River Flood Warning 70, NWS Atlanta, GA

299 
WGUS82 KFFC 251450
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
950 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Forsyth and Fulton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 1000 PM EST.

&&

GAC117-121-260300-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240128T2230Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240127T0000Z.240128T1630Z.NO/
950 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding will continue.

* WHERE...Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* WHEN...Until Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 10 feet, Minor flooding expands along the creek from 
  near Cumming to Alpharetta and Roswell. Backyards of homes off 
  Seale Drive and Gunter Court and portions of the Golf of Georgia 
  are under a foot of water. The Big Creek Greenway experiences 
  significant flooding up to 4 feet deep with closure of the paths. 
  This especially occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on 
  Kimball Bridge Road and Rock Mill Park. A large portion of the 
  YMCA Campground off Preston Ridge Road will be under a two feet of 
  water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM EST Thursday the stage was 7.9 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 9.8
    feet tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    late Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 7 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

577 
WGUS82 KFFC 251851
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Big Creek at GA 9 near Cumming affecting Forsyth County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Forsyth and Fulton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 200 AM EST.

&&

GAC117-260700-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-240126T1446Z/
/CMGG1.1.ER.240125T0757Z.240125T2000Z.240126T0846Z.UU/
151 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding will continue.

* WHERE...Big Creek at GA 9 near Cumming.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 7 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand into the 
  natural flood plain of the creek upstream and downstream from the 
  gage at Atlanta Highway or Georgia Highway 9. Large portions of 
  the sidewalk and boardwalk of the Big Creek Greenway will be 
  flooded. The areas under the Georgia 400 Highway and McFarland 
  Road will be covered with around two feet of water. A portion of 
  the sidewalk under Majors Road will be covered with around 3 feet 
  of water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:45 PM EST Thursday the stage was 7.1 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 7.2
    feet late this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 6 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3418 8424 3417 8420 3411 8419 3410 8420
      3410 8425 3411 8424


$$

GAC117-121-260700-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240128T2230Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240127T0000Z.240128T1630Z.NO/
151 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding will continue.

* WHERE...Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* WHEN...Until Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 10 feet, Minor flooding expands along the creek from 
  near Cumming to Alpharetta and Roswell. Backyards of homes off 
  Seale Drive and Gunter Court and portions of the Golf of Georgia 
  are under a foot of water. The Big Creek Greenway experiences 
  significant flooding up to 4 feet deep with closure of the paths. 
  This especially occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on 
  Kimball Bridge Road and Rock Mill Park. A large portion of the 
  YMCA Campground off Preston Ridge Road will be under a two feet of 
  water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:30 PM EST Thursday the stage was 8.6 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 9.8
    feet tomorrow evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    late Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 7 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

302 
WGUS82 KFFC 260028
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
728 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Forsyth and Fulton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued Friday morning at 730 AM EST.

&&

GAC117-121-261230-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240129T1900Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240126T1800Z.240129T1300Z.NO/
728 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast 
  to continue.

* WHERE...Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* WHEN...Until early Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 10 feet, Minor flooding expands along the creek from 
  near Cumming to Alpharetta and Roswell. Backyards of homes off 
  Seale Drive and Gunter Court and portions of the Golf of Georgia 
  are under a foot of water. The Big Creek Greenway experiences 
  significant flooding up to 4 feet deep with closure of the paths. 
  This especially occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on 
  Kimball Bridge Road and Rock Mill Park. A large portion of the 
  YMCA Campground off Preston Ridge Road will be under a two feet of 
  water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:15 PM EST Thursday the stage was 8.9 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 9.7
    feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood
    stage Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 7 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

912 
WGUS82 KFFC 260305
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1005 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Forsyth and Fulton Counties.

For the Big Creek...including Alpharetta...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued Friday morning at 1015 AM EST.

&&

GAC117-121-261515-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240130T0900Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240126T1800Z.240130T0300Z.NO/
1005 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast 
  to continue.

