Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
632 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Skies have cleared out west with some low and high clouds continuing
across the eastern two-thirds of the area early this afternoon.
Southerly flow is breezy at times with temperatures in the 70s and
80s. With the clearing out west, temperatures in the 90s and
possibly upper 90s may be possible out there late this afternoon. A
large trough axis remains to our west and lift associated with this
system is expected to arrive this evening at the same time as a
frontal boundary. This should allow for some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop. This should initially occur
over the northern Hill Country around 8-10 pm then possible spread
southeast throughout the remainder of the evening period. High-res
model soundings do some convective inhibition in place, but latest
runs of the HRRR show initiation. The convective environment would
be supportive of some large hail with steep mid-level lapse rates in
place. Shear values will also be supportive of organized convection
should thunderstorms initiate. Large hail and damaging winds would
be the main risk, but 0-3km SRH values do support a non-zero tornado
threat and can't completely rule that out. Most of the high-res
models have the activity dissipating by 6z as they enter the Coastal
Plains with just some lingering non-severe showers and perhaps a
storm.

Once the boundary moves through the region, much drier air and some
west/northwest winds will filter into the area. Mostly clear skies
can be expected by tomorrow morning with lows reaching into the 50s
to middle 60s. Clear skies will continue into tomorrow with highs
reaching the 70s to lower 80s. Humidity values will drop to near 20
percent or less across areas west and south of I10/I37. This in
combination with breezy northwesterly winds at the surface should
create near critical to critical fire weather conditions mainly near
the Rio Grande. Will likely need a Grassfire Danger Statement or
perhaps a Red Flag Warning for some of the southwestern counties
tomorrow. With dry air in place and weakening winds, lows tomorrow
night will be on the cooler side in the 40s to near 50 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Seasonable and more comfortable weather trends through mid to late
week across South-Central Texas. Lower humidity levels will trend
under mostly clear skies. Northerly breezes diminish into Wednesday
afternoon before becoming light and variable from Wednesday night
into early Thursday. Winds become south-southeasterly towards late
Thursday and increase into and through the day on Friday. Friday
with the uptick in the southerly flow should see moisture and cloud
cover start to gradually increase. Lingering upper level energy
across the region into midweek becomes more strung out and should
have little if any impact to our sensible weather. No rain will be
expected through Friday. Areas out west closer to the Rio Grande
could see some elevated fire weather concerns in the afternoons but
wind speeds could stay enough both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon
that may help preclude this potential. Afternoon highs across the
region are to range from the mid 70s into the mid 80s while the
overnight lows dip into the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

The upper level pattern is to become more active out west through
this upcoming weekend. The first of two separate upper level lows
moves through the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains from
Saturday into Sunday. This will send a cold front across the area
from Saturday night into Sunday morning. There will be a chance to
slight chance for rain and thunderstorms with this front in the
area. Post-frontal northwesterly winds filters in behind this front
through Sunday but the medium range model guidance indicates that
this flow may be short-lived as the winds quickly respond to the
approach of the next upper level low into the Desert Southwest by
returning out of the southeast from Sunday night towards Monday
morning. The cloud cover into Monday morning remains forecast to
increase thanks to the southeasterly moisture return and with the
strengthening southwesterly flow aloft in the advance of that next
upper level system. Rain chances also may start to filter in as
well. While a cloudy and possibly wet solution is most favored at
this time with approach towards the Solar Eclipse timeframe, there
remains plenty of time to analyze medium range guidance as some
ensemble members with recent model runs have slightly slowed that
moisture return with the southeasterly flow in comparison to the
previous runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Ceilings have returned to VFR at all sites as a front begins to move
across South Central Texas. This boundary will pass through DRT
between 00-01Z, with I-35 sites sometime between 03-06Z. Expect a
broken line of showers and thunderstorms to move across I-35 sites
with the better chances for TSRA at AUS/SAT. After the frontal
passage, winds will shift from the northwest and become gusty late
morning through Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              60  80  51  76 /  50   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  60  80  49  76 /  50   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     60  81  49  77 /  40   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            56  72  46  75 /  60   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           60  81  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        59  75  47  75 /  60   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             57  82  47  79 /  40   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        59  80  48  76 /  40   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  80  48  75 /  40   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       61  81  51  77 /  50   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           62  83  50  78 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...27

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
708 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-030015-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
708 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a level 1 to 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms through
early Tuesday morning across parts of the southern Edwards
Plateau, Hill Country, the I-35 corridor and into the coastal
plains. The main hazards are large hail and strong damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The severe weather threat comes to an end overnight/early Tuesday
morning.

Fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical along
the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau on Tuesday. A
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is likely to be issued for this
day. No other hazardous weather is expected at this time for the
rest of the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters please report any severe weather to the National Weather
Service.

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