Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
546 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers are forecast to develop late this
  afternoon into this evening along and behind a strong cold
  front with scattered thunderstorms to the east of the front. A
  few of these storms may become severe.

- There is a marginal or level 1 out of 5 risk of severe
  weather this afternoon into the early evening.

- A strong cold front will move across the region this evening
  with temperatures dropping from 75 degrees ahead of the front
  to 45 degrees behind the front.

- Rain chances will return Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

A stalled frontal boundary stretches from near Freeport to Iowa
City to Ottumwa to KLWD. North of the boundary winds were
northerly with winds out of the south creating convergence along
the front. Dewpoints along and south of the boundary have surged
into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area with
temperatures generally  in the upper 60s to the mid 70s farther
to the south. Satellite shows continued towering cumulus growth
near the frontal boundary.

Scattered thunderstorms have developed east of the frontal
boundary with scattered showers behind it. Expect scattered
showers to become widespread this evening as the low level jet
increases with upglide over the front.  A few thunderstorms
along and west of the boundary may become severe with large hail
the main threat but as the front moves away and the cooler air
moves the severe threat will come to an end. 0 to 6 km shear is
parallel to the front so storms will not move off of the
boundary. In the warm sector southeast of the front, expect
scattered thunderstorms into the early evening. A storm or two
may become severe with large hail the main threat. Storms near
the boundary will have an increase helicity to work with causing
them to spin resulting in a low tornado threat through early
this evening.

Rain will come to an end from northwest to southeast tonight
with the cold front exiting the area by midnight and the better
lift shifting to the east. Clouds are forecast to linger into
the morning but low temperatures will be noticeably cooler with
low temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in Buchanan County
to the mid 40s in northwest Illinois south of I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Wednesday: With the passage of the cold front cooler weather is
expected but still above normal for early March. We will be
between systems so dry for a couple of days. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 50s and lows in the 30s.

Thursday through Friday: A rather large/deep trough moves into the
central United States. Seems that the ECMWF has come around to the
GFS depicting a wetter/slower solution with widespread rain
expected, especially Thursday night and Friday. Rainfall amounts
look to be generally in the 1/2 to 1 inch range at most locations.
This pretty much matches the Day 4-5 WPC QPF amounts. NBM has
highs in the mid to upper 50s Thursday and upper 40s to mid 50s
on Friday.

This weekend: New data coming in shows the storm system pushing well
off to our east so we should be dry again. There is a shot of cooler
air in the wake of this system with h8 temps of -6C. Highs should
be in the mid 40s to lower 50s with lows bottoming out in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

The cold front has sagged to east of KMLI at 23z and is near
KBRL at 00 UTC. Scattered thunderstorms are near KBRL and will
be in the vicinity for the next couple of hours as the front
moves through. Expecting widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms to develop at all TAF sites through 06 UTC and
slowly exit the area from west to east after that. MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibilities are possible at all TAF sites where
precipitation occurs. Expect MVFR ceilings to continue through
the period with ceilings lifting after 18 UTC on Tuesday but
confidence on the exact timing is low at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Record High Temperatures:

March 4:
KBRL: 72/1992
KMLI: 71/1992

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins
CLIMATE...Speck/Uttech

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Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
809 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Nekoma                  41.17N 90.18W
03/04/2024                   Henry              IL   Emergency Mngr

            4 to 5 inch tree limbs down. Also, dime size
            hail.

&&

RP Kinney

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