Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
726 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing heat impacts will continue through early evening
  today. Impacts will be highest for heat sensitive or
  vulnerable groups and  anyone without effective cooling or
  hydration.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  across northwest Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. A level
  1 out of 5 risk exists in northeastern North Dakota.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 727 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Thunderstorms have formed this afternoon along a boundary that
stretches from around Halstad, MN to Bemidji, MN. Environmental
conditions continue to support the formation of severe
thunderstorms through the remainder of the evening, which could
include large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...Synopsis...

The large scale pattern will continue to feature mid/upper ridging
continuing over southwest US/Great Basin, while westerly flow in the
Northern Plains transitions to north-northwest flow behind a
mid/upper trough later Sunday night into Monday. The shift in flow
will bring much cooler (mild) temperatures back to the region, while
overall precipitation chances diminishing as drier/more stable air
moves in place. There could still be some fast moving waves in that
type of pattern but consensus shows very low potential for wetting
precipitation after Monday.

...Severe weather potential today and tonight...

Forcing mechanisms that could help initiate convection will continue
to be the biggest question which reflects the large spread in CAMs
coverage through this evening, lowering confidence in location of
impacts at any one location. Current features of interest are weak
low pressure near southeast ND, several older outflow boundaries
in MN and a well defined frontal zone (cold front)/theta-e axis to
our northwest where much more agitated CU has been in place and
farther north in Canada several supercells have developed. If
initiation takes place the environment features high CAPE, high
moisture. THere are reasonable amounts of effective and 0-3km shear
(30-35kt), and this would support severe organization and the
potential for supercells. Cold pool interactions would likely be
necessary for higher coverage/clustering and wet microbursts and
large hail may remain the primary threats though there are areas
where low level veering could support a limited tornado
threat. It is an event that could end up with isolated or very
little in the way of severe convection, or scattered/higher
impact severe impacts and ultimately we will need to monitor
trends through the evening. By later tonight an MCS may track to
our southwest, but there is much more consistency on this
remaining southwest of our CWA now (a few outliers show it near
southeast ND during the 3-6am period but these were older runs.

...Severe weather potential Sunday afternoon into Monday morning...

Unlike today, we actually have a period of organized forcing to
track as a mid/upper low and stronger cold front drop south into the
region out of Canada Sunday evening into Monday morning, with much
higher shear but not as extreme instability. The combination should
support the potential for supercells or clusters/MCS development.
As drier/more stable air quickly filters into the region behind the
front the severe threat may actually diminish based on latest
guidance as the frontal zone scours out our CWA. There could still
be a window for ongoing severe weather during the Monday morning
hours if the cold front is a bit slower in our east-southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 551 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

As a shortwave trough moves through the FGF CWA, thunderstorm
development is expected, especially along the cold front the MN/ND
border, potentially impacting FAR and BJI TAF sites between 1Z-4Z.
Uncertainty in exact coverage and location remains. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals, but brief
MVFR and IFR conditions are possible as a result of these
thunderstorms. After this storm system moves through, winds are
expected to be light and variable through the rest of the TAF
period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ030-038-039-
     049-052-053.
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-003-029-
     030-040.

&&

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
750 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032-NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>029-054-141300-
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-
East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-
North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
West Becker-East Becker-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Western Walsh-
750 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms today
into tonight. The main hazards will be hail to 2 inches, 70 mph
wind gusts.  Tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Sunday...Level 2 out of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk for strong
winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

MNZ002-003-029-030-040-NDZ030-038-039-049-052-053-141300-
Norman-Clay-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-Grant-Traill-Barnes-Cass-
Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
750 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A heat advisory is also in effect for this afternoon with heat
indicies expected to crest 100 degrees.

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms today
into tonight. The main hazards will be hail to 2 inches, 70 mph
wind gusts. Tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Sunday...Level 2 out of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk for strong
winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

MNZ002-015-022-023-140045-
Mahnomen MN-South Clearwater MN-Norman MN-East Polk MN-
659 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NORMAN...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK...NORTHERN MAHNOMEN AND CENTRAL CLEARWATER COUNTIES
THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northwestern White Earth Nation, or 44 miles south of Thief River
Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fosston, Mahnomen, Island Lake in Mahnomen County, Winger, Bejou,
Lengby, and Beaulieu.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4729 9590 4749 9635 4761 9582 4754 9555
      4750 9555 4750 9535 4747 9525
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 292DEG 25KT 4749 9591

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Thomas/TL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
721 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Tornado          9 WSW Colfax            46.42N 97.05W
07/13/2024                   Richland           ND   Trained Spotter

            Tornado on the ground doing active damage 9
            WSW Colfax. Trees down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
739 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     Tornado          Barney                  46.27N 97.00W
07/13/2024                   Richland           ND   Trained Spotter

            Tornado continues to do damage around Barney
            ND.

&&

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