Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
154 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms likely on this afternoon and evening

- Another round of severe storms looks to impact the region on
  Tuesday

- Additional rounds of storms will continue for Thursday into next
weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper jet
energy/associated upper level wave quickly approaching southwest
Kansas. There is a warm front boundary which extends from
western Kansas into central Kansas. Storms are and should begin
developing over western Kansas and along this warm front
boundary. If a storm can stay latched on this boundary it would
have potential to produce higher end severe weather and even a
tornado. Additonal storms will develop over southwest Kansas and
these storms will be in a higher based environment with cold
outflows expected and lower tornado potential. The cold pool
interaction should cause the storms to congeal quickly and form
a line of storms. The line of storms will grow upscale and
intensify, especially with the environment of high DCAPE and
orthogonal 0-3km bulk shear vector/magnitude supporting good
potential for balance on the leading edge of the line storms.
This balance could result in very destructive wind gusts over
80mph, especially for any segment of the line that takes on a
bowing structure. In addition, increasing low-level SRH and
orthogonal 0- 3km bulk shear vector/magnitude supports a few
QLCS tornadoes on leading edge when the line of storms
encounters better low level moisture. This activity will
continue eastward tonight and could have a trailing/lingering
line of storms near the KS/OK border past midnight.

The atmosphere looks more capped during the day on Monday and with
no upper level wave expected if anything can go it would be more
isolated and generally northwest/north of central Kansas. Model
signals continue to suggest another round of severe weather could
affect locations mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike for Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Stronger than normal upper jet winds and
alignment being more orthogonal to the dry line boundary supports
some discrete supercell potential along the dry line where all
severe weather hazards are in play(a few higher end severe storms
are possible in southeast Kansas). Meanwhile the cold front looks to
race southeast and quickly overtake the dry line which should cause
a line of storms to quickly zipper from northeast Kansas southward
into southern Kansas by Tuesday evening.

Wednesday looks to be the one quiet day of the week as surface high
pressure builds over Kansas, and drier air spreads southward in the
wake of Tuesday's system. The quiet conditions looks to be short-
lived as the atmosphere tries to reload and become more active
across the region for Thursday into next weekend. Models continue to
show upper level flow regime remaining in a southwest-westerly
pattern with decent flow aloft, and a couple of upper waves moving
across the central plains. The combination of decent wind flow aloft
and ample moisture/instability nearby supports more opportunities
for severe weather to affect the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Gusty southeast winds will prevail across much of the region
this afternoon. Meanwhile storms are expected to develop over
central Kansas later this afternoon and parts of western Kansas.
The storms are expected to develop into a line of severe storms
with damaging winds likely. This line will develop around 6pm
to 7pm over central/south central Kansas and race eastward
during the night time hours. Low clouds in the MVFR category
look to develop late tonight over south central Kansas in the
wake of this activity.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
340 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-202045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
340 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon through Tonight

Supercell severe storms capable of tennis ball size hail,
destructive winds greater than 80 mph and tornadoes will affect
portions of central Kansas late this afternoon.

Additional supercell severe storms will be possible early this
evening before becoming more of a line of storms as they move across
central and south central Kansas during the mid to late evening.
These storms will still be capable of destructive winds greater than
80 mph, large hail to at least golf ball size and a tornado.

Strong to marginally severe storms will remain possible to a little
after midnight as they move east from the Flint Hills into parts of
southeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorm development appears unlikely Monday afternoon and
evening across much of the region. However, if a storm or two is
able to form, the environment will support severe weather.

Additional chances for severe storms exist over eastern Kansas
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a
few tornadoes are possible. Stay tuned for later outlooks.

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast Thursday
through early next week. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the
potential for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through the evening, mainly west the
Kansas turnpike.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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