River Flood Warning 198, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

Key Messages:

 - Much cooler temperatures.

 - Wrap-around moisture will bring clouds and possible light showers
   to the extreme N through Thursday.

Last night's cold front has cleared the area, sweeping most of the
rain out with it. In its wake, skies have become mostly sunny across
much of the area, with a bit more clouds across the SE and NW zones.
Winds have been quite gusty, with a few locations reporting
occasional gusts to around 35 mph.

Another mid-level disturbance will round the base of the E coast
trough late Thursday. This, in concert with lingering wrap-around
moisture, may squeeze out some light showers across the extreme
northern mountains through Thursday. A few snow flakes are not out of
the question in the highest elevations of the NE, but no
accumulation is expected. Mostly cloudy skies are possible S to near
the Atlanta metro area, particularly Thursday afternoon.

W to NW winds will continue to be quite gusty through Thursday. In
fact, winds may reach Wind Advisory criteria in the NE zones during
the day Thursday. Will hold off with advisory issuance for now so
that the oncoming shifts can re-evaluate.

Temperatures will be much cooler tonight than last night, with lows
ranging from the mid 30s in the NE mountains to near 50 in the
extreme SE. No frost is anticipated tonight due to the gusty winds.
However, winds are expected to diminish late Thursday night. As a
result, frost is possible across our NW zones, with a light freeze
possible over the extreme NE.

As fuel moisture dries out rapidly with the dry air and gusty winds,
minimum RH values will need to be monitored for fire weather concerns
over the next several days. It appears RH values may be a bit above
criteria for a Fire Danger Statement on Thursday, but the continued
gusty winds may support erring on the side of caution if fuel
conditions support it. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

Thursday night, the 500 mb closed low and the surface low will be
shifting over New England. As the shift of this system off to the
east occurs at the beginning of the period, the forecast area will be
under northwest flow and high pressure will build in at the surface.
As such, very dry conditions will persist through the weekend,
potentially bringing concerns over fire weather danger over the
weekend as fuels and minimum relative humidities may approach
critical thresholds.

Late Sunday into Monday, a shortwave will quickly traverse the
northern Plains as another shortwave rounds the base of the trough,
eventually snapping off from the main flow and becoming cut off.
Despite model guidance spread in the evolution of this system, we'll
see moisture return as the ridge overhead shifts eastward, placing
us in southwesterly flow. As this system deepens across the Plains,
it will bring a weak line of showers and storms to the area resulting
in a chance of rain and isolated storms over north Georgia and
portions of central Georgia as early as overnight Sunday and lasting
through Monday. As the northern cut off low ejects northeastward in
the vicinity of the Great Lakes and the southern low churns in the
vicinity of the Four Corners Region, a surface low over the southern
Plains will produce a swath of rain and a few isolated thunderstorms
across north Georgia Tuesday.

Temperatures will be running ~5 to 15 degrees below normal through
Saturday with high temperatures in the mid 50s to 60s (with
mountainous areas only topping out in the upper 30s and 40s) and low
temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. As a result, patchy frost will be
possible during the overnight hours Thursday, Friday, and Sunday.
Temperatures will then rebound into the upper 60s and 70s by Sunday
and will kick off a gradual warming trend through midweek where highs
will run into the mid to upper 70s.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the period. CU has thinned
considerably at TAF sites. Wrap-around cloudiness across NW GA still
looks mostly scattered as well. May be some broken CU during the day
Thu as wrap-around moisture continues. There is uncertainty how far S
the cigs will get, so have opted for a tempo BKN toward the end of
the TAF period at several Atlanta metro sites. Went with a prevailing
BKN060 at ATL after 20Z Thu, but this might be pessimistic as
thicker clouds will likely stay just to the N of the metro area.
Gusty W-NW winds will continue. Speeds will diminish a bit later this
evening through the early morning hours, but many areas will still
see higher gusts (just not as frequent).

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium with S extent and thickness of wrap-around cloudiness, high
all other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          41  60  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         43  60  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     35  50  32  53 /  20  10  10   0
Cartersville    39  59  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        44  66  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     42  57  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           44  65  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            41  60  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  41  62  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         49  67  45  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...SEC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>