River Flood Warning 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will exit the area this evening.
Dry weather will return Wednesday and Thursday, before the next
storm system arrives Friday with another round of rain, gusty winds,
and strong storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm sector continues to lift north across the Upstate, which has
slowed necessitating a downward adj to maxTs generally north of I-85.
A strong line of low-top convec with high rainfall rates is now
exiting east of the area, but light to moderate rainfall will
continue into the early evening as a dry slot is now pushing into
the far wrn zones.

A lot of flooding across the area will take a while to recede and
new flooding, generally main stem rivers, will be possible as high
runoff continues due to highly saturated soils. The Flood Watch will
begin to be pared back across the wrn zones this afternoon after the
current flooding recedes.

Winds will continue moderately gusty this afternoon and the wind
advisory will be kept in place all areas. The high elevation high
wind warning will also be left as is until it expires at 00z as
stronger gusts will develop with deeper mixing and clearing later
this afternoon within the dry slot. There remains a wind advisory
beginning after 03z tonight across the wrn zones and this still
looks good with the expected CAA llvl flow kicking in from the west.

As the sfc cyclone tracks northeast, expect llvl wrap around
moisture to return to the wrn NC mtns. As temps fall, light snow
showers will develop arnd 00z and continue thru daybreak. The
expected QPF is rather low-end due to w/ly flow and no sigfnt source
feed, so total snowfall amts shud remain sub advisory with 1-2
inches expected across the far sw/rn NC mtns, the Smokies, the
Balsams...and less accum across the nrn NC mtns.

Winds will remain gusty and become low-end Wed as temps are held a
little below normal within the cP airmass mix.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM EST Tuesday: A deep and broad longwave trof will remain
in place across much of the nation during the short range period.
Surface high pressure will keep conditions quiet for the Wednesday
night through Thursday night period with temperatures a little above
normal.

Another shortwave trof will come out of the southwestern states into
the Mississippi Valley on Friday inducing a rapidly strengthening
surface low, which will track into the Ohio Valley. This will
quickly pull moisture and rain back into the forecast area due to a
strong low level jet. There was be some mixed precipitation in the
mountains on the front edge of the rain, but this should mostly be a
wet system. Models do show some surface based instability, along
with sufficient wind shear for a severe weather risk, roughly along
and southeast of the Interstate 85 corridor.

Total rainfall with this system will run from a 0.5-1.5 inches,
which should not be enough to create new flooding, but may aggravate
already high flow conditions and delay drops in area rivers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Tuesday: A cold advection pattern will develop in
the wake of the late week system for Friday night and Saturday.
Temperatures over the weekend will be the coolest of recent days
with highs in the 40s in the Piedmont and 30s to lower 40s in the
mountains. Gusty winds should make conditions feel cooler,
especially on Friday night and Saturday.

Models show another system for early next week with some light rain
expected in the Piedmont and perhaps some mixed precipitation in the
mountains. Temperatures will be seasonably cool.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Strong winds off the surface will continue
thru the afternoon and into the evening across all sites, thus LLWS
will remain mentioned thru that time. Tricky timing with CIGS as VFR
in rain is showing up at KAND as a dry slot begins to work in. Will
maintain IFR or lower all sites with IFR VSBY as well and TEMPO
lower at KCLT as a convective line traverse the area over the next
couple hrs. Winds will remain gusty at all sites as the cold air
advection kicks in later this evening and winds shift more sw/ly to
w/ly. VFR conds return at KCLT arnd 23z and a little earlier over
the wrn sites, expect KAND and KAVL where MVFR CIGS may linger into
the overnight period.

Outlook: Drying is expected Wednesday through Thursday with VFR
conditions, then another storm system begins to impact the area
Friday into the weekend with more widespread restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-017.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-035-049-050-
     052-053-056-059-062>065-068>070-501>510.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ048>053-058-
     059-062>065.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082-501>510.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059.
     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday
     for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ036-037-057-
     071-072-082.
SC...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ008-010-101>109.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for SCZ008>014-019-
     101>109.
     Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening for SCZ009-013-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SCW
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...SBK

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