Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
205 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As a slow moving front sinks further south on Monday, expect showers
and thunderstorms mainly over the mountains.  Drier high pressure
takes control of our weather from Monday night through the rest of
the week.  Temperatures will be just a little below normal through
at least Thursday then a warming trend over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

1. A front crosses the region increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances, especially near and along the I-77 corridor this
afternoon/evening.

2. Shower and thunderstorm chances mostly in the mountains Monday.

3. Cooler temps for Monday.

As of 155 PM Sunday: A strong upper low churns across the Great
Lakes region, extending a trough toward the south. Out west, an
amplifying ridge helps deepen the trough today and through the
forecast period. A modest frontal boundary approaches the area from
the west and moves into the CWA by this evening, bringing with it an
increased chance for showers and thunderstorms. Guidance from the
NAM and RAP show a moderate amount of moisture in the lower levels
with drier air aloft. As skies clear for the afternoon hours,
instability increases and guidance suggests between 2000-2500 J/kg
of sbCAPE at peak heating. Pre-frontal forcing should assist with
convective initiation in the next few hours. As of now, CAMs are
hinting at storm development mostly concentrated along and east of
the I-77 corridor as instability should be greater in this area.
Looking at the upper air soundings, dCAPE values are over 1000 J/kg.
Plenty of dry air aloft and a well mixed boundary layer, support an
environment of enhanced evaporative cooling, fueling increased
chances for microbursts and damaging winds. SPC has included most of
this area in a Slight risk for today with the latest update. This
includes the Charlotte Metro. Hail is also a hazard possible for
today. Chance PoPs (40-60%) for this area through the evening and
over the mountains along the TN/NC border. Once the front moves
through this evening, showers and thunderstorms move eastward and
out of the CWA, leaving behind a quieter night ahead. A shower or
two cannot be ruled out on the ridgetops though. By Monday,
persistent NW flow from the amplifying trough keeps rain chances (40-
60%) once again along the TN/NC border due to lingering moisture and
upslope flow. Not anticipating convective activity outside the
mountains outside the mountains. As for temperatures, drier and
somewhat cooler air behind the front drops highs a few degrees and
closer to climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday: Northwesterly flow aloft remains over the
area through the period as an upper low spins across the eastern
Great Lakes into New England and a ridge builds over the central
CONUS. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the north
through the period bringing in drier and cooler air. There may be
some lingering mountain showers Monday evening, otherwise a dry
forecast is expected. Lows up to 5 degrees below normal Monday night
drop to as much as 10 degrees below normal Tuesday night. Highs will
be 5 to 10 degrees below normal both days, but slightly cooler on
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday: Dry and quiet weather expected through the
period as an upper trough axis that starts over the area slowly
moves east into the Atlantic. A ridge of high pressure starting the
period over the central CONUS slowly moves east into the MS River
Valley. The center of surface high pressure moves from the Mid West
into New England with ridging south of there into our area through
the period. This keeps a dry atmosphere with subsidence over the
area. Temps as much as 10 degrees below normal Thursday slowly rise
back to around normal Sunday as heights rise and the air mass
moderates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Starting the forecast period with prevailing
VFR and persisting at most sites. Showers and TSRA this afternoon
and into the early afternoon as a cold front pushes through the area
today. The environment supports damaging winds and microbursts,
hence a TEMPO for KCLT from 19z-23z. G25 was also added to account
for these storm winds. Confidence is lower west of KCLT for TSRA,
but kept VCSH for KHKY. Once the front moves through, cigs are
likely to decrease to MVFR/IFR at the KAVL early in the morning
hours. It's possible scattered BR could form, but 5-8kt winds should
help with vsby issues. Winds gradually turn and prevail NW through
the end of the period. Low end gusts are expected at KAVL. A few
showers are possible Monday afternoon for the mountain terminals so
added VCSH at KHKY and KAVL.

Outlook: Isolated showers possible TSRA on Monday. Drier conditions
return through at least mid week. Patchy fog and low stratus are
possible early in the week, mainly in the mountain valleys, and
decreases as the week progresses.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
340 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ010-
101>107-191945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-
Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Anderson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
340 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and move east
through the evening hours.  Any storm which develops will be capable
of producing gusty winds and cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-011>014-019-108-109-
191945-
Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-Abbeville-Laurens-
Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
340 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Krentz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
336 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

NCZ065-509-510-SCZ103-182000-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
Greenville Mountains SC-
336 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN POLK AND NORTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 400
PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Hendersonville, or near Saluda, moving southeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Flat Rock, Tryon, Saluda, Tuxedo, North Saluda Reservoir,
Glassy Mountain, and East Flat Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 8215 3519 8221 3519 8222 3518 8222
      3512 8226 3513 8231 3511 8236 3521 8250
      3532 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 299DEG 13KT 3524 8239

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
343 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

NCZ068-508-SCZ008-182030-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-
343 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 430
PM EDT...

At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Forest City, or 5 miles north of Chesnee, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Boiling Springs NC, Cowpens National Battlefield, Chesnee,
Mooresboro, Cliffside, Henrietta, Harris, and Caroleen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
parts of the Piedmont of North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8162 3507 8174 3513 8185 3518 8188
      3519 8195 3519 8196 3532 8189
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 293DEG 10KT 3523 8185

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
421 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

SCZ008-009-182100-
York SC-Cherokee SC-
421 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN YORK AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 421 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gaffney, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gaffney, Blacksburg, Hickory Grove, Smyrna, Kings Mountain State
Park, Cherokee Falls, Draytonville, and Kings Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8176 3518 8175 3516 8137 3497 8139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 277DEG 18KT 3511 8167

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
439 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

NCZ035-036-502-182145-
Iredell NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-
439 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALEXANDER...NORTHERN IREDELL AND
EAST CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 438 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of Boomer to 6 miles northeast of
Lenoir. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Taylorsville, Lenoir, Cedar Rock, Love Valley, Bethlehem, Lake
Hickory, Harmony, Hiddenite, Little River, and Olin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
the Piedmont of North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8070 3598 8070 3580 8134 3595 8154
      3604 8119 3603 8117 3604 8113 3603 8107
      3606 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 284DEG 11KT 3603 8112 3596 8143

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

8

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