Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Mid level water vapor imagery shows quite the swirl moving into the
NE CONUS as the low begins to merge with the upper level jet. Ridge
continues to build to the west of the area and a few disturbances
have been moving along the edge of it and between the upper low
across the northeast. For us, relatively moist airmass remains in
place, and with a favorable upper level environment and just a touch
of day time heating after the cloud cover broke, convection has
broken out nearly area wide. This should continue until a bit past
sunset this evening.

MLCAPE values have risen to 2000+ J/kg across much of the area, with
the exception of north GA which has had ongoing convection most of
the morning/early afternoon. Effective bulk shear remains low enough
to keep storms from getting too organized though a few severe storms
will be possible, especially with any storms that can develop some
cold pool dynamics. FFG is pretty low in many places, so it won't
take much to get some flash flooding - however, the northwest flow
overhead is our friend in some ways, as is keeping storms from
training over the same areas. Some isolated flash flooding will be
possible, especially in areas with traditionally poor drainage or
urban corridors.

Tonight into tomorrow, the forecast gets a bit more challenging.
Northwest flow remains in place. Convective guidance is picking up
on disturbance firing convection in the Ohio River Valley this
evening and pushing it southward. This line looks as though it will
push into the state during the early morning hours - the question
will be if it is still together and just how far south it will make
it. Traditionally the guidance can break these lines apart a bit too
fast, but also they can struggle a bit with the overall placement.
So, the current forecast shows PoPs during the morning hours across
a wide area, but this is more for uncertainty in timing and position
(or existence) of this line as it pushes into the CWA. How this
plays out will have big implications on how the rest of the day may
play out - potential exists for another line or more afternoon
diurnal convection, all dependent upon what happens in the morning.
Instability values will be quite high if the sun can get out and
cook things a bit, and enough shear will be present, so will need to
be on the lookout for some severe wind potential with this.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

By Wednesday morning, the sfc high and upper level ridging have
progressed eastward taking away much of the NW flow. Moisture
through the mid and end of the week will likely be dependent on any
MCS development which occurs over the next couple days. Dry air
behind any system that can get going could be dragged down into the
area, however PWATs will still likely remain above 1.5" for much of
North and Central GA. PWAT values of near 2.0" remain most likely at
this time. When combined with diurnal heating, the pattern will
return to our regularly scheduled scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
PoPs will remain below 50% through early next week, however locally
heavy rainfall may continue to be an issue on top of already
saturated soils.

The main thing to watch for in the long term outlook will be the
heat risk. Highs by Thursday will be in the mid 90s to near 100 for
much of the area. Dewpoints well into the 70s will see heat indices
of 104+ with some areas potentially reaching near 110.

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Most sites are bouncing between MVFR and VFR conditions this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous SHRA with occasional TSRA
impacting all TAF sites. This will continue until a bit after
sunset. Low cigs possible tomorrow morning again as moist air
remains in place. Not as confident this morning as rainfall may
not be as prolific as yesterday, but concerned we may be wet
enough for IFR/MVFR cigs and maybe some vsby issues. Line of
storms currently forecast north of metro TAF sites by morning
hours to be falling apart, but may hold together long enough to
impact metro. Winds through period are W at 4-8 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence morning cigs and convective timing tomorrow.
High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  94  72  97 /  30  40  30  30
Atlanta         72  93  73  95 /  30  50  40  30
Blairsville     67  87  69  90 /  30  70  50  50
Cartersville    72  93  73  96 /  30  50  40  30
Columbus        74  95  75  96 /  30  60  40  40
Gainesville     72  92  73  94 /  30  40  40  30
Macon           72  95  72  96 /  40  50  40  30
Rome            72  92  74  96 /  40  60  40  30
Peachtree City  72  94  73  95 /  30  50  40  30
Vidalia         72  93  74  96 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-301900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
252 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon
and evening. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds may
occur, in addition to frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
Localized flash flooding will be possible across much of north
Georgia and portions of central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, can
be expected each day through Sunday. A few storms each day could
become strong to severe, capable of producing frequent lightning,
gusty to damaging winds, and heavy rainfall with localized flash
flooding.

Heat index values are forecasted to be 100 to 110 degrees across
much of north and central Georgia, with the exception of the
mountains, Tuesday through Sunday. Heat index values on the upper
end of that range are generally expected across east-central
Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
644 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAZ086-097-098-111>113-292315-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-
644 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Laurens,
Toombs, Emanuel, Treutlen, Wheeler and Montgomery Counties through
715 PM EDT...

At 644 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Thrift to near Stillmore to near Cedar Grove, and
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Swainsboro, Lyons, Soperton, Alamo, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Twin City,
Glenwood, Uvalda, Stillmore, Oak Park, Ailey, Higgston, Garfield,
Santa Claus, Alston, Nunez, Tarrytown, Ohoopee, and New Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3242 8219
      3235 8225 3218 8219 3207 8220 3192 8265
      3200 8272 3201 8275 3215 8291 3218 8287
      3220 8289 3218 8293 3229 8305 3257 8243
      3278 8213 3266 8208 3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 306DEG 28KT 3268 8205 3242 8224 3221 8287

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
715 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAZ086-110>113-292345-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Emanuel GA-Montgomery GA-
715 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Toombs, south central
Emanuel, northeastern Telfair, Wheeler and Montgomery Counties
through 745 PM EDT...

At 714 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Cobbtown to Rock Springs to Towns, and moving
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
McRae, Lyons, Alamo, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Helena, Lumber City,
Glenwood, Uvalda, Ailey, Scotland, Higgston, Santa Claus, Alston,
Towns, Ohoopee, New Branch, Spring Hill, McNatt Falls, and South
Thompson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3210 8296 3223 8258 3237 8224 3235 8225
      3217 8218 3193 8222 3195 8231 3194 8231
      3194 8238 3196 8238 3195 8240 3197 8248
      3196 8250 3195 8248 3195 8249 3196 8253
      3196 8257 3193 8259 3192 8268 3190 8269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 304DEG 30KT 3225 8216 3207 8240 3200 8278

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
730 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAZ020-030>032-041>043-300015-
Polk GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Haralson GA-Bartow GA-Carroll GA-
Paulding GA-
730 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Paulding, Haralson,
central Carroll, northwestern Cobb, northwestern Douglas, eastern
Polk and southwestern Bartow Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 730 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Kingston to Braswell to near Buchanan, and moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Douglasville, Carrollton, Cartersville, Dallas, Buchanan, Villa Rica,
Bremen, Temple, Rockmart, Euharlee, Hiram, Mount Zion, Aragon, Waco,
Braswell, Taylorsville, Yorkville, Burnt Hickory Ridge, Brownsville,
and Cross Roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3404 8469 3375 8475 3352 8514 3387 8533
      3406 8502 3423 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 325DEG 21KT 3419 8491 3398 8495 3379 8524

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
730 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAZ110-292345-
Telfair GA-
730 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Telfair
County through 745 PM EDT...

At 730 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Lumber City to Red Bluff, and moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville and Horse Creek Wma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 8308 3201 8284 3191 8269 3188 8274
      3186 8276 3186 8278 3185 8279 3184 8278
      3181 8282 3182 8284 3178 8287 3178 8289
      3179 8290 3178 8292 3178 8296 3179 8298
      3178 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 315DEG 24KT 3190 8272 3175 8299

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
732 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAZ068>072-081-082-300015-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-Pike GA-
732 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Bibb,
central Pike, Monroe, Upson, northern Crawford, southwestern Jones
and southern Lamar Counties through 815 PM EDT...

At 732 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Collier to near Redbone to Piedmont to Hilltop,
and moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Thomaston, Barnesville, Forsyth, Zebulon, Roberta, Yatesville,
Payne, Meansville, Culloden, Aldora, Lincoln Park, The Rock, Payne
City, Sunset Village, Concord, Lake Tobesofkee, Atwater, Hilltop, and
Russellville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 8450 3307 8430 3306 8415 3318 8400
      3291 8362 3273 8380 3269 8390 3281 8434
      3313 8451 3315 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 318DEG 25KT 3309 8402 3302 8411 3303 8426 3311
8443

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
738 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

GAZ091-092-103-104-300015-
Schley GA-Sumter GA-Marion GA-Webster GA-
738 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Marion,
Webster, southwestern Schley and west central Sumter Counties through
815 PM EDT...

At 738 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Church Hill, or near
Preston, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Preston, Plains, Seminole, Friendship, Church Hill, Centerpoint,
Dumas, and Draneville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3210 8464 3215 8464 3215 8465 3216 8465
      3216 8464 3217 8464 3225 8442 3202 8424
      3197 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 333DEG 13KT 3216 8453

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH