Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
546 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain showers are forecast to develop late this
  afternoon into this evening along and behind a strong cold
  front with scattered thunderstorms to the east of the front. A
  few of these storms may become severe.

- There is a marginal or level 1 out of 5 risk of severe
  weather this afternoon into the early evening.

- A strong cold front will move across the region this evening
  with temperatures dropping from 75 degrees ahead of the front
  to 45 degrees behind the front.

- Rain chances will return Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

A stalled frontal boundary stretches from near Freeport to Iowa
City to Ottumwa to KLWD. North of the boundary winds were
northerly with winds out of the south creating convergence along
the front. Dewpoints along and south of the boundary have surged
into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area with
temperatures generally  in the upper 60s to the mid 70s farther
to the south. Satellite shows continued towering cumulus growth
near the frontal boundary.

Scattered thunderstorms have developed east of the frontal
boