditions and a bit of a
warm up with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 40s and
50s. Some pcpn chances may return toward Thursday as some mid
level energy moves back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Airmass is continuing to recover across our area late this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms off to our west and
northwest will continue to fill in as they move east into our
area over the next few hours. These will likely then sag slowly
southeast across our area and may begin to congeal into more of
a consolidated line or area of storms late this evening into
the early overnight hours. Showers and storms will likely
linger across at least our southern areas through the early
morning hours before tapering off from the northwest later
Friday morning as a cold front moves through. Gusty winds and
hail will be possible with the storms through the evening hours
with periods of locally heavy rain persisting into the
overnight hours.

MVFR to locally IFR vsbys and cigs will also be possible with
the stronger storms. Prevailing cigs will eventually trend down
into MVFR late tonight with some IFR cigs possible through mid
to late morning. MVFR cigs will then prevail through Friday
afternoon before conditions begin to improve heading into
Friday night.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday night and again on
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
347 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>055-060>063-070>072-077-078-151000-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Hardin-
Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-
Clermont-
347 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, central Ohio, southwest Ohio
and west central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
Friday morning. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds,
large hail and isolated tornadoes possible. The main severe threat
window will be between 6 PM and midnight. In addition, the storms
will be capable of producing heavy rainfall which may lead to
localized flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay any severe reports to the
National Weather Service.

KYZ097>100-OHZ056-064-065-073-074-079>082-088-151000-
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Licking-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-
Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
347 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern
Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio and southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
Friday morning. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds
and large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The main
severe threat window will be between 7 PM and 1 AM. In addition, the
storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall which may lead to
localized flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to relay any severe reports to the
National Weather Service.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
503 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Tollesboro              38.57N 83.57W
03/14/2024                   Lewis              KY   Law Enforcement

            tree down on car - time estimated.

0435 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 E Tollesboro          38.56N 83.44W
03/14/2024                   Lewis              KY   Law Enforcement

            tree limbs down - time estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
528 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Hail             2 NW Falmouth           38.69N 84.36W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Pendleton          KY   Emergency Mngr

            Photo verified. Time estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     Hail             8 WSW Rockford          40.63N 84.78W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Mercer             OH   Emergency Mngr

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
650 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     Hail             8 WSW Rockford          40.63N 84.77W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Mercer             OH   Emergency Mngr

            Minor damage to homes from hail. Time
            estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
658 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     Tornado          9 NW Coldwater          40.57N 84.74W
03/14/2024                   Mercer             OH   Emergency Mngr

            Structural damage on Skeels Road. Tornado
            sighted by Fire Department. Time estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
717 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     Tornado          4 NW Saint Marys        40.59N 84.45W
03/14/2024                   Auglaize           OH   Emergency Mngr

            EMA reports large tornado on the ground
            north of Highway 33 near the Auglaize/Mercer
            county line. Time estimated.

&&