Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Atlanta, GA

132 
WGUS52 KFFC 091236
FFWFFC
GAC085-123-129-187-213-227-313-091330-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-240509T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
836 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northern Dawson County in north central Georgia...
  Southern Gilmer County in north central Georgia...
  Southwestern Lumpkin County in north central Georgia...
  Northern Pickens County in north central Georgia...
  Northern Gordon County in northwestern Georgia...
  Southwestern Murray County in northwestern Georgia...
  South Central Whitfield County in northwestern Georgia...

* Until 930 AM EDT.

* At 836 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 
  3 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up 
  to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
  ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Calhoun, Dahlonega, Jasper, Dawsonville, Resaca, Talking Rock, 
  Ranger, Sequoyah Lake, Lake Tamarack, Talona, Blaine, Roundtop, 
  Fausett Lake, Hinton, Amicalola Falls State Park, Len Foote Hike 
  Inn, Juno, Black Gap Shelter, Carters and Oakman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 8426 3464 8420 3460 8419 3464 8416
      3465 8407 3460 8399 3446 8394 3441 8398
      3442 8423 3455 8505 3459 8507 3462 8506
      3465 8489 3459 8428

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
121 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

A nearly stationary frontal boundary currently extends from S New
England SW to near Kansas City. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
extend across NC and TN to MO in a very moist and unstable warm
sector. A few discrete strong to severe storms have also fired
across extreme NE GA and NW SC. Mid-level flow is fairly zonal, with
stronger short waves and/or lows well to the N. However,
disturbances farther S continue to force convection in the juicy
environment.

Models continue to indicate a shortwave dropping SE across N GA late
tonight. Many high resolution models bring thunderstorms S later
tonight into an environment with MUCAPES of 2000 J/kg or higher and
effective shear values of 30-40 knots. This should continue to
support strong to severe thunderstorms, with wind and hail the main
threats. There will also be a risk of isolated tornadoes, mainly
across the extreme N. Heavy rainfall will also be a threat, as storm
motion will likely nearly parallel the orientation of the axis of
storms.

As these storms continue to progress S, some guidance weakens them
late tonight and early Thu. However, this solution is highly
uncertain given the continuing instability and shear across the
area. Even if these storms do weaken, there will likely be a
lingering boundary formed by the cool pool leftover from the storms
that will act as an additional focusing mechanism for storm
redevelopment later in the day on Thu. Instability and shear near
and S of the old outflow boundary will be high. The greatest
uncertainty with this feature will revolve around how stable the air
is N of the old outflow boundary and how that limits convection
initiation farther to the N.

A potent shortwave will move across the S portion of the area late
Thu night and into Fri, supporting more strong to severe
thunderstorms across the S portion of the area. The S boundary of
the cool pool will likely help focus these storms. Due to the slow
advancement of a cold front to the S and the E storm motion along a W-
E aligned line of storms, locally heavy rainfall is definitely
possible.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Highlights:

-Shower and thunderstorm activity continues on Friday mainly for the
southern two-thirds of the forecast area.

-Drier weather briefly returns this weekend before rain makes
another appearance early next week.

Latest hi-res guidance is coming into better agreement with bringing
an MCS originating in East TX across the Southeast states Thursday
night through early Friday morning. With decent instability,
another surge of moisture (PWs surging between 1-2" range) and
plenty of shear another early morning wind threat Friday morning
(start of the long term period) will be possible for areas I-20
southward. As stated in previous forecast discussions, guidance
tends to struggle with exact placement and evolution of MCS
features thus there are a few uncertainties with regards to the
exact path of this overnight/early morning MCS. Additionally, what
occurs Friday morning will impact what occurs for the remainder
of the day -- i.e. redevelopment across the southeast in the
vicinity of the southward moving cold front or lack of development
due to a 'worked over' environment. In addition to the severe
threat localized flooding will also be a concern given multiple
rounds of active weather in the short term and the start of the
long term period. Will continue to monitor in later forecast
updates.

Otherwise, a cold front that will be situated across North GA will
continue migrating southward as a shortwave to our north swings
eastward. This will act to gradually bring any shower or
thunderstorm activity to an end by Friday evening. A brief period of
dry and slightly cooler weather is expected this weekend as we
return to northwest flow aloft. Rain chances look to return to the
region next week as another low pressure system developing in the
Southern Plains moves eastward.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Thunderstorms currently to the north will continue to sag
southward tonight. Progress has slowed a little, so have adjusted
the timing back one hour for the tempo group. Line that moves
through close to 11-12Z will have the potential for severe
storms. Upped the gusts to 45kt. A brief period of shra possible
on the back side of the line, but quick clearing of precip
thereafter. SCT cu for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will
remain on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med-high confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  80  51  77 /  20  20   0   0
Atlanta         65  79  54  77 /  20  20   0   0
Blairsville     57  70  45  69 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    61  77  49  76 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus        68  84  57  79 /  60  50   0   0
Gainesville     65  78  52  75 /  10  10   0   0
Macon           67  82  55  79 /  30  30   0   0
Rome            62  77  50  78 /  10  10   0   0
Peachtree City  63  80  52  78 /  20  20   0   0
Vidalia         71  85  60  80 /  30  60  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1003 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-100215-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1003 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Thunderstorms are currently pushing eastward into north Georgia.
They are producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy
rainfall. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible in the far
northern tier. A Tornado Watch is in effect in this area until
midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Periods of thunderstorm activity will continue in the region through
Friday ahead of a cold front. The highest risk of severe weather
will shift southward through Friday morning. Damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and a couple of brief tornadoes are all possible. In
addition, locally heavy rainfall is expected as storm motion
parallels the orientation of storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1136 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Blue Spring             34.88N 85.22W
05/08/2024                   Catoosa            GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down in 3500 block of Burning Bush Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1143 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     Hail             3 NNW North Georgia Spe 34.73N 84.85W
05/08/2024  M1.00 Inch       Murray             GA   Amateur Radio

            1 inch hail at Tibbs Bridge Rd and New Hope
            Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1145 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE North Georgia Spe 34.72N 84.82W
05/08/2024                   Murray             GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down at Gudger Rd and Hwy 225 S.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     Flash Flood      3 SSW Rocky Face        34.77N 85.05W
05/08/2024                   Whitfield          GA   Emergency Mngr

            Vehicle overturned and filled with water at
            Utility rd and Miracle Dr.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
149 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

GAZ023>025-027-090645-
Madison GA-Banks GA-Hall GA-Jackson GA-
149 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Banks, northern Hall,
northeastern Jackson and Madison Counties through 245 AM EDT...

At 148 AM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Gainesville to near Royston, and moving southeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Commerce, Homer, Danielsville, Lula, Maysville,
Nicholson, Ila, Gillsville, Pocataligo, Pinefield Crossroads, Paoli,
Murrayville, Banks Crossing, and Apple Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for north central
and northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8339 3427 8334 3424 8334 3426 8330
      3425 8327 3424 8317 3427 8311 3426 8312
      3423 8308 3417 8310 3415 8306 3409 8302
      3409 8337 3439 8398 3440 8397 3441 8398
      3442 8397 3444 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 299DEG 13KT 3432 8378 3429 8305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
218 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

GAZ013-014-021>023-090645-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-Pickens GA-
218 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Cherokee, Forsyth, Dawson, southwestern Hall and southeastern Pickens
Counties through 245 AM EDT...

At 218 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Lathemtown, or 11 miles
east of Canton, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Canton, Cumming, Dawsonville, Ball Ground, Free Home, Buffington,
Dougherty, Drew, Coal Mountain, Hightower, Juno, Matt, Aqualand Park,
Silver City, Chestatee, Oscarville, Hollis Lathem Reservoir,
Holbrook, Lathemtown, and Ducktown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for north central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8410 3434 8389 3418 8395 3415 8402
      3417 8406 3412 8411 3417 8426 3419 8426
      3419 8431 3424 8447 3454 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 299DEG 27KT 3429 8430

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH