Severe Thunderstorm Warning 310, NWS Kansas City, MO

012 
WWUS53 KEAX 102105
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
405 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

MOC001-197-102115-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0310.000000T0000Z-240710T2115Z/
Adair MO-Schuyler MO-
405 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ADAIR AND
SCHUYLER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central and northeastern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9235 4034 9277 4034 9268 4039 9269
      4039 9267 4041 9267 4043 9270 4046 9271
      4052 9267 4053 9270 4056 9268 4056 9271
      4059 9271 4059 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 278DEG 24KT 4048 9240 

$$

Pesel

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
  this afternoon into tonight. The strongest cells may produce
  strong to severe conditions with strong wind gusts being the
  primary threat.

- Another round of isolated thunderstorms is possible Thursday afternoon
  through the night. Severe weather is not expected at this
  time.

- Increasing heat and humidity expected late this week into
  early next week. Sunday and Monday are expected to be the
  worst days with heat indices exceeding triple digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

In the upper levels, there is troughing just to the northeast of the
area and ridging over western CONUS. At the surface, winds are out
of the west with a surface low to the east. Currently, a mid-level
shortwave is moving through the area and some scattered
thunderstorms have developed. While CAPE values range from 2,000-
3,500 J/kg for northern MO (highest values over northwestern MO),
bulk shear values are very weak. Strong gusty winds seem to be the
primary threat at this time. Some cells have already produced 57 mph
winds. Some hail up to quarter-size is also possible with the
strongest storms. A severe watch has been issued for northern MO
extending as far south as a line from Randolph to Doniphan (KS).
These storms are expected to impact the area through the evening and
move out a little after midnight.

Another shortwave moves through the flow which could lead to an
additional round of showers and thunderstorms for the area Thursday
afternoon/evening. CAPE values through the area range from 1,500-
2,000 J/kg and lapse rates around 7 degrees C/km suggest decent
instability. However, bulk shear values ranging from 20-30 knots
point to storms with shorter lifespans and being isolated to
scattered in nature. Confidence is fairly low in the severe threat
at this time.

On Friday, a surface low develops to the west of the area, and
shifts winds to the south. With warmer, more saturated air to south,
expect heat and humidity to increase. Heat indices for Friday are
expected to remain just shy of triple digits. Friday night, a
thermal ridge noses into the area along with an intensifying low-
level jet combining to further drive heat and humidity. This will
lead to warmer temperatures for the start of the weekend. This setup
continues through the weekend into the start of next week. Heat
indices for Sunday and Monday are expected range from 100-110
degrees F. We will closely monitor conditions to see if heat
headlines will be necessary. Hot and humid conditions are
anticipated to last through next Tuesday. Next Wednesday, looks to
be pleasant with high temperatures in the mid to high 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last through the day. There is a
potential for thunderstorms later tonight into overnight
Thursday. These storms are expected to move to the east of the
terminals by early Thursday morning. Winds will remain fairly
weak and variable throughout the TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
441 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-110945-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
441 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
225 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

MOZ017-025-102000-
Adair MO-Macon MO-
225 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR AND
NORTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 224 PM CDT, the public reported a strong thunderstorm near La
Plata, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
La Plata and Gibbs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3996 9252 4013 9242 4011 9235 3995 9235
      3995 9229 3985 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 295DEG 25KT 4002 9239

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

HFH/BP