River Flood Warning 133, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

Widespread showers with the occasional thunderstorm will overspread
the outlook area tonight and linger well into tomorrow. On average,
one to two inches of rain is likely with locally higher amounts
possible. The rain should begin to end from west to east by late
morning to early afternoon tomorrow.

250mb jet dynamics and a potent mid level shortwave will combine to
provide broad lift across the CWA tonight and early tomorrow. The
mid/upper systems will coincide with a surface low that will move
across central portions of the CWA. Surface instability is minimal,
but with strong forcing in the mid levels, some embedded thunder is
possible within the showers. With PWATs close to an inch and a half
across much of GA, locally heavy rainfall will definitely be
possible. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of
producing potentially heavy downpours.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

Looking at the long term, starting Thursday we will see a break in
the rainfall as the next wave develops to our west. Friday into
Saturday at shortwave looks to move through the overall pattern
resulting in increased moisture. The cold front that moves through
in the short term is forecast to lift northward at the same time as
this energy swing eastward which is forecast to result in increased
rainfall to setup along that warm frontal boundary. With this will
come a setup that is conducive to flooding potential for Friday into
Saturday. On the higher end we are looking at up to 5" along that
frontal boundary and from 2-4" everywhere else. Currently the
frontal boundary looks to lift to the Columbus-Macon line which is
where the axis of heaviest rainfall looks to setup. There has been
model variance so this could change the next day or two before the
event.

Following this wave into the weekend, ridging sets up over the
eastern CONUS which will lead to drier conditions and temps
rebounding into the 60-70 degree range.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

An upper level disturbance will bring widespread rainfall to the
area later this afternoon/evening and overnight. Do think cigs
will go down pretty quickly late this afternoon and remain IFR
through early tomorrow afternoon. Generally 3-6sm shra expected,
but there could be periods where the vsbys are lower in the
heavier showers. Thunder chances are too small to mention at this
time. East winds should shift to the west side by 09-11Z Wed.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  67  47  73 / 100  80  20   0
Atlanta         57  68  50  72 / 100  60  10   0
Blairsville     52  62  45  70 / 100  80  20   0
Cartersville    55  68  47  73 / 100  60  10   0
Columbus        61  74  51  77 /  70  20  10   0
Gainesville     55  67  48  71 / 100  70  10   0
Macon           60  72  50  75 /  90  30  10   0
Rome            56  70  48  73 / 100  80  10   0
Peachtree City  57  70  48  74 /  90  40  10   0
Vidalia         61  75  53  76 / 100  40  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061700-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1148 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected in the
region today. Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will conclude by
Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are
expected.

Widespread rainfall and scattered thunderstorms are expected
Friday and Saturday. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding Friday
into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.