Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

474 
WWUS84 KEWX 030156
RFWEWX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
856 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024


TXZ183-202>204-217>219-228-030300-
/O.EXP.KEWX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-240403T0200Z/
Val Verde-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina-Maverick-Zavala-Frio-Dimmit-
856 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS 
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...

Relative humidity continues to improve above critical values late
this evening as gusty winds decrease. Dry conditions are forecast
again for Wednesday afternoon, although winds will be lighter. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
644 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Fun times had in the overnight hours with a major outage preventing
active weather and radar products from getting to the outside world
for several hours. Fortunately this has been resolved but some
minor issues may remain due to the length of outage.

In any event, we apologize for some delays in forecast and narrative
data we provide in the overnight hours. Fortunately, the road
forward on our forecast is expected to be smoother, at least in the
short-term.

Gusty NW winds are expected for today and this evening which will
make for a much easier cloud and temperature forecast for today and
tonight. NBM auto populate appears reasonable on the short-term
temps with cooler temps today and tonight, and seasonally mild day
for Wednesday. So the main dilemma is for how winds might impact the
fire weather environment as discussed in more detail below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

Southerly flow in the lower levels will return on Thursday and this
will allow highs to inch upward a degree or two across the region.
This should yield daytime highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
Temperatures should remain fairly consistent into Friday as short-
wave ridging briefly builds in from the west and southerly flow
quickly ramps up. Some increase in mid and upper level moisture ahead
of an upper level low pressure system may also result in some
increase in cloudiness. We expect to see enough moisture in the lower
levels to result in widespread low cloud development from late
Friday evening into Saturday morning. As the upper level system
mentioned above continues to push eastward across the southern
Rockies into the southern plains, an accompanying Pacific cold front
will move in from the west. Some shower and thunderstorms are
expected along the boundary Saturday night into Sunday, with rain
chances favored over the Hill Country into portions of the I-35
corridor near and north of Austin. Exactly how far the Pacific front
pushes east/south is uncertain, with the GFS most aggressive in
showing the front near or just south of the coastal plains midday
Monday. The ECMWF shows no sign of the front with return southerly
flow well in place. This will definitely have an impact on rain
chances and sky cover on Monday and we will hope the next round of
model data shows some consistency with regards to the forecast on
Monday. For now, we will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast for most of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

The potential for an MVFR cig appears to have finally dissolved after
a secondary surge of convective activity brought some into the
picture at SAT up to 09Z where some of the heavier rains fell. Winds
are light presently, but an increase and some gusts are expected by
15Z at all sites with DRT perhaps seeing some of the stronger winds.
The midday winds may be slightly lower than the late afternoon winds
as models are trending for a deeper cold air advection or deeper
layer of cold front by around 22Z or 23Z. This early evening boost of
winds isn't expected to last late into the evening, as surface
ridging will have already settled in over the area. Light winds and
trouble-free skies should finish out the late periods of the TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

In the wake of the lead shortwave of the upper trough, the polar
front has come through but is somewhat shallow. Daytime winds will
become gusty to the tune of 30-35 mph with some downsloping to help
minimize the strength of the cool air advection. Some model data
shows a steady packing of the surface pressure gradient through the
evening, while other show localized peaks in the morning and again in
the late afternoon/early evening. Should this be the case, the
impact on fire weather winds might be to not have the stronger winds
in the areas with lowest RH values. Thus we'll shy away from the RFW
for a small area around DRT as is suggested and let the day crew get
a late morning look should the wind trends change. As it is, we'll be
looking at a good sized RFD statement to cover the western Hill
Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains (generally west of a
line from Kerrville to Sabinal to Catarina, based on a marriage of
imagery of the latest herbaceous greenness map from TFS and the
precipitation estimates from the last 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              49  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  49  78  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     48  80  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            46  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           51  84  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        47  78  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             46  82  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        47  79  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   48  76  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       50  80  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           50  81  49  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
421 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
421 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical over the Rio
Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country
this afternoon into early this evening. A Fire Danger Statement
is in effect for this area from 11 AM to 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
243 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     Hail             2 NE San Marcos         29.90N 97.92W
04/02/2024  M1.00 inch       Hays               TX   Emergency Mngr

            Picture of 1 inch hail with measurement
            received by Texas State EM.

&&

MO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
523 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     Hail             Johnson City            30.27N 98.41W
04/01/2024  E2.00 inch       Blanco             TX   Public

            Near hen egg sized hail pictured next to an
            egg, relayed from the public to the media.

&&

MO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
537 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     Hail             2 N Bee Cave            30.33N 97.96W
04/01/2024  M1.50 inch       Travis             TX   Public

            Picture of measured hail stone relayed from
            the public to the news media. Time adjusted
            based on radar.

&&

MO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
545 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     Hail             2 NNW Mansfield Dam     30.41N 97.92W
04/01/2024  E1.50 inch       Travis             TX   Public

            Picture of several near ping pong ball sized
            hailstones relayed from the public to news
            media. Time estimated by radar.

&&

MO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
607 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     Hail             1 NNW Bee Cave          30.32N 97.96W
04/01/2024  M1.25 inch       Travis             TX   Trained Spotter

            Measured picture of 1.25 inch hail shared on
            social media.

&&

MO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
615 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     Hail             2 SE Mansfield Dam      30.38N 97.89W
04/01/2024  E1.00 inch       Travis             TX   Public

            Picture of near quarter sized hail in
            Steiner Ranch shared on social media.

&&

MO