Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
117 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024

At a glance:

 - Stubborn CAD wedge will keep cool, drizzly, foggy conditions
   in place across north Georgia into tonight.

 - The risk for severe thunderstorms will increase from west to
   east beginning during the predawn hours Sunday and pushing east
   of the area Sunday afternoon. The primary concern will be
   damaging wind gusts as well as a few brief tornadoes.

The primary focus through the short term will be the increasing
severe thunderstorm risk Sunday morning. This afternoon, however,
brings no severe concerns amid a stubborn CAD wedge remaining
entrenched across north Georgia. Low clouds, drizzle, and patchy
fog will remain the rule through the remainder of the day today
across much of the area. Temperatures have remained nearly steady
within this wedge regime and only very slightly warmed through the
day, and upper 40s to low 50s are still in place for areas
roughly near and north of the I-20 corridor. Warmer conditions
remain relegated to far southern counties outside of the current
CAD influence.

The CAD wedge will likely not hold firm, however. As mentioned in
the previous morning forecast discussion, a stout 40-50+ kt LLJ
will spread eastward in advance of an approaching strong cold
front through the early morning hours Sunday. Efficient mixing
associated with this strong LLJ is expected to be sufficient to
erode most of the lingering shallow wedge remains during the early
morning hours. As such, temperatures will actually be creeping up
through the overnight hours through early Sunday morning across
most of north Georgia, though some small vestige of the wedge
could remain entrenched in portions of NE GA. Overall, though, a
more supportive environment for severe thunderstorms is expected
to spread eastward.

An ongoing QLCS is expected to approach and enter northwest and
west Georgia during the predawn hours Sunday (likely 3-6 AM) and
quickly sweep eastward through Sunday morning. SBCAPE is forecast
to remain relatively limited through the morning hours in advance
of this linear system, likely on the order of 100-500 J/kg.
However, amid plenty of shear (150-250+ m2/s2 of 0-1km helicity),
a high shear/low CAPE environment would certainly support a
damaging wind threat as well as a brief tornado threat.
Additionally, guidance does indicate a window from midday into the
early afternoon hours where more substantial destabilization
could occur in far east/southeast counties (SBCAPE as high as
1000-1200 J/kg). This could support a slightly greater threat in
these areas, though forcing will begin to weaken as the shortwave
rapidly lifts away from the area. With all this said, a "Slight"
(Level 2/5) Risk remains in place across the entirety of the area
from early Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.

The severe risk will quickly end by mid-afternoon as the surface
front pushes eastward. Total QPF remains largely in the 1-1.5"
rain with locally higher totals over 2", which should limit any
widespread hydrological concerns.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024

The long term period picks up on Monday. The mid-/upper-level
wave that will bring the severe weather potential tonight into
Sunday will have shifted well north and east of the forecast area
on Monday. The flow aloft will briefly be characterized by
shortwave ridging on Monday, before a shortwave trough shoots
east-southeastward across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valley Monday
night into Tuesday. There will be minimal moisture for this
feature to work with, so have maintained slight chance to chance
PoPs generally along and north of I-20 on Tuesday. Rainfall totals
from the glancing blow of this feature should come out to around
meager 0.10" or less. Breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday
(New Year's Eve) as the surface low associated with the shortwave
trough skirts past. Sustained winds are forecast to be 10-15 mph
with gusts of 20-25 mph. Conditions are shaping up to be a bit
breezy on Wednesday (New Year's Day) as well.

In the wake of the aforementioned quick-hitting Clipper-like
system, west/northwest flow will set up in the mid-/upper-levels
and dry, cool continental high pressure will build in through the
remainder of the long term period. The initial cold front passage
associated said feature will occur Tuesday evening through
Wednesday, with 700-850 mb CAA persisting through Friday given
this synoptic setup. The result will be high temperatures
generally in the 40s and 50s with low temperatures generally in
the 20s and 30s (right at or slightly below average) for the
latter half of the work week.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

Obs still show the wedge in place for all but the southern two TAF
sites with CIGS at or below 200-300ft. These CIGS should hang on
for the next hour or two before the line of thunderstorms
approaches from the west. Should also see continued VSBYs at a
mile of less during this time frame. Should see the line of
thunderstorms begin to affect the metro as early as 08-09z and
last through 13-14z. Should see low clouds begin to improve into
the afternoon tomorrow and scatter out by the evening.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium to high confidence on timing of thunderstorms.
Medium confidence on timing of CIGS improvement.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          46  63  46  65 /  10   0  10  30
Atlanta         46  64  50  64 /  10   0  10  20
Blairsville     41  61  42  56 /  20   0  30  60
Cartersville    45  64  49  63 /  10   0  20  30
Columbus        46  68  50  69 /  10   0   0  10
Gainesville     46  62  46  62 /  10   0  20  40
Macon           45  67  47  70 /  10   0   0  10
Rome            45  63  47  61 /  10   0  30  30
Peachtree City  44  66  48  66 /  10   0  10  10
Vidalia         49  71  50  75 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Hernandez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1005 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-300315-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1005 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move into
northern and western Georgia overnight. Damaging wind gusts and a
few tornadoes are concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

The line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue
across south and central Georgia through Sunday afternoon.
Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main hazard
although heavy rain could cause isolated flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
206 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

GAZ001-002-011-290730-
Chattooga GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
206 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Walker,
Dade and northwestern Chattooga Counties through 230 AM EST...

At 206 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Bass to Dutton to Rodentown, and moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, Menlo, Stephensville, Rising Fawn, Cloudland, New England,
Morganville, Cloudland Canyon State Park, and Cole City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8545 3469 8544 3435 8547 3477 8557
      3498 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 257DEG 31KT 3494 8589 3461 8591 3421 8600

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

GAZ001>003-011-019-290815-
Chattooga GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-Floyd GA-
232 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Catoosa,
southwestern Floyd, Walker, Dade and Chattooga Counties through 315
AM EST...

At 232 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Cole City to near Henagar to near Cherokee Rock
Village, and moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Summerville, Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Rossville,
Chickamauga, Trion, Lookout Mountain, Chattanooga Valley, La Fayette,
Lyerly, Menlo, Center Post, Blue Spring, Fairview, Linwood,
Cloudland, Chattanooga  Valley, Hooker, and Cloudland Canyon State
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EST for northwestern
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8516 3464 8522 3408 8542 3498 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 269DEG 26KT 3498 8561 3464 8567 3421 8582

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

GAZ042-052-053-290830-
Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-
305 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Carroll,
Heard and northwestern Coweta Counties through 330 AM EST...

At 304 AM EST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Big Springs, or 8 miles east of Wedowee,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and increased chance of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...While winds should result in minor damage to tree limbs and
         blowing around of light, unsecured objects, this storm has
         also exhibited localized rotation. A brief tornado could
         quickly form.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Franklin, Whitesburg, Ephesus, Centralhatchee, Roopville,
Plant Yates, Byers Crossroads, Arnco-Sargent, Tyus, Powers
Crossroads, Roosterville, Seaton Lake, Handy, Waresville, Clem,
Frolona, Lowell, Texas, and Plant Wansley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EST for northwestern
and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 8503 3353 8486 3334 8485 3321 8525
      3345 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 239DEG 51KT 3329 8534

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH