Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Atlanta, GA

621 
WGUS72 KFFC 260552
FFSFFC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
152 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

GAC021-079-093-153-169-193-225-289-260602-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-240926T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bibb GA-Crawford GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-Jones GA-Macon GA-Peach
GA-Twiggs GA-
152 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR BIBB, SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD, 
NORTH CENTRAL DOOLY, HOUSTON, SOUTH CENTRAL JONES, PEACH, 
NORTHWESTERN TWIGGS AND NORTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT Friday for north 
and central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 8399 3291 8371 3288 8342 3242 8365
      3221 8388 3232 8406

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
752 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in a wide swath extending
from near Columbus to the higher elevations of far northeast
Georgia. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding are also
anticipated in association with these storms as they train over a
common location. The greatest potential for flash flooding will
be roughly along the Interstate 85 corridor through tonight.

In the latest update, the Tropical Storm Warning for Helene has
been expanded to as far north as the Georgia/Tennessee state line.
Furthermore, with Helene expected to be moving very quickly as it
moves inland, there will not be too much time for the storm to
weaken as it approaches the forecast area. Because of this, the
storm is still likely to contain hurricane force winds as it
enters west-central Georgia. As such, the Hurricane Warning has
been expanded to cover an area roughly along and south of a line
from Columbus to Macon.

King

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Highlights:

-Periods of heavy rainfall and potential for flooding through the
remainder of today in association with a frontal system

-Growing concern for intense widespread heavy rainfall leading to
flash flooding, and increasing threat for tropical storm force winds
on Thursday as a result of Tropical Storm Helene

-A Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday. Tropical headlines
remain and/or now in effect for much of Central Georgia through
Friday.

Showers and storms are ramping up across the state this afternoon
with latest radar showing the axis of heaviest rainfall currently
situated along the I-85 corridor. This activity is slow moving and
thus flooding potential is increased. Additionally, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms have been noted with an isolated tornado threat
through the evening. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of
5) this afternoon. A High Risk (Level 4 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall exists for much of Northeast GA today. The presence of
clouds and rain has kept temperatures lower compared to the past few
days with current readings largely in the 70s (80s in the southeast
where there are less clouds and slightly lower PoPs).

The main features in play over the next few days will be 500mb low
and associated trough currently situated across the Mid-MS Valley
Region and the low associated with Hurricane Helene now to the
northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. At the sfc, a frontal boundary
will continue to sag into the forecast area and Hurricane Helene is
expected to quickly track northward and is forecast to make landfall
as a major hurricane on Thursday evening. This is quite a unique set
up as the tropical system will interact and become enveloped within
the upper level system thats to our northwest.

As plentiful tropical moisture continues to overspread into the
region increasing clouds and rain/thunder chances will continue
through the remainder of the day. Aligning with a sfc convergence
zone oriented SW to NE in north-central GA, looks like the axis of
heaviest rainfall through today will be along and in the vicinity of
the I-85 corridor. Forecast rainfall totals for today are currently
1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. Additionally, isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility
through the evening. What is occurring today is a predecessor rain
event prior to the tropical event that will continue to unfold on
Thursday.

A note prior to any details concerning Hurricane Helene... please DO
NOT focus on the exact track of this system. Impacts and hazards
extend well beyond the main track. The time is NOW to make
preparations as this is a quickly evolving system.

Hurricane Helene is expected to quickly track northward and
strengthen to major hurricane status prior to making landfall on
Thursday evening. This is a largely quick moving system and
widespread impacts are expected across North and Central Georgia
Thursday into Friday. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for
extreme south-central GA (Harris County up to Schley and Macon,
eastward to Pulaski and Wilcox counties), a Tropical Storm Warning
in effect for Harris County as far east as Bibb County and then all
counties southward to the Hurricane Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch
encompasses the remainder of  North and Central GA (including metro
ATL). As this system continues to evolve potential upgrades may be
warranted. A breakdown of the hazards is listed below:

*Intense Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding:

A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of North and Central GA
through Friday afternoon. Depending on how this situation evolves
over the next 48 hours this may need to be extended in time. With
heavy rainfall already occurring today saturating the soils, there
is a growing concern for the flash flooding risk and potentially
historic rainfall on Thursday as a result of this tropical system.
Forecast rainfall totals for Thursday ranging 3 to 6 inches with
locally higher amounts. Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Today through
Friday evening ranging 4 to 10 inches with amounts over 12 inches
possible. WPC maintains a Moderate Risk (Level 3 out of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall for the majority of North and Central GA with a
High Risk (Level 4 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall encompassing the
Southern Appalachians (northeast GA). Needless to say the threat
for potential life threatening flash flooding is increasing.

*Tropical Storm Force Winds:

With this latest forecast update, the potential for areas
experiencing tropical storm force (and even hurricane force) winds
has increased. Areas currently in the Hurricane Warning could see
hurricane and tropical storm force winds potentially exceeding 70
MPH. This coupled with intense heavy rainfall and saturated soils,
will likely lead to widespread and extended power outages as a
result of downed powerlines and trees.

*Short-lived, brief tornadoes:

Tornado development in association with tropical system typically
favor the northeast quadrant of the storm relative to its motion
within the outer rainbands. Thus, based on Hurricane Helene's
current trend a good portion of southeast and east-central GA are in
the more 'ideal' location where quick, short-lived tornadoes could
develop in the rainbands. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a
Slight (Level 2 out of 5) to Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) in the
areas previously mentioned.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

out of Georgia by late Friday morning and absorb into the broader
trough extending over the Southeast. After copious amounts of
rainfall through Friday morning, considerably drier conditions are
favored through the long term. The remnant low will extend from the
Ohio Valley southward through the weekend. The focus for most
additional rainfall will thus be to our north, but isolated to
widely scattered PoPs will linger mainly across far north Georgia
through early next week. A larger scale trough should push a cold
front into the area mid next week with a renewed push of drier
air.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A wide axis of SHRA/TSRA continues to extend from near CSG to the
far northeast GA, including over ATL. This is expected to
continue in waves with deteriorating ceilings through tonight.
MVFR ceilings, with some scattered IFR underneath, are expected by
02-03Z this morning. Ceilings are forecast to lower to IFR by 06Z
and remain so through the end of the period. LIFR may be briefly
possible in the early morning hours after 10Z. Winds are will be
primarily E to NE, from 7-12 kts this evening and overnight. As
Helene moves closer to the TAF sites, winds will begin to
gradually increase through the daytime on Thursday. By tomorrow
afternoon, winds will increase to 12-15 kts with gusts of 22-30
kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  74  67  77 / 100 100 100  40
Atlanta         67  73  66  75 / 100 100 100  40
Blairsville     61  69  62  71 / 100 100 100  90
Cartersville    64  74  65  75 /  90 100 100  60
Columbus        69  76  67  78 / 100 100 100  30
Gainesville     65  72  67  74 / 100 100 100  60
Macon           69  77  68  79 / 100 100 100  20
Rome            64  75  66  76 /  90 100 100  80
Peachtree City  66  73  65  75 / 100 100 100  30
Vidalia         72  81  73  84 /  90 100 100  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-
030>039-041>062-066>076-078-084>086-097-098-111>113.

Hurricane Warning for GAZ079>083-089>096-102>110.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
308 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
308 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Periods of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, which are
not associated with Helene, will continue across portions of
north and central Georgia. The greatest potential for flash
flooding will be roughly along the Interstate 85 corridor. In
addition, a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds will
be possible. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

A Flood Watch is in effect for north and central Georgia through
Friday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected across
the area with hurricane conditions also possible in portions of
central Georgia. Strong, damaging wind gusts and significant,
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding are
expected. Expect strong winds to bring widespread and potentially
extended power outages.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation especially from
Thursday through Friday morning. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local
and state guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
427 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

GAZ052-053-066-067-078-252115-
Harris GA-Coweta GA-Heard GA-Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
427 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Meriwether, southeastern Heard, Troup, southwestern Coweta and
northwestern Harris Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 427 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over River View, or near
Valley, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Newnan, LaGrange, Franklin, West Point, Hogansville, Grantville,
Luthersville, Moreland, Lone Oak, East Newnan, Corinth, Mountville,
Cannonville, Louise, Odessadale, Stovall, Piedmont Heights,
Harrisonville, Hillcrest, and Big Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3336 8508 3337 8478 3318 8462 3264 8510
      3264 8511 3266 8509 3269 8512 3271 8512
      3274 8511 3276 8514 3278 8512 3281 8517
      3283 8517 3285 8515 3286 8519 3302 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 195DEG 33KT 3281 8510

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
513 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

GAZ021-022-032>034-042>046-052>055-057-067-252200-
Fayette GA-Rockdale GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
Heard GA-Meriwether GA-Henry GA-South Fulton GA-North Fulton GA-
Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Clayton GA-Cherokee GA-DeKalb GA-
513 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of DeKalb, Fayette,
north central Meriwether, southeastern Carroll, Douglas, central
Gwinnett, northeastern Heard, central Rockdale, south central
Cherokee, southwestern Forsyth, central Cobb, northwestern Henry,
Coweta, Fulton and Clayton Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over College Park, or 8
miles northwest of Jonesboro, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Marietta, Newnan, Douglasville, Lawrenceville, Decatur,
Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Peachtree Corners, City of South Fulton,
Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody,
Peachtree City, East Point, Duluth, and Stockbridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 8509 3413 8444 3410 8406 3384 8393
      3317 8462 3337 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 194DEG 16KT 3360 8447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
530 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

GAZ090-102-252200-
Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-
530 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Chattahoochee and northern Stewart Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 529 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Louvale, or 10 miles
northwest of Lumpkin, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain. This storm is also being monitored for
         increased rotation.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Omaha, Louvale, and Jamestown/South Fort Moore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3216 8503 3218 8501 3220 8496 3221 8498
      3222 8498 3222 8492 3224 8491 3225 8492
      3226 8489 3229 8492 3235 8484 3219 8469
      3208 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 229DEG 18KT 3217 8491

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
602 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

GAZ102-252230-
Stewart GA-
602 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Stewart
County through 630 PM EDT...

At 602 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Sanford, or 9 miles
northeast of Georgetown, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lumpkin, Sanford, Westville, and Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8491 3194 8495 3197 8496 3198 8496
      3198 8502 3197 8504 3199 8504 3199 8507
      3202 8505 3205 8506 3214 8495 3211 8481
      3198 8474 3192 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 229DEG 18KT 3198 8498

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
821 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

GAZ080-081-260045-
Taylor GA-Crawford GA-
821 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Crawford and northeastern Taylor Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 820 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Fickling Mill, or near
Butler, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain. This storm is also showing periods of rotation.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Roberta, Knoxville, Horns, and Fickling Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3256 8417 3262 8426 3278 8411 3277 8400
      3267 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 221DEG 22KT 3262 8415

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH