Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

936 
WGUS52 KGSP 091907
FFWGSP
NCC089-092300-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240109T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
207 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended 
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Henderson County in western North Carolina...

* Until 600 PM EST.

* At 207 PM EST, Excessive runoff continued across Henderson 
  County.  Flooding along most French Broad tributaries will 
  continue all afternoon which includes robust flooding across 
  greater Hendersonville.  Also be wary of flooding along the Green 
  River as well.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Gauges reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rain has increased the risk of landslides, especially in areas 
where slides have occurred in the past. Be especially alert if you 
are near a stream, especially at the base of a mountain or in a 
cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a sudden increase in 
streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is observed. When driving 
along roads where the terrain is steep or rocky, watch and listen 
for falling rocks, mud, trees and other debris.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 8227 3539 8226 3529 8235 3519 8235
      3518 8237 3522 8239 3517 8244 3518 8248
      3514 8257 3529 8261 3542 8274 3546 8267
      3544 8262 3544 8255 3542 8253 3544 8254
      3547 8242 3546 8236 3548 8237 3550 8233

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
700 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will impact the area through this
evening, with heavy rainfall and very windy conditions expected
across the region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop
this afternoon in locations outside of the mountains. Dry weather
will return Wednesday and Thursday, before the next storm system
arrives Friday into Saturday with possibly another round of heavy
rain, gusty winds, and strong storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 am EST Tuesday: Our event is well underway at this hour,
with precip covering nearly the entire forecast area. The table has
been set for a busy day. We have a number of problems to discuss,
so let's get right to it.

Changes for this update include an expansion of thunder to cover
most of the area east of the mtns right away this morning. Elevated
instability was doing the trick across north GA early this morning
and that trend has continued into northeast GA and the western
Upstate. The main severe threat still appears to be this afternoon,
however. A new Wind Advisory was issued for the mountains to take
care of the very strong wind gusts on the cold advection side
of the system after it departs tonight. There is a gap of time
during which the wind will be in a lull. The wind picks up again
from the west during the mid/late evening and will continue from
that direction into Wednesday morning.

Otherwise...the best precip rates have been over the southerly
upslope areas of northeast GA/western Upstate SC/southern mtns
of NC, more or less where we expected early in the event, with
amounts starting to add up. This was soaking down the area and
priming it for problems later on this morning when even heavier
rain seen upstream over north GA and eastern AL gets here thru
late morning. The latest QPF from WPC has come down just a bit, as
have the 6hr prob matched mean precip on the 00Z run of the HREF,
but what remains is still more than adequate to support keeping the
Flood Watch intact. We could contemplate putting Graham and Swain
in there as well, but at this point it is probably academic. The
lower Piedmont of SC/Lakelands remains out of the Watch, but that
still looks ok. No changes to the Flood Watch.

As for the Winter Weather Advisory, there may still be a few
isolated pockets of near freezing temps close to the Blue Ridge
Escarpment north of I-40, but the continued gradual warming across
the nrn mountains/foothills should have taken care of what's left
in very short order. Thus, we will let the Advisory go on schedule.

As for the Wind situation, it has been somewhat underwhelming
thus far as the strongest winds have been riding up over the
very shallow stable layer across the mtns. However, the higher
peaks are gradually encountering the stronger winds and the gusts
have been creeping upward. Think we are still on track early this
morning. Guidance suggests we will start to mix deeply enough over
the lower Piedmont starting around 15Z to bring frequent wind gusts
of 40-45kt or so down to the ground. The wind gust potential should
then spread northward thru the rest of the morning and into the
afternoon as we uncover more of the fcst area. Guidance suggest
the winds will persist into tonight. More on that later.

The other primary concern is the severe thunderstorm potential. Only
minor changes were made to the new Day 1 Outlook from SPC and that
seems reasonable. Clearly the potential looks better to our S and E
this afternoon and evening, but we still have a good shot at severe
storms. The synoptic scale models bring a plume of low sfc-based
CAPE of 300-500 J/kg across the area along/SE of I-85 from late
morning thru late afternoon ahead of the sfc front, to go along
with what looks like very strong shear. The pattern resembles many
high shear/low CAPE severe weather episodes we have seen over the
years, with a dry punch coming in behind a very strongly forced sfc
boundary. The CAMs in the 00Z HREF do not disappoint, with most
showing some updraft helicity streaks over the area from AND to
GSP to HKY and points east...basically where the plume of weak CAPE
would reach. This checks just about all the boxes for a severe wind
producing squall line across that area, with occasional brief/weak
tornadoes where the line breaks or where embedded meso-vortices
persist. Such brief tornadic circulations are notoriously difficult
to warn with much lead time. Expect part of the area will end up in
some sort of SVR/TOR Watch at some point this afternoon, so be on
the lookout for that. The severe weather threat/additional flooding
threat will end from the west with the passage of the main front.

Tonight, with the front to the east, colder air will move in that
should change any remaining precip over the mtns over to snow
showers thru the mid/late evening. The flow looks unconventional
as it veers from SW to W overnight, but there is enough moisture
that is deep enough into the dendritic growth zone such that
snow showers are a good bet. The westerly flow favors parts of
the Smokies, in particular western Graham County. We may need
to consider a small Winter Weather Advisory depending on how the
forecast trend goes today.

Wind will continue to be a problem tonight, particularly over
the mtns as the cold advection flow takes hold. Guidance has
strong wind gusts persisting through Wednesday morning, so a Wind
Advisory will be issued/extended across the higher terrain through
18Z Wednesday. East of the mtns, it will also be blustery, but
not to the extent that an Advisory is warranted, but this could
also change.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Tuesday: The axis of the closed upper low will be
east of the CFWA by daybreak Wednesday as the better associated
forcing and moisture pulls away. Low-level west-northwest CAA
will continue to filter into the region, but shallow moisture
levels will quickly dry up and essentially shut off any ongoing
snow showers along the NC/TN border by Wednesday afternoon. Some
low-end gusty winds are expected during the day Wednesday as the
surface pressure gradient gradually loosens and continuous CAA
spills into the region. Otherwise, much drier conditions will be
in store through the rest of the forecast period as the flow aloft
remains progressive as the southern stream jet remains active. Weak
high pressure will be in control through Thursday night as heights
gradually rise and the airmass modifies ahead of the next system
that will impact the area most of the day Friday. Temperatures
will be near-normal Wednesday as a downslope component will help
offset CAA outside of the mountains. Decent radiational cooling
conditions will support slightly below normal temperatures Wednesday
night. Warmer thicknesses and a ongoing downslope component allows
temperatures to rise a few ticks above normal for highs Thursday
afternoon. Weak wedge-configuration settling in with high pressure
slipping east off the southern/central Appalachians and increasing
cloud cover overnight Thursday will help keep low temperatures
slightly above to near-normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Tuesday: Model consensus continue be in better
agreement with the overall pattern and setup in regards to the next
system expected Friday into Saturday. Digging upper shortwave trough
will be centered over the southern/central Plains Friday morning as
the center track of the storm system will deepen as it progresses
from the lower/mid MS Valley through the OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes
region, while undergoing surface cyclogenesis. Weak in-situ wedge
will be in place Friday morning and antecedent cool and dry air will
support a brief period of mixed wintry p-types across the normal
locations along the Blue Ridge Escarpment and higher elevations
at the onset Friday morning before the associated WAA turns the
precip to all liquid. The system is more progressive compared to
today's system, but there are a good bit of similarities between
today's system and this one. The rainfall amounts will not be as
potent with this system, but gusty winds will become a concern
as the wind energy will be stout. Latest model guidance hold
on to the wedge across the area as the main frontal zone pushes
through the area on Friday, which could lower the potential for
severe weather. Guidance still suggest that the warm sector will
help to erode the wedge and allow for an unstable environment to
slowly develop. The kinematic field won't be an issue in regards
to severe weather, but the question per usual during this time of
the year is how much surface instability can we muster up ahead of
the organized convection. With that being said, SPC has issued a
15% slight risk area across the CFWA in locations outside of the
mountains for Friday afternoon/evening. Hydro issues will likely
arise due to the previous rainfall and the already saturated soils
still lingering from the early week storm threat.

Otherwise, this system will lift out of the area just in time for
the weekend as much drier air spills over the region, outside of
some scattered snow showers along the NC/TN border on Saturday. We
will likely remain under broad upper troughiness with weak high
pressure in control through the end of the forecast period. An
interesting set up is showing up in guidance by D7, but still a
lot more questions than answers this far out before going into
the nitty gritty details as differences between model guidance
suggests they don't know what the heck is going to happen with
the sensible weather beyond this upcoming weekend. Temperatures
are expected to begin the period at or slightly above normal on
Friday before below-normal values settle in through the rest of
the medium range following Friday's system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Going to be a rough day for aviation. We
begin with widespread IFR/LIFR ceiling restrictions in place with
light/moderate precip spreading rapidly northeast across the fcst
area at issuance time, and conditions will not improve until this
afternoon. Seeing more embedded thunder than expected, so the
Upstate terminals and KAVL get a TEMPO for TSRA right away. Winds
should pick up from the SE by mid-morning, but LLWS was already
occurring as the strongest winds aloft translate overhead. The rest
of the morning will be characterized by widespread IFR ceiling/vis
with patches of LIFR as heavier showers move through. The CAMs
suggest the timing of a squall line of thunderstorms in the early
afternoon crossing KCLT, so that was included in a TEMPO. A strong
cold front will cross the region in the late afternoon to bring
an end to the precip and the IFR restrictions for the most part,
while the core of the strong low level winds departs and ends the
LLWS. Sfc winds will only veer slightly to SW with fropa. We retain
the gusty winds overnight, but with conditions rapidly going to
VFR by sunset.

Outlook: Drying is expected Wednesday through Thursday with VFR
conditions, then another storm system begins to impact the area
Friday into the weekend with more widespread restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-017.
     Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ048>053-058-
     059-062>065.
     Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ033-035-049-050-052-
     053-056-059-062>065-068>070-501>510.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
     High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059.
     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday
     for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065.
     Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ036-037-057-071-072-
     082.
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ008-010-101>109.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for SCZ008>014-019-101>109.
     Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ009-013-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
713 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

GAZ026-028-NCZ056-068>070-SCZ008-010-107-109-101215-
Franklin-Hart-Catawba-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Cherokee-Anderson-
Southern Greenville-Southern Spartanburg-
713 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the western
Piedmont of North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

In addition to the heavy rain and wind threats, thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the area through the afternoon. A squall
line may develop and move across the region during the late morning
and afternoon ahead of the main cold front. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary threat, but a few brief and weak tornadoes will also
be possible mainly along and east of Interstate 85. The threat will
end with the passage of the front in the late afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-SCZ009-013-014-101215-
Iredell-Davie-Rowan-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-York-Union SC-
Chester-
713 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

In addition to the heavy rain and wind threats, thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the area through the afternoon. A squall
line may develop and move across the region during the late morning
and afternoon ahead of the main cold front. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary threat, but a few brief and weak tornadoes will also
be possible mainly along and east of Interstate 85. The threat will
end with the passage of the front in the late afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ029-SCZ011-012-019-101215-
Elbert-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-
713 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

In addition to the heavy rain and wind threats, thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the area through the afternoon. A squall
line may develop and move across the region during the late morning
and afternoon ahead of the main cold front. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary threat, but a few brief and weak tornadoes will also
be possible mainly along and east of Interstate 85. The threat will
end with the passage of the front in the late afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ048-051-058-101215-
Madison-Swain-Graham-
713 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING BELOW
3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ049-050-052-059-101215-
Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Northern Jackson-
713 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING BELOW
3500 FEET...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Wind Advisory.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ053-062>065-101215-
Buncombe-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
713 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-NCZ035-501>510-SCZ101>106-108-101215-
Stephens-Alexander-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-
713 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-101215-
Avery-
713 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-101215-
Rabun-Habersham-
713 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
847 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 SW Burnsville         35.86N 82.35W
01/09/2024  E58 MPH          Yancey             NC   Public

            Slickrock Mtn, elevation 4600 ft. Via
            X/Twitter.

&&

Wimberley

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
850 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     Freezing Rain    Little Switzerland      35.85N 82.09W
01/09/2024  E0.20 inch       McDowell           NC   Emergency Mngr

0804 AM     Freezing Rain    4 ENE Fairview          35.54N 82.33W
01/09/2024  E0.25 inch       Buncombe           NC   Public

            Elev 3000 ft.

&&