Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
506 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is possible this afternoon and evening with
  hail up to two inches, and wind gusts up to 70 mph. Overall
  storm chances are around 65%. Severe weather is expected to be
  more isolated to scattered, not widespread across the area.

- Another round of severe weather looks likely with 1.5-2 inch
  hail, 60-70 MPH winds, and excessive rain leading to flooding
  concerns.

- Active weather pattern continues Sunday through Tuesday with
  similar trend of storms moving in from the west during the
  afternoon/evening.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 331 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Storms firing off of the dryline near highway 25 and in western
Cheyenne county in Colorado are in an environment that will
promote explosive growth of storms. This could lead to storms
producing hail around 2 inches in diameter and winds nearing 75
MPH. This has prompted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued
for a large portion of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This afternoon, there is a 500mb high pressure system sitting in New
Mexico/Texas with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. A
shortwave is forming in northeastern Colorado and will move over the
CWA over the next few hours, allowing an 850mb lee low to form in
eastern Colorado. The lee low will move on east, bringing a weak
cold front with it. The FROPA will be leaving eastern Colorado
around 20-21Z, convection is expected to form in its wake.

The convection will continue to fire along/behind the FROPA in
clusters and are generally expected to be elevated across most of
the CWA, as evident with inverted-V soundings. There will be plenty
of instability, around 2,500-3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE and shear will be
plentiful with 40-50 kts of effective wind shear. Hail will be the
primary threat throughout most of the CWA, but winds up to 70-80 MPH
could be possible in the far eastern CWA as storms collapse with
over 1,500 J/kg of DCAPE, potentially as a downburst.

The storms most likely to produce severe weather will be in Kansas,
and along and north of I-70. Storm motion looks to be fairly quick
north of I-70, with 40-60 kts of downshear velocities. Storms look
to leave the area around 6-9Z to the east/northeast.

Overnight temperatures will be kept fairly warm due to lingering
cloud cover, only allowing temperatures to cool down to the lower
60s. The cloud cover will stunt warming up tomorrow, too. However
high temperatures tomorrow look to warm into the upper 70s to mid
80s. Temperatures will be the warmest in the southern CWA tomorrow,
which will aid in convective storms.

In the upper and mid levels, tomorrow's setup looks very similar to
today's; a shortwave creating a lee low. The biggest difference will
be the convection looks to occur a couple hours later in the day and
we will have northeasterly moisture return during the day ahead of
the storms. The convective parameters are noticeably different for
tomorrow though. Instabilty is reduced tomorrow, with "only" 2,000-
2,750 J/kg MUCAPE, with a long, skinny CAPE profile, and PWATS over
1.3 inches. Although the instability is a little high for ideal
parameters, the soundings look primed for excessive rainfall and
flooding. Downshear velocity is still around 50 kts, however CAMs
are suggesting this event will turn into a large cluster or MCS
event. These storms could produce hail around 1.5 inches and wind
gusts around 60-70 MPH.

Over the past 12 hours, the models are showing the lee low has
shifted north into the GLD CWA. My confidence is not high (~35%) it
will remain this far north, but will instead shift back south where
it has been showing. With the northern track, Wallace county looks
to be at the highest risk for excessive rainfall, but with the
southern track, Wichita county is the focus. Either way, there is a
risk for excessive rainfall leading to flooding tomorrow. Storms
look to move in around 21Z and last until 9-12Z. Tomorrow's low
temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This general upper and mid level pattern continues into Tuesday,
giving us a diurnal chance at showers and storms. Monday does look
to have a slightly more developed 500mb low sweeping across the
area, so we will need to keep a close eye on the severe potential
for Monday evening. Sunday and Monday will be cooler with
temperatures remaining in the 70. Tuesday, the cloud cover looks to
break and we will warm into the 80s again

After Tuesday, a ridge looks to extend over the CWA and work to
lower convective chances. This ridge will also usher in hot
temperatures and by Thursday, numerous locations could be looking at
triple digit heat. At the end of the long-term, we are seeing signs
of an upper-level trough cutting into the region that could bring
precipitation and cooler temperatures. Details are not clear yet
about this system, but we will be keeping an eye on it.

Throughout the long-term, low temperatures range in the mid 50s
through upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Main focus will be on showers and storms across the area which
will remain isolated to scattered. Watching for the potential
for strong to damaging wind gusts at the KGLD terminal as
outflow emanating from cells in northeast Colorado should help
strengthen the showers and storms currently across Kit Carson
county. Supercell to the west of KMCK shouldn't directly impact
the terminal other than lightning being the main threat. Off
and storms look to occur for the majority of the evening. Fairly
good consensus in low stratus affecting each terminal tomorrow
before another round of storms moves in from the west.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
331 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

COZ092-KSZ002>004-014>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ080-081-082145-
Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-
Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
331 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 /431 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

This afternoon and evening, we expect to see severe thunderstorms
capable of producing hail up to two inches, wind gusts up to 75 mph,
and maybe a brief tornado. Widespread severe weather is not
currently anticipated. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued
until tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Saturday, there is a low chance for a severe thunderstorm or two
during the evening hours, mainly south of Highway 36. Flooding may
also occur with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is highly encouraged!

COZ090-091-KSZ001-013-NEZ079-082145-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Sherman-Dundy-
331 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 /431 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

This afternoon, severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail up to
two inches, wind gusts up to 75 mph, may occur briefly before moving
off to the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Saturday, there is a low chance for a severe thunderstorm or two
during the evening hours, mainly south of Highway 36. Flooding may
also occur with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested.

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