River Flood Warning 16, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
639 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms will exit northwest IA and southwest
  MN early this morning.

- Windy conditions with northwesterly winds gusting to 30-40
  mph today.

- Periodic showers and thunderstorms for Memorial Day weekend.
  While we are not currently expecting strong storms, lightning
  is still possible. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

There could be a few lingering showers east of Interstate 29 through
mid morning on Friday, before the surface trough slides into the
eastern portions of MN and IA by mid day. With cold air advection
behind the exiting wave and a fairly tight surface pressure gradient
persisting, it will be a breezy day with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. It
will be a much cooler day as 850 mb temperatures fall into the teens
C, and highs will be in the 60s. With clearing skies and dying winds
on Friday night, lows will fall into the 40s.

For the holiday weekend leading into Memorial Day, look for warming
temperatures - though remaining just below normal for this time of
year. This will play out to highs for Saturday-Monday generally in
the lower 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Unfortunately
the active weather pattern continues, as yet another shortwave and
associated surface low eject into the Central Plains on Saturday
night into Sunday - this to be followed by another shortwave on
Monday. This will bring a chance of periodic showers and
thunderstorms through the period. Instability and/or shear look to
be on the lower side during this time frame, so severe chances are
low. Rainfall amounts do not look especially significant, averaging
around a quarter of an inch for any 24 hour period.

Models are then in decent agreement on an upper level ridge building
across the region for Tuesday through Thursday of next week. This
will finally bring a drier period, along with a gradual warming
trend, as highs warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Toward the end
of the period, the ridge starts to flatten out, bringing another
chance of precipitation by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

MVFR ceilings will drift into central SD early this morning and
linger through possibly noon. KHON should be the only site
affected. Otherwise strong northwest winds will gust to around
40 mph at times today.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
428 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-250930-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
428 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska,
central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central
South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rain and isolated thunderstorms will exit southwest Minnesota and
northwest Iowa early this morning. Behind the rain and storms
northwest winds will increase with gusts around 40 mph likely
through the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday night into
Memorial Day. While severe weather is currently not anticipated,
lightning is still possible. When thunder roars, go indoors!

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
533 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     Hail             Newell                  42.61N 95.00W
05/24/2024  E1.25 Inch       Buena Vista        IA   Public

            Photo and report via social media. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

SG