Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There continues to be a slight (2 out of 5) risk for severe
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Hail up to golf
  balls, wind gusts of 60 mph, and a few tornadoes possible.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected late Monday
  night into Tuesday. Severe storms are unlikely, but some
  impacts from heavy rain as there is a 50 percent probability
  of an inch or more.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Two main thunderstorm areas of note across the CWA this evening
with the one across the north moving into a worse environment
decreasing instability and bulk deep layer shear. Seeing a small
MCV with it though, so expect some chance for severe
trends could linger for a bit. Stronger storms further south
along the cold front in better environment with stronger
instability and moving into increased deep layer shear around
30-40kts. Strong low level moisture transport into the area with
PWATs around 1.3, and storms training along the boundary.
Currently LL shear more parallel to the storm motion and
boundary, with storm propagation more to the east southeast.
Therefore expect the main threat area for severe weather in the
next 1-2 hours along and south of I-94 across southeastern ND.
Severe threats continue to be large hail and gusty winds,
isolated tornadoes possible as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...Synopsis...

Southwesterly flow aloft with several embedded vorts continues
across the Northern Plains. The main shortwave tonight will push
off into Minnesota and Ontario, pushing the surface trough
currently over the central Dakotas into the Upper Midwest by
Monday morning. This will be quickly followed by the next
shortwave, which will dig into eastern MT Monday night and into
the Northern Plains by Tuesday. Northwesterly flow aloft sets up
to mid to late week and into next weekend.

...Slight risk this afternoon/evening...

Much of the morning and early afternoon has been a lot of non-
severe convection for our forecast area, but starting to get
some stronger cells in the far western counties and there has
been some SPSs and one severe so far. In the last few hours
there has been some more discrete cells developing in south
central ND where there has been some clear skies and ML CAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg. Effective shear is around 30-40 kts, and while
0-1km SRH is not impressive, there has been one rotating storm
just to our west in Stutsman county. CAMs continue to show the
discrete cells moving into southeastern ND in the next few hours
and then merging into a more linear form later this evening.
While there still an isolated tornado threat, mainly in
southeastern ND, the main issue for us will be hail up to
golf balls and then transitioning to winds over 60 mph later
tonight. The storms will push into the MN side, exiting out of
our eastern CWA border sometime around midnight.

...Rain Monday night into Tuesday...

The upper low for the beginning of next week will be fairly
vigorous and our CWA will again be in the warm sector as the
system tracks from the Northern Rockies eastward into Manitoba
and ND. The surface trough axis will push eastward into the Red
River Valley during the overnight hours Monday night. Due to the
timing of the system, the bulk of the forcing will be coming
through during the time of day when we will not be getting good
heating. CAPE values from the ensembles are pretty low, and HREF
has a few paintball UH tracks but not a huge amount. Think
probabilities of severe are pretty low, but we could see some
decent rainfall Monday night into Tuesday as the trough axis
swings through. Probabilities from the NBM are around 50 percent
for over an inch of rain, mainly for northeastern ND but are 10
to 30 percent for other portions of the CWA. With the recent wet
pattern, the rain will have to be watched for impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Showers and some storms to impact most sites this evening. KDVL
likely done with majority of the shra/ts activity for the
forecast period. Majority of thunder threat to shift to the
southern and eastern sites as of latest radar trends and best
instability further south, however cannot be ruled out at KGFK
and TVF isolated embedded in the shower activity through 03-04Z.

Frontal boundary to move through late and shift winds around to
the west to northwest with development of low clouds across the
area. CIGS could drop to IFR into Monday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

MESOSCALE...MJB
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...MJB/JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
335 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-030845-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
335 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be hail up to golf
ball size, wind gusts up to 60 mph, and a few tornadoes possible.

General storm motion... Moving toward the east at 30 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday night into Tuesday.
The main hazard will be lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
304 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

NDZ007-015-022045-
Ramsey ND-Cavalier ND-
304 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CAVALIER AND NORTH CENTRAL RAMSEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 304 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Hannah to near Wales to
Starkweather. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Langdon, Munich, Osnabrock, Milton, Nekoma, Hampden, and Clyde.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 9795 4872 9795 4872 9793 4865 9793
      4844 9897 4878 9896 4893 9900 4900 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 232DEG 33KT 4908 9877 4886 9872 4848 9888

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Spender

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
423 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

NDZ014-015-024-022200-
Eddy ND-Benson ND-Ramsey ND-
423 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BENSON...
SOUTHWESTERN RAMSEY AND EDDY COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 423 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Minnewaukan to near Sykeston. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Devils Lake, New Rockford, Camp Grafton, Lakewood Park, Fort Totten,
Minnewaukan, and Sheyenne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern North Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4812 9942 4827 9877 4759 9873 4759 9926
      4767 9927 4768 9930 4785 9930 4785 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 250DEG 32KT 4807 9933 4751 9932

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Spender

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
534 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 N Webster             48.31N 98.88W
06/02/2024  M63 MPH          Ramsey             ND   Mesonet

            Webster NDAWN gusts to 63 MPH at 10m.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
705 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

NDZ016-030030-
Eastern Walsh County ND-
705 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN WALSH COUNTY THROUGH 730
PM CDT...

At 704 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mandt, or 9 miles west of Grafton, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Grafton, Minto, Hoople, Pisek, Warsaw, Oakwood, and Veseleyville.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 163 and 184.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4854 9715 4848 9715 4848 9716 4847 9715
      4842 9716 4840 9715 4839 9716 4838 9715
      4837 9716 4822 9715 4827 9773 4853 9767
      4855 9757
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 264DEG 47KT 4840 9761

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lynch

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
833 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     Tornado          Fort Ransom             46.52N 97.93W
06/02/2024                   Ransom             ND   Trained Spotter

            A trained storm spotter (DouglasB27)
            reported a tornado moving southeast near
            highway 32 and hasd been on the ground 5
            minutes prior to call.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
843 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MNZ003-NDZ039-030215-
Clay MN-Cass ND-
843 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN CASS
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 843 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Georgetown to Durbin to near Sheldon. Movement
was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fargo, Moorhead, West Fargo, Dilworth, Horace, Glyndon, and Mapleton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 49 and 79.
 Interstate 94 in North Dakota between mile markers 334 and 352.
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 1 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 9767 4683 9722 4715 9683 4715 9619
      4711 9619 4679 9643 4663 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 276DEG 19KT 4705 9680 4682 9712 4664 9751

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lynch