Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
733 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A summerlike weather pattern remains through mid week with mainly
afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
will be well above normal Tuesday through Thursday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be more numerous ahead of a strong cold front
which will cross our region Thursday night and Friday.  Expect drier
and cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 531 PM EDT Monday: Scattered showers and thunder west of I-26
have come to a focus across the northwestern Upstate along an axis
of better deep shear and 2500+ J/kg sbCAPE extending across and
east of the Savannah River Valley.  This activity has prompted a few
severe warnings, mainly for large hail, which stands to reason given
the icy cores but not-so-impressive DCAPE values across the area.
Nonetheless, for cells developing on the southern flank of this
activity, the environment will feature higher DCAPE and thus
support somewhat more of a wind threat as compared to the cells
presently in the corridor from Greenville to Pickens.

Otherwise...as flow turns NW aloft this evening, CAM guidance
continues to depict additional waves of scatter showers and
thunderstorms through late evening...which should then fizzle
as instability wanes.  The latest couple runs of the HRRR now
bring a semi-organized line of cells across the mountains, with
some redevelopment over the western SC Upstate after midnight.
If that happens...instability will be minimal but nonzero, and
shear will remain elevated...such that a stray strong to severe
storm couldn't be ruled out.  Low temps early tomorrow will be
roughly 10 degrees above climatology again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday: A flat upper ridge will be in place across
the area Wednesday with weak short waves rippling through the flow
and across the area. A stronger short wave crosses the area early
Thursday as an upper low moves into the Great Lakes. At the surface,
a weak east/west oriented front stalls over the area Wednesday, with
a cold front moving in from the west on Thursday. The air mass
becomes very unstable Wednesday with moderate shear and mid level
dry air leading to increased DCAPE and sfc delta Theta-E values.
Coverage will be higher across the mountains, but severe storms will
be possible at any location across the area given these parameters.
Moisture increases on Thursday with less mid level dry air, DCAPE,
and sfc delta Theta-E values. Instability also falls, but could
remain in the moderate range while shear increases, approaching
strong territory. Convective coverage still favors the mountains,
but at least likely PoP will be featured across the area. Severe
storms will again be possible, but overall chance is more uncertain.
Highs Wednesday will push 90 degrees outside of the mountains, and
mid to upper 80s in the valleys then fall a few degrees Thursday.
Lows will be well above normal as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday: The Great Lakes low opens into a trough
which moves into the area Friday. A series of short waves keeps the
general troughiness over the eastern CONUS through the end of the
period. With the trough moving in on Friday, cyclogenesis takes
place near the Carolina coast along the cold front that moves
through on Thursday. Guidance keeps going back and forth on the
location of the front and cyclogenesis, along with any lingering
moisture and resulting precip. Have continued the trend of chance
PoP for now given the uncertainty. A series of weak clipper-like low
pressure centers of frontal systems move near or over the area
through the rest of the period. This leads to isolated to possibly
low end scattered showers for the mountains each day with dry
conditions elsewhere. Temps fall to a few degrees below normal by
Saturday, then rise back to near normal through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection is underway across the SC
Upstate and parts of the NC mountains.  Most model guidance
doesn't bring this activity to KCLT directly, although some
lingering showers could certainly make it in the next 1-2 hours.
Some guidance depicts a round of showers and embedded thunderstorms
arriving from the west around and after midnight, but should this
develop it would mainly affect KAVL and the Upstate terminals.
IFR VIS and CIG restrictions are expected again tonight, with
the worst VIS expected for the mountain sites and the worst CIGs
expected virtually everywhere.  This should scatter out quickly
after daybreak Tuesday, followed by prevailing VFR through the
end of the period.  Some additional convection is possible in the
afternoon, but mostly looks to stay confined to the NC zones...and
may not even escape the mountains.

Outlook: Moist profiles will combine with a weak/stalled front
thru the mid-week, resulting in a period of active, mainly diurnal
convec- tive weather each day. There is potential for restrictions
associated with widespread fog and/or low clouds each morning. A
cold front moves in later in the week with continued chances of
diurnal convection.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
451 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-072100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
451 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening.
The main potential hazards with this activity are cloud-to- ground
lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. A few severe
thunderstorms are possible with damaging wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
825 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SCZ010>012-019-070100-
Laurens SC-Abbeville SC-Anderson SC-Greenwood SC-
825 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON...NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN
GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

At 825 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles north of Abbeville, or near Honea Path, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Honea Path, Ware Shoals, Due West, Donalds, Shoals Junction, and
Princeton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 8247 3450 8234 3448 8231 3452 8226
      3438 8215 3431 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 248DEG 13KT 3440 8241

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
836 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

NCZ035-036-056-502-070115-
Iredell NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
836 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CATAWBA...
ALEXANDER...NORTHWESTERN IREDELL AND EAST CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

At 836 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles east of Lenoir to 7 miles southeast of
Taylorsville. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Taylorsville, Stony Point, Love Valley, Lookout Shoals Lake,
Bethlehem, Lake Hickory, Hiddenite, Little River In Alexander County,
Olin, and Millersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 8078 3576 8108 3586 8146 3604 8139
      3602 8135 3600 8133 3603 8127 3604 8119
      3603 8117 3604 8113 3603 8107 3604 8105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 230DEG 12KT 3589 8135 3582 8112

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

8