River Flood Warning 186, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
158 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

As the shortwave deepens and progresses over the Great Lakes region
this afternoon and evening, a cold front that is currently draped
over northern Alabama will slowly push into the area. The bulk of
the rainfall has now exited the forecast area, but additional
showers produced by lift from the frontal boundary approaching
coinciding with upper level divergence will be possible through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Showers will mainly be confined
to far north Georgia, but our far southeastern counties could also
stand the chance to see a few more showers (and even an isolated
thunderstorm where instability remains in place in this portion of
the CWA) through the afternoon. The flash flooding and severe
weather threats have diminished for the day, however, several
creeks, streams, and rivers are expected to crest at minor to
moderate flood stages and will remain a concern over the next
several days.

The main story for the short term forecast will be the elevated
sustained winds and breezy gusts as the frontal boundary passes
through. Sustained northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph this afternoon
will gradually increase to 15 to 18 mph through Sunday. Wind gusts
from 20 to 25+ mph will be possible areawide with a few locations
along the ridgetops in the north Georgia mountains approaching gusts
between 30 and 35 mph. Have opted to hold off on a Wind Advisory
with this forecast package as these wind gusts will likely be
isolated in nature and confined to areas of high terrain. However,
should guidance suggest more widespread strong gusts, a Wind
Advisory for Sunday may need to be considered in future forecast
cycles. Given the elevated wind speeds and broken to overcast cloud
coverage overnight, frost is not expected to develop overnight
despite low temperatures bottoming out in the low to mid 30s. This
afternoon, temperatures topping out in the mid 70s will be confined
to areas south of the warm front (currently draped south of I-20)
while areas to the north north will be in the 60s. Tomorrow with the
cooler and drier airmass in place, high temperatures will range from
the 50s to mid 60s. Skies should gradually clear through the day on
Sunday.

KAL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

At a glance:

- Dry air will return to the area and stick around well into next
  week. Temperatures will gradually increase as we approach the
  weekend with relative humidities rising with them.

-Another system takes aim at the SE by next Friday. Still too far
out to identify impacts

Temperatures are expected to fall toward freezing on Sunday night
and into Monday morning. Areas of patchy frost are possible on
Monday morning. An advisory may be needed as the threat for frost
moves into the short term forecast. Temps gradually start to warm
on Tuesday and Wednesday but conditions will remain dry and
depending on how quickly fuels can dry out we may have some fire
weather concerns.

By Thursday a surge of warm air will push into the area driving
temps and dewpoints up out ahead of the next storm system. It's to
early to tell the magnitude of the next system or the local impacts
it may bring, but it is spring in the south and as a result
thunderstorms are defiantly possible. A few of the models are
indicating the front will stall as it approaches our area which has
resulted in chances of precip becoming more uniform in the slight
category.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

IFR cigs/vsbys across northern terminals will gradually improve
to MVFR through the afternoon. MVFR cigs/vsbys anticipated
overnight at all TAF sites improving to VFR by tomorrow morning
around sunrise. NW winds around 5KT will increase to 13-15KT as a
front approaches this afternoon. Sustained NW winds will remain
elevated through TAF period with gusts between 23-26KT expected.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          41  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         41  56  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     33  50  30  60 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    38  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        45  63  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     39  56  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           45  62  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            38  57  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  40  58  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         49  64  40  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...KAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
501 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through tonight. Additional
heavy rainfall is ongoing across portions of central Georgia that
should come to an end later this morning. Flash flooding will
remain possible. Flooding of creeks, streams, and rivers is
ongoing in some locations and will continue to expand this
afternoon. Please remember to avoid flooded roadways. Turn
around, don't drown.

A Slight Risk is in effect this morning for portions of central
Georgia. An isolated strong wind gust or a brief tornado is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.