River Flood Warning 235, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
241 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

No major changes have been made to the forecast other than tweaks to
the wind forecast based on the latest NHC Helene track.

Hurricane Helene continues to intensify over the E Gulf of Mexico,
with expected landfall around the FL Big Bend area this evening.
Helene will be moving quickly N after she makes landfall, with a
potentially large area under the threat of hurricane or tropical
storm force winds overnight tonight into Friday morning.

The Predecessor Rain Event from Wednesday saturated soils across
much of the area, so additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches
across much of the area are likely. Locally higher amounts are
possible, particularly in the more persistent, training rain bands
and over the NE terrain. WPC has much of the area under a high
excessive rainfall risk. The area-wide Flood Watch remains in effect.

The risk of tornadoes continues, mainly along and to the E of
Helene's path. We've already seen rotating cells over the SE corner
of the County Warning Area (CWA). That area is also closer to some
sizable breaks in the overcast across the JAX CWA and more unstable
air. However, even low CAPE values will support isolated tornadoes.
SPC issued a Tornado Watch earlier which remains valid until this
evening. We have opted to expand this watch a bit farther to the W.
Additional expansions are possible, followed by a possible new watch
later.

Preparations for strong winds and additional heavy rainfall should
be rushed to completion before sunset today! /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Fortunately, much quieter conditions are expected next week in the
wake of Helene. Aside from ongoing flooding concerns on rivers and
larger waterways, only minimal PoPs are included in far north
Georgia around the lingering cutoff low through the weekend.

The remainder of the long term period next week currently looks dry.
The cutoff low finally lifts northeastward and weak northwest flow
aloft builds into the region before weak ridging builds eastward by
late week. Temperatures will be largely near seasonal averages.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Not too much change to previous forecast besides bringing in
improving conditions at the end of the period as Helene continues
to lift N. Until that time, IFR to LIFR conditions will be
prevalent with the lowest vsbys in tropical rainbands. Winds will
steadily increase through the evening with maximum wind gusts
between midnight and daybreak at most locations.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium for all elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  76  62  79 / 100  40  10  10
Atlanta         66  74  63  77 / 100  40  10  10
Blairsville     62  71  58  68 / 100  90  30  50
Cartersville    64  75  63  77 / 100  70  20  20
Columbus        66  79  63  82 / 100  10   0  10
Gainesville     67  74  63  75 / 100  60  20  20
Macon           68  79  63  82 / 100  10   0   0
Rome            66  75  63  76 / 100  80  30  30
Peachtree City  64  75  61  78 / 100  30  10  10
Vidalia         72  83  65  85 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-
030>039-041>062-066>068-072>076-078-084>086-097-098-111>113.

Hurricane Warning for GAZ069>071-079>083-089>096-102>110.

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
246 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Rounds of torrential rainfall and significant flooding and flash
flooding are expected across the area through tonight. Brief
tornadoes will also be possible, especially across east central
Georgia. As Hurricane Helene moves into the state this evening,
hurricane and tropical storm force winds will spread quickly
north. All preparations for widespread high wind impacts and power
outages should be rushed to completion by this evening.

For more details, please refer to the latest Flash Flood Watch
and Hurricane Local Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Heavy rain and tropical storm conditions will improve as Helene
moves quickly north and out of the state by midday Friday.
Flooding of larger creeks and rivers will persist into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation tonight into Friday
morning. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAZ110-111-261930-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-
258 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Telfair
and south central Wheeler Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band near Snipesville, or near
Hazlehurst, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Locations impacted include...
Lumber City, Scotland, Towns, Jordan, and Spring Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3205 8287 3209 8263 3192 8264 3192 8268
      3191 8268 3190 8269 3190 8270 3186 8276
      3186 8278 3185 8279 3184 8278 3184 8279
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 165DEG 20KT 3182 8270

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
303 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAZ098-112-113-261930-
Toombs GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
303 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Toombs,
southeastern Treutlen and northeastern Montgomery Counties through
330 PM EDT...

At 302 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Higgston, or 7 miles
west of Lyons, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Locations impacted include...
Soperton, Vidalia, Higgston, Tarrytown, Zaidee, and Kibbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central,
southeastern and east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3220 8240 3218 8248 3238 8259 3243 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 164DEG 22KT 3223 8245

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
310 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAZ107>109-261945-
Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
310 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Dodge,
southeastern Pulaski and north central Wilcox Counties through 345 PM
EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band near Union, or near
Abbeville, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Locations impacted include...
Eastman, Abbeville, Union, Five Points, Gresston, Plainfield,
Godwinsville, and Ocmulgee Banks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 8333 3226 8344 3228 8335 3227 8335
      3228 8334 3233 8309 3230 8307 3202 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 158DEG 27KT 3205 8326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
311 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAZ105-107-108-261945-
Dooly GA-Wilcox GA-Pulaski GA-
311 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Pulaski, northwestern Wilcox and eastern Dooly Counties through 345
PM EDT...

At 311 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band over Tippettville, or 9
miles east of Vienna, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Locations impacted include...
Unadilla, Pinehurst, Mock Springs, Pleasant View, and Tippettville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 8380 3229 8358 3203 8357 3203 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 158DEG 27KT 3206 8363

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAZ097-109>111-261945-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Laurens GA-Dodge GA-
313 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Laurens, east central Dodge, central Telfair and northwestern Wheeler
Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band near Workmore, or 7 miles
south of McRae, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Locations impacted include...
McRae, Alamo, Helena, Scotland, Achord, Little Ocmulgee State Park,
and Workmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3225 8303 3225 8271 3189 8283 3189 8295
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 185DEG 24KT 3196 8288

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
328 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAZ086-098-112-113-262000-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
328 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Toombs,
southwestern Emanuel, eastern Treutlen and northeastern Montgomery
Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 328 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong storm within a tropical rain band near Normantown, or 8 miles
east of Soperton, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Storms embedded within a tropical rainband have exhibited
         localized rotation. A brief tornado could quickly form.

Locations impacted include...
Blackville, Norristown, Covena, Zaidee, Gillis Springs, and
Normantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central,
southeastern and east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3227 8248 3248 8264 3249 8264 3254 8243
      3230 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 160DEG 22KT 3234 8245

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH