River Flood Warning 1, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
339 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

A strong shortwave trough will be in the process of moving through
south central Texas Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
This will keep rain chances limited to areas generally along and
east of I-35. With the stronger forcing expected to remain to our
east, the chance for locally heavy rainfall is also expected to
focus across southeast Texas. Most areas should remain dry on
Thursday as cloud cover gradually decreases from west to east. We
did opt to keep a low chance for convection in the coastal plains
Thursday morning, but this may need to be removed in subsequent
forecasts. Afternoon highs should peak in the lower 70s along the
Rio Grande to the upper 60s in the coastal plains and Highway 77
corridor. Another shortwave trough approaches from the west on
Friday and with medium range models showing the stronger lift mostly
north of our region, we will keep rain chances fairly low (20-30%)
and generally confined to the Hill Country eastward through the I-35
corridor and into the coastal plains. With the possibility of
another round late tonight into early Thursday, we have increased
rain chances over the coastal plains. There is also a low end risk
for some strong to severe thunderstorms today. An earlier cell over
Frio and Atascosa counties produced at least 1.5" diameter hail,
possibly larger. Any heating and southeast flow in the low-levels
will lend a low end chance for some large hail and damaging winds
today.

With the main shortwave trough eventually lifting northeast of the
region, it does appear rain chances will quickly decrease from west
to east during the daytime hours on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

On Friday, lee cyclogenesis will take place over the Texas
Panhandle, with a trailing cold front from Amarillo to Midland.
Meanwhile, at the 500mb level, a powerful vorticity maximum
associated with a deepening trough at the same level, will swing
through north Texas and Oklahoma, sending this front in our direction
by early Saturday morning. Before the front arrives, we will see one
more chance at some rain and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. There is an outside chance of a few strong to severe storms
ahead of the frontal passage Friday afternoon and evening, but it's a
highly conditional threat. While deep layer shear looks adequate,
instability will be virtually non-existent. If any sort of daytime
heating can result in increased instability ahead of the approaching
wave, then the threat for a few strong to severe storms is certainly
there. Morning fog development due to saturated soils from early week
rains will likely limit sunshine for the northern and eastern
portions of the region through early afternoon, which would obviously
limit instability. In any matter, medium range guidance is in
excellent agreement on the timing of the front, which will move
through shortly after midnight and be through the entire CWA by
sunrise Saturday.

The weekend looks nothing short of spectacular. This forecaster
still hasn't gotten around to getting their Christmas lights down
off the house, so if you haven't gotten around to it, this weekend
is the perfect opportunity to do so. Seasonally cool temperatures
with highs in the 60s both afternoons, along with cool mornings in
the 30s and 40s. Sunshine will not be hard to come by, as high
pressure at the surface works into the region by Sunday. That will
mean Monday morning may be quite cool, with temperatures in the 30s
for most. Next week looks like a rather benign weather pattern
compared to our recently active stretch since early January. We
should be near normal to slightly above normal each afternoon along
with cool, crisp mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024

Showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to move northeast
through the overnight period. LIFR ceilings will become widespread
with areas of fog, sometimes dense, seen across the entirety of
South Central Texas. DRT may miss out on any precipitation.
Visibility will range from MVFR to LIFR at times at I-35 sites. DRT
may see VFR conditions as early as 19Z tomorrow, while I-35 sites
will remain LIFR to IFR through the afternoon, with possible
improvement after 00-02Z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              60  48  68  49 /  60  30   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  61  48  68  48 /  60  40   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  50  70  49 /  70  40   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            59  46  67  48 /  50  30   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  46  72  51 /  30  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        58  47  66  48 /  60  30   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             66  47  71  49 /  50  30   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  48  69  48 /  70  40   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  52  66  50 /  90  50   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  50  70  50 /  70  40   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           66  51  71  51 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for Bandera-Bastrop-
Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Gillespie-Guadalupe-Hays-Kendall-
Kerr-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson.

Flood Watch until noon CST today for Bastrop-Caldwell-De Witt-
Fayette-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Wilson.

&&

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Platt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
550 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-251200-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
550 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Wednesday across
the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Medina County. Areas of
dense fog could lower visibilities to less than 1/4 mile.

A Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather exists through
today mainly for areas along and south of an Eagle Pass to San
Antonio to Giddings line. The main severe weather threats would
be strong winds and large hail.

There is a Marginal to Slight risk (Level 1 to 2 out of 4) for
heavy rainfall resulting in potential flooding through tonight
from the Interstate 35 corridor eastward through the Coastal
Plains. A Flood Watch is in effect until Noon Wednesday for areas
east of the Interstate 35 and Interstate 37 corridors.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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