* WHERE...Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* WHEN...Until early Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10 feet, Minor flooding expands along the creek from 
  near Cumming to Alpharetta and Roswell. Backyards of homes off 
  Seale Drive and Gunter Court and portions of the Golf of Georgia 
  are under a foot of water. The Big Creek Greenway experiences 
  significant flooding up to 4 feet deep with closure of the paths. 
  This especially occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on 
  Kimball Bridge Road and Rock Mill Park. A large portion of the 
  YMCA Campground off Preston Ridge Road will be under a two feet of 
  water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 PM EST Thursday the stage was 9.1 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 9.7 feet tomorrow evening.
    It will then fall Saturday evening. It will rise to 9 feet
    early Monday morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    late Monday evening.
  - Flood stage is 7 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

340 
WGUS82 KFFC 260754
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Forsyth and Fulton Counties.

For the Big Creek...including Cumming, Alpharetta, Roswell...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 300 PM EST.

&&

GAC117-121-262000-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240130T0900Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240126T1800Z.240130T0300Z.NO/
254 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding will continue.

* WHERE...Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* WHEN...Until early Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10 feet, Minor flooding expands along the creek from 
  near Cumming to Alpharetta and Roswell. Backyards of homes off 
  Seale Drive and Gunter Court and portions of the Golf of Georgia 
  are under a foot of water. The Big Creek Greenway experiences 
  significant flooding up to 4 feet deep with closure of the paths. 
  This especially occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on 
  Kimball Bridge Road and Rock Mill Park. A large portion of the 
  YMCA Campground off Preston Ridge Road will be under a two feet of 
  water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 AM EST Friday the stage was 9.1 feet and nearly
    steady.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 9.7 feet this evening. It
    will then fall tomorrow evening. It will rise to 9.0 feet
    early Monday morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    late Monday evening.
  - Flood stage is 7 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

756 
WGUS82 KFFC 261511
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1011 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Forsyth and Fulton Counties.

For the Big Creek...including Cumming, Alpharetta, Roswell...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 1015 PM EST.

&&

GAC117-121-270315-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240130T0100Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240126T0815Z.240129T1900Z.NO/
1011 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* WHEN...Until Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 9 feet, Minor flooding expands along the creek from 
  near Cumming to Alpharetta and Roswell. Backyards of homes off 
  Seale Drive and Gunter Court and portions of the Golf of Georgia 
  begin to flood. The Big Creek Greenway experiences significant 
  flooding up to 3 feet deep...which results in closure of most of 
  the paths. This especially occurs upstream and downstream from the 
  gage on Kimball Bridge Road and Rock Mill Park. A large portion of 
  the YMCA Campground off Preston Ridge Road will be under a foot of 
  water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM EST Friday the stage was 9 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river is expected fall below flood stage early
    Monday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 7 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

816 
WGUS82 KFFC 270152
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
852 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Forsyth and Fulton Counties.

For the Big Creek...including Cumming, Alpharetta, Roswell...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued Saturday morning at 900 AM EST.

&&

GAC117-121-271400-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240129T1800Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240126T0815Z.240129T1200Z.NO/
852 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* WHEN...Until early Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand further 
  into the woodlands and fields along the creek from near Cumming in 
  south Forsyth County to Alpharetta and Roswell in north Fulton 
  County. Additional portions of The Big Creek Greenway have minor 
  flooding with 1 to 2 feet of water. Most of the walking and biking 
  paths will be closed...especially upstream and downstream from the 
  gage on Kimball Bridge Road and near Rock Mill Park. Portions of 
  the YMCA Campground off Preston Ridge Road will flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 PM EST Friday the stage was 7.9 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:45 PM EST Friday was 9.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will fall below flood stage late
    tomorrow morning to 6.5 feet early Sunday morning. It will
    then rise above flood stage Sunday afternoon to 7.2 feet
    early Monday morning. It will fall below flood stage again
    Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    7.9 feet on 11/13/2020.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

518 
WGUS82 KFFC 270533
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1233 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Forsyth and Fulton Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 1245 PM EST.

&&

GAC117-121-271745-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240129T1800Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240126T0815Z.240129T1200Z.NO/
1233 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* WHEN...Until early Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 6 feet, Bankfull conditions are reached along the 
  creek between Cumming in Forsyth County, to Alpharetta and Roswell 
  in North Fulton County. Some low lying spots along The Big Creek 
  Greenway will begin to flood with a few inches of water upstream 
  and downstream from the gage on Kimball Bridge Road. Water will 
  begin to enter low portions of the YMCA Campground off Preston 
  Ridge Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:15 AM EST Saturday the stage was 6.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will continue falling to 6.5 feet late
    Saturday night. It will rise above flood stage again Sunday
    evening to 7.1 feet early Monday morning. It will then fall
    below flood stage again later Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 7 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

344 
WGUS82 KFFC 271125
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
625 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Fulton and Forsyth Counties.

For the Big Creek...including Cumming, Alpharetta, Roswell...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 330 PM EST.

&&

GAC117-121-272030-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240129T1800Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240126T0815Z.240129T1200Z.NO/
625 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* WHEN...Until early Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 7 feet, Flood Stage is reached.  Minor flooding of 
  woodlands and fields begin along the creek between Cumming in 
  Forsyth County...to Alpharetta and Roswell in North Fulton 
  County.  Flooding starts to effect portions of The Big Creek 
  Greenway near Alpharetta and some portions may become closed with 
  around one foot of water...especially upstream and downstream from 
  the gage on Kimball Bridge Road and near Rock Mill Park. Portions 
  of the YMCA Campground off Preston Ridge Road will begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:15 AM EST Saturday the stage was 5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 7 feet
    early Monday morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 7 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

868 
WGUS82 KFFC 272000
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Fulton and Forsyth Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 300 AM EST.

&&

GAC117-121-280800-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240129T1800Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240126T0815Z.240127T0454Z.NO/
300 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* WHEN...Until early Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 4.3 feet, bankfull conditions continue along the 
  creek between Cumming in Forsyth County...to Alpharetta and 
  Roswell in North Fulton County. Some low lying spots along The Big 
  Creek Greenway will begin to flood with a few inches of water 
  upstream and downstream from the gage on Kimball Bridge Road. 
  Water will begin to enter low portions of the YMCA Campground off 
  Preston Ridge Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:45 PM EST Saturday the stage was 4.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 6.9
    feet early tomorrow afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    7.0 feet on 11/30/2022.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

515 
WGUS82 KFFC 280233
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
933 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Fulton and Forsyth Counties.

GAC117-121-280345-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0070.000000T0000Z-240128T0233Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.240125T0848Z.240126T0815Z.240127T0454Z.NO/
933 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Big Creek near Alpharetta.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 PM EST Saturday the stage was 5.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 5.7
    feet tomorrow morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1242 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2024

With surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, a
wedge remains in place along the lee side of the Appalachians and
into northeast Georgia. As a longwave trough extends southward
through the western CONUS, Georgia remains positioned underneath
southwesterly flow at the mid and upper levels. Deep moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico will continue to overrun the cooler dome of
air within the wedge in place across the northern portions of the
state. As a result, low cloud ceilings, drizzle, and patchy fog
have been ongoing across north Georgia throughout the day. While
some erosion of the wedge has been observed on the south and west
side at the time of this writing, it has been slow to erode in
northeast Georgia. Have favored hi-res guidance that keeps the
wedge in place into early tonight. As a result, high temperatures
are forecast to remain in the mid 50s to low 60s generally east of
I-75 and north of I-20. Highs in central Georgia will be much
warmer, in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

As a shortwave traverses the southwesterly flow aloft, a surface
low pressure is moving through the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
This low will continue to move northeastward and towards the
Great Lakes overnight. Forcing ahead of this low will allow more
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to spread from west
to east across the area from early this evening into the overnight
hours. Boundary layer winds are anticipated to increase to 15-20
kts later tonight, which should begin to scour out the wedge.
Dewpoints are currently in the 50s in north Georgia within the
wedge and low to mid 60s in central Georgia. As the wedge
retreats, these dewpoints in the 60s will overspread the forecast
area by Thursday morning. Precipitable water values will also
increase to between 1.5 to 1.7 inches, which will near daily high
values per sounding climatology.

