Tornado Warning 17, NWS Goodland, KS

757 
WWUS53 KGLD 080025
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
725 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

KSC065-179-080045-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-240608T0045Z/
Sheridan KS-Graham KS-
725 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL SHERIDAN AND WEST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES...

At 724 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 6 miles southeast of Hoxie, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Tasco and Studley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 10041 3933 10039 3940 10017 3924 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 262DEG 12KT 3929 10035 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN

$$

JN

012 
WWUS53 KGLD 080043
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
743 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

KSC065-179-080053-
/O.EXP.KGLD.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-240608T0045Z/
Sheridan KS-Graham KS-
743 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SHERIDAN AND WEST CENTRAL
GRAHAM COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However, small hail and gusty winds are still
possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 10041 3933 10039 3940 10017 3924 10011
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 262DEG 12KT 3930 10027 

$$

JN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
506 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is possible this afternoon and evening with
  hail up to two inches, and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Overall
  storm chances are around 65%. Severe weather is expected to be
  more isolated to scattered, not widespread across the area.

- Another round of severe weather looks likely with 1.5-2 inch
  hail, 60-70 MPH winds, and excessive rain leading to flooding
  concerns.

- Active weather pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with
  similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the
  afternoon/evening.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 331 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Storms firing off of the dryline near highway 25 and in western
Cheyenne county in Colorado are in an environment that will
promote explosive growth of storms. This could lead to storms
producing hail around 2 inches in diameter and winds nearing 75
MPH. This has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued
for a large portion of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This afternoon, there is a 500mb high pressure system sitting in New
Mexico/Texas with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A
shortwave is forming in northeastern Colorado and will move over the
CWA over the next few hours, allowing an 850mb lee low to form in
eastern Colorado. The lee low will move on east, bringing a weak
cold front with it. The FROPA will be leaving eastern Colorado
around 20-21Z, convection is expected to form in its wake.

The convection will continue to fire along/behind the FROPA in
clusters and are generally expected to be elevated across most of
the CWA, as evident with inverted-V soundings. There will be plenty
of instability, around 2,500-3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE and shear will be
plentiful with 40-50 kts of effective wind shear. Hail will be the
primary threat throughout most of the CWA, but winds up to 70-80 MPH
could be possible in the far eastern CWA as storms collapse with
over 1,500 J/kg of DCAPE, potentially as a downburst.

The storms most likely to produce severe weather will be in Kansas,
and along and north of I-70. Storm motion looks to be fairly quick
north of I-70, with 40-60 kts of downshear velocities. Storms look
to leave the area around 6-9Z to the east/northeast.

Overnight temperatures will be kept fairly warm due to lingering
cloud cover, only allowing temperatures to cool down to the lower
60s. The cloud cover will stunt warming up tomorrow, too. However
high temperatures tomorrow look to warm into the upper 70s to mid
80s. Temperatures will be the warmest in the southern CWA tomorrow,
which will aid in convective storms.

In the upper and mid levels, tomorrow's setup looks very similar to
today's; a shortwave creating a lee low. The biggest difference will
be the convection looks to occur a couple hours later in the day and
we will have northeasterly moisture return during the day ahead of
the storms. The convective parameters are noticeably different for
tomorrow though. Instabilty is reduced tomorrow, with "only" 2,000-
2,750 J/kg MUCAPE, with a long, skinny CAPE profile, and PWATS over
1.3 inches. Although the instability is a little high for ideal
parameters, the soundings look primed for excessive rainfall and
flooding. Downshear velocity is still around 50 kts, however CAMs
are suggesting this event will turn into a large cluster or MCS
event. These storms could produce hail around 1.5 inches and wind
gusts around 60-70 MPH.

