Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2024
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2024, 9:43 PM CDT for Grant County, Otter Tail County, Wilkin County, Minnesota. It was in force for 62 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 13, 2024, 9:43 PM CDT (02:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 13, 2024, 10:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 62 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.0 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Grant County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Wilkin County, MN
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 173 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 5:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 235 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2213 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -136 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1689 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 51 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 36 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.7
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 7:26 PM CDT, 2 hours 17 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Ongoing heat impacts will continue through early evening today. Impacts will be highest for heat sensitive or vulnerable groups and anyone without effective cooling or hydration.
- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across northwest Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. A level 1 out of 5 risk exists in northeastern North Dakota.
- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday morning.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 7:26 PM CDT, 2 hours 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
726 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Ongoing heat impacts will continue through early evening
today. Impacts will be highest for heat sensitive or
vulnerable groups and anyone without effective cooling or
hydration.
- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
across northwest Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. A level
1 out of 5 risk exists in northeastern North Dakota.
- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Thunderstorms have formed this afternoon along a boundary that
stretches from around Halstad, MN to Bemidji, MN. Environmental
conditions continue to support the formation of severe
thunderstorms through the remainder of the evening, which could
include large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
...Synopsis...
The large scale pattern will continue to feature mid/upper ridging
continuing over southwest US/Great Basin, while westerly flow in the
Northern Plains transitions to north-northwest flow behind a
mid/upper trough later Sunday night into Monday. The shift in flow
will bring much cooler (mild) temperatures back to the region, while
overall precipitation chances diminishing as drier/more stable air
moves in place. There could still be some fast moving waves in that
type of pattern but consensus shows very low potential for wetting
precipitation after Monday.
...Severe weather potential today and tonight...
Forcing mechanisms that could help initiate convection will continue
to be the biggest question which reflects the large spread in CAMs
coverage through this evening, lowering confidence in location of
impacts at any one location. Current features of interest are weak
low pressure near southeast ND, several older outflow boundaries
in MN and a well defined frontal zone (cold front)/theta-e axis to
our northwest where much more agitated CU has been in place and
farther north in Canada several supercells have developed. If
initiation takes place the environment features high CAPE, high
moisture. THere are reasonable amounts of effective and 0-3km shear
(30-35kt), and this would support severe organization and the
potential for supercells. Cold pool interactions would likely be
necessary for higher coverage/clustering and wet microbursts and
large hail may remain the primary threats though there are areas
where low level veering could support a limited tornado
threat. It is an event that could end up with isolated or very
little in the way of severe convection, or scattered/higher
impact severe impacts and ultimately we will need to monitor
trends through the evening. By later tonight an MCS may track to
our southwest, but there is much more consistency on this
remaining southwest of our CWA now (a few outliers show it near
southeast ND during the 3-6am period but these were older runs.
...Severe weather potential Sunday afternoon into Monday morning...
Unlike today, we actually have a period of organized forcing to
track as a mid/upper low and stronger cold front drop south into the
region out of Canada Sunday evening into Monday morning, with much
higher shear but not as extreme instability. The combination should
support the potential for supercells or clusters/MCS development.
As drier/more stable air quickly filters into the region behind the
front the severe threat may actually diminish based on latest
guidance as the frontal zone scours out our CWA. There could still
be a window for ongoing severe weather during the Monday morning
hours if the cold front is a bit slower in our east-southeast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 551 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
As a shortwave trough moves through the FGF CWA, thunderstorm
development is expected, especially along the cold front the MN/ND
border, potentially impacting FAR and BJI TAF sites between 1Z-4Z.
Uncertainty in exact coverage and location remains. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals, but brief
MVFR and IFR conditions are possible as a result of these
thunderstorms. After this storm system moves through, winds are
expected to be light and variable through the rest of the TAF
period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ030-038-039-
049-052-053.
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-029-
030-040.
&&
UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJRHazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 7:50 AM CDT, 13 hours 53 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 750 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 MNZ001-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032-NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>029-054-141300- West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall- East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk- North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard- West Becker-East Becker-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Western Walsh- 750 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms today into tonight. The main hazards will be hail to 2 inches, 70 mph wind gusts. Tornado is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Sunday...Level 2 out of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk for strong winds and large hail. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required today. MNZ002-003-029-030-040-NDZ030-038-039-049-052-053-141300- Norman-Clay-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-Grant-Traill-Barnes-Cass- Ransom-Sargent-Richland- 750 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A heat advisory is also in effect for this afternoon with heat indicies expected to crest 100 degrees. There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms today into tonight. The main hazards will be hail to 2 inches, 70 mph wind gusts. Tornado is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Sunday...Level 2 out of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk for strong winds and large hail. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required today.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 13, 8:11 PM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>Local storm report, Jul 13, 8:44 PM CDT, 59 minutes before
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>Local storm report, Jul 13, 9:03 PM CDT, 40 minutes before
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
<title>Service Notice</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
<main class="wrap">
<section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
<div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
<h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
<p id="message1">
The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
</p>
<p id="message2">
Please try again in a few minutes.
</p>
<p class="small" id="detail">
If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
</p>
</section>
</main>
<script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>Local storm report, Jul 13, 9:23 PM CDT, 20 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
923 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM Rain 3 S Winger 47.50N 95.99W
07/13/2024 E5.75 Inch Polk MN Public
0912 PM Hail 1 S Cormorant 46.71N 96.06W
07/13/2024 E0.75 Inch Otter Tail MN Public
Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).
0920 PM Rain 2 NE Sabin 46.80N 96.62W
07/13/2024 M0.60 Inch Clay MN Mesonet
Sabin NDAWN.
0922 PM Rain 1 SE Glyndon 46.87N 96.57W
07/13/2024 M0.57 Inch Clay MN Mesonet
Glyndon NDAWN.
&&Local storm report, Jul 13, 9:29 PM CDT, 14 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
929 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0925 PM Hail 2 WNW Cormorant 46.74N 96.11W
07/13/2024 M1.00 Inch Becker MN Trained Spotter
&&
TTLocal storm report, Jul 13, 9:32 PM CDT, 11 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
932 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0925 PM Hail 4 ENE Pelican Rapids 46.59N 96.01W
07/13/2024 M1.00 Inch Otter Tail MN Trained Spotter
Corrects previous hail report from 2 WNW
Cormorant.
&&
TTThe office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 7:35 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Richland | 40 min |
| Jul 13, 7:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cass | 37 min |
| Jul 13, 7:18 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Norman | 27 min |
| Jul 13, 7:26 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Clay, Norman | 49 min |
| Jul 13, 7:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Clay | 65 min |
| Jul 13, 8:05 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Clay | 29 min |
| Jul 13, 8:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Mahnomen | 62 min |
| Jul 13, 8:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin | 57 min |
| Jul 13, 9:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Otter Tail | 40 min |
| Jul 13, 9:48 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Otter Tail | 27 min |
| Jul 13, 10:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Otter Tail, Wadena | 35 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2024Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.