On Thursday, the aforementioned longwave trough swings into the
ArkLaTex and becomes negatively tilted. At this point, another
surface low is expected to develop in the Mississippi River
Valley. This low will deepen as it moves north-northeastward
towards the Great Lakes. A cold front extending southward from
this low will advance slowly eastward towards Georgia over the
course of the day on Thursday, which will give us our second round
of potentially heavy rainfall, especially considering the
available moisture. Rainfall totals through Thursday are forecast
to range from 1-2 inches at this time, but any thunderstorms that
develop could lead to locally higher amounts, which could lead to
excessive runoff and flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and
other low-lying and flood-prone locations. The Flood Watch
remains in effect for portions of north and west Georgia from 7 PM
this evening until 7 PM Friday evening.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM Friday due to rounds of
  moderate to heavy rainfall

- Slight chance to chance (15% to 50%) for thunderstorms Friday
  and Saturday with a 15% chance for severe storms on Saturday

- Dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday

The pattern discussed in the short term discussion will carry
over into the first part of the long term period. The
aforementioned moisture plume will remain positioned over the
Southeast amid the southwesterly flow aloft, bringing waves of
widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the area. Progged MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and mid-level lapse
rates of 7.0-7.5 C/km suggest an environment supportive of strong
storms, but cloudy conditions make for a big question mark as to
how much instability is realized and translates to the surface as
gusty/damaging winds. SPC has roughly the western half of the CWA
in a 15% chance for severe storms on Saturday (D4), which overlaps
with where SREF is progging an area of strong low/mid-level winds
(40-50 kts at 850-700 mb) and effective bulk shear (surface to
500 mb) of 40-50 kts. All that to say that this high shear, low
CAPE environment could produce a few strong to severe storms with
gusty/damaging winds.

Similar to what was discussed in the short term discussion,
hydrology concerns will be the main focus with the rainfall Friday
through Saturday. The NBM has a 25% to 55% chance for rainfall to
exceed 2 inches for the 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Sunday time frame (in
addition to the rainfall that will have occurred in the short
term period) roughly along and north of I-85. While the Flood
Watch is currently set to expire on Friday evening, river flooding
(with river ensemble guidance depicting a 30% chance for several
gages -- especially the typically "flashy" ones -- to go into
Action Stage or Minor Flood Stage) will continue to be a concern
through the weekend due to the previous several days of rainfall
and resulting excessive runoff. The upper-level trough axis is
expected to shift east of the forecast area on Sunday evening with
an upper-level ridge and high pressure replacing it. This will
usher in dry, sunny conditions for Monday and Tuesday with near-
normal temperatures.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2024

Cigs and vsbys should temporarily improve as widespread rain
moves across the northern airports. However, that area of rain
should push off to the north later this morning with cigs lowering
back down to 003-004. Some slight improvement to around 005 is
possible later this afternoon. A wave of shra, potentially with an
isolated tsra, is likely this afternoon. Have tried to time
accordingly, but left thunder out for now since chances are small
at this time. Winds will also try and go over to the SW side for a
few hours this afternoon before going back east after dark.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  70  59  67 /  70  90  70 100
Atlanta         61  69  59  67 /  80  90  70 100
Blairsville     56  65  53  62 /  80  80  60 100
Cartersville    60  68  57  67 /  80  90  70 100
Columbus        64  72  62  72 /  70  90  70  90
Gainesville     60  68  57  64 /  80  90  70 100
Macon           64  73  62  73 /  70  90  70  80
Rome            59  68  55  66 /  70  80  60 100
Peachtree City  61  71  59  69 /  80  90  70  90
Vidalia         65  76  63  77 /  50  80  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>024-030>034-041>045-052>055-066-067-078.

Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EST early this morning for GAZ024-
025-027-034>039-047-049>051.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
215 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-251915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
215 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected early this
evening across northern and western Georgia with showers becoming
widespread and heavy at times across the rest of the area
overnight. A Flood Watch goes into effect at 7 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Periods of heavy rainfall and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will continue through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches
are forecasted across much of north and central Georgia with
localized greater totals possible. This could result in flooding
of rivers, creeks, and streams, as well as other low-lying or
flood-prone areas. The Flood Watch expires at 7 PM on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.