Over the past 12 hours, the models are showing the lee low has
shifted north into the GLD CWA. My confidence is not high (~35%) it
will remain this far north, but will instead shift back south where
it has been showing. With the northern track, Wallace county looks
to be at the highest risk for excessive rainfall, but with the
southern track, Wichita county is the focus. Either way, there is a
risk for excessive rainfall leading to flooding tomorrow. Storms
look to move in around 21Z and last until 9-12Z. Tomorrow's low
temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This general upper and mid level pattern continues into Tuesday,
giving us a diurnal chance at showers and storms. Monday does look
to have a slightly more developed 500mb low sweeping across the
area, so we will need to keep a close eye on the severe potential
for Monday evening. Sunday and Monday will be cooler with
temperatures remaining in the 70. Tuesday, the cloud cover looks to
break and we will warm into the 80s again

After Tuesday, a ridge looks to extend over the CWA and work to
lower convective chances. This ridge will also usher in hot
temperatures and by Thursday, numerous locations could be looking at
triple digit heat. At the end of the long-term, we are seeing signs
of an upper-level trough cutting into the region that could bring
precipitation and cooler temperatures. Details are not clear yet
about this system, but we will be keeping an eye on it.

Throughout the long-term, low temperatures range in the mid 50s
through upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Main focus will be on showers and storms across the area which
will remain isolated to scattered. Watching for the potential
for strong to damaging wind gusts at the KGLD terminal as
outflow emanating from cells in northeast Colorado should help
strengthen the showers and storms currently across Kit Carson
county. Supercell to the west of KMCK shouldn't directly impact
the terminal other than lightning being the main threat. Off
and storms look to occur for the majority of the evening. Fairly
good consensus in low stratus affecting each terminal tomorrow
before another round of storms moves in from the west.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
331 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

COZ092-KSZ002>004-014>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ080-081-082145-
Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-
Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
331 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 /431 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

This afternoon and evening, we expect to see severe thunderstorms
capable of producing hail up to two inches, wind gusts up to 75 mph,
and maybe a brief tornado. Widespread severe weather is not
currently anticipated. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
until tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Saturday, there is a low chance for a severe thunderstorm or two
during the evening hours, mainly south of Highway 36. Flooding may
also occur with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is highly encouraged!

COZ090-091-KSZ001-013-NEZ079-082145-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Sherman-Dundy-
331 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 /431 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

This afternoon, severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail up to
two inches, wind gusts up to 75 mph, may occur briefly before moving
off to the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Saturday, there is a low chance for a severe thunderstorm or two
during the evening hours, mainly south of Highway 36. Flooding may
also occur with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
559 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Hail             2 NW Seguin             39.36N 100.63W
06/07/2024  E1.75 Inch       Sheridan           KS   Public

            X picture of quarter and half dollar coins
            with numerous hail stones around them
            ranging from ping pong ball to golf ball.

&&

TT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
607 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Hail             3 E Kanorado            39.33N 101.97W
06/07/2024  E1.00 Inch       Sherman            KS   NWS Employee

            Pea to quarter sized hail that was wind
            driven. Time estimated via report/radar.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
609 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 NW Bethune            39.40N 102.51W
06/07/2024  M62 MPH          Kit Carson         CO   Mesonet

            Seven Farms - KCOSTRAT21.

&&

TT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
610 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Hail             2 WNW Hoxie             39.36N 100.47W
06/07/2024  M1.75 Inch       Sheridan           KS   Trained Spotter

            Golf ball sized hail reported over a
            duration of five minutes.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
611 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Hail             Hoxie                   39.35N 100.44W
06/07/2024  E1.25 Inch       Sheridan           KS   Public

            Reported via social media. Quarter to half
            dollar sized hail accumulating on the
            ground. North-side windows of a house broken
            from hail.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
616 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     Hail             5 NE Oberlin            39.88N 100.47W
06/07/2024  M2.50 Inch       Decatur            KS   Public

            Reported via social media. 2.25 inch hail
            fell northeast of Oberlin. Hail lasted about
            4 minutes. Time estimated via report.

&&

KMK