River Flood Warning 129, NWS Atlanta, GA

150 
WGUS82 KFFC 061021
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
521 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2024

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson 
  Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Oconee River near Penfield affecting Oglethorpe, Oconee and 
  Greene Counties.

For the Middle Oconee River...including Auburn, Winder, Arcade, 
Athens...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Oconee River Basin...including Penfield, Milledgeville, 
Oconee, Oconee, McIntyre, Irwinton, Oconee, Dublin, Mount Vernon...
Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 530 PM EST.

&&

GAC013-157-062230-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0129.240306T2006Z-240307T2017Z/
/ACDG1.1.ER.240306T2006Z.240307T0000Z.240307T1417Z.NO/
521 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Middle Oconee River near Arcade.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18 feet, Minor flooding continues in the woodlands...
  fields and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at 
  Georgia Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard 
  just downstream will be flooded with up to two feet of water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:30 AM EST Wednesday the stage was 6.1 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this afternoon to a crest of 18.6 feet this evening. It
    will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 16 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3404 8377 3410 8375 3406 8355 3400 8347
      3395 8352 3402 8363


$$

GAC133-219-221-062230-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0133.240308T0045Z-240309T1120Z/
/PNFG1.1.ER.240308T0045Z.240308T1200Z.240309T0520Z.NO/
521 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oconee River near Penfield.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening to Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 15 feet, Minor flooding continues to expand into 
  fields...woodlands and pastures...mainly on the right bank of the 
  river...upstream and downstream from the gage on the Georgia 
  Highway 15 bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 AM EST Wednesday the stage was 6.8 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow evening to a crest of 14.3 feet Friday morning. It
    will then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 13 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3364 8325 3364 8333 3383 8333 3384 8326


$$

239 
WGUS82 KFFC 061832
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
132 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Jackson and Barrow 
  Counties.

GAC013-157-061945-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0129.240306T2006Z-240306T1832Z/
/ACDG1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
132 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Middle Oconee River near Arcade.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:30 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 12.2 feet and was
    near crest.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall through the night
    and Thursday reaching 6.0 feet by tomorrow evening.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3404 8377 3410 8375 3406 8355 3400 8347
      3395 8352 3402 8363


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

Widespread showers with the occasional thunderstorm will overspread
the outlook area tonight and linger well into tomorrow. On average,
one to two inches of rain is likely with locally higher amounts
possible. The rain should begin to end from west to east by late
morning to early afternoon tomorrow.

250mb jet dynamics and a potent mid level shortwave will combine to
provide broad lift across the CWA tonight and early tomorrow. The
mid/upper systems will coincide with a surface low that will move
across central portions of the CWA. Surface instability is minimal,
but with strong forcing in the mid levels, some embedded thunder is
possible within the showers. With PWATs close to an inch and a half
across much of GA, locally heavy rainfall will definitely be
possible. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of
producing potentially heavy downpours.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 249 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

Looking at the long term, starting Thursday we will see a break in
the rainfall as the next wave develops to our west. Friday into
Saturday at shortwave looks to move through the overall pattern
resulting in increased moisture. The cold front that moves through
in the short term is forecast to lift northward at the same time as
this energy swing eastward which is forecast to result in increased
rainfall to setup along that warm frontal boundary. With this will
come a setup that is conducive to flooding potential for Friday into
Saturday. On the higher end we are looking at up to 5" along that
frontal boundary and from 2-4" everywhere else. Currently the
frontal boundary looks to lift to the Columbus-Macon line which is
where the axis of heaviest rainfall looks to setup. There has been
model variance so this could change the next day or two before the
event.

Following this wave into the weekend, ridging sets up over the
eastern CONUS which will lead to drier conditions and temps
rebounding into the 60-70 degree range.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

An upper level disturbance will bring widespread rainfall to the
area later this afternoon/evening and overnight. Do think cigs
will go down pretty quickly late this afternoon and remain IFR
through early tomorrow afternoon. Generally 3-6sm shra expected,
but there could be periods where the vsbys are lower in the
heavier showers. Thunder chances are too small to mention at this
time. East winds should shift to the west side by 09-11Z Wed.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  67  47  73 / 100  80  20   0
Atlanta         57  68  50  72 / 100  60  10   0
Blairsville     52  62  45  70 / 100  80  20   0
Cartersville    55  68  47  73 / 100  60  10   0
Columbus        61  74  51  77 /  70  20  10   0
Gainesville     55  67  48  71 / 100  70  10   0
Macon           60  72  50  75 /  90  30  10   0
Rome            56  70  48  73 / 100  80  10   0
Peachtree City  57  70  48  74 /  90  40  10   0
Vidalia         61  75  53  76 / 100  40  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061700-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1148 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected in the
region today. Severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will conclude by
Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are
expected.

Widespread rainfall and scattered thunderstorms are expected
Friday and Saturday. Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding Friday
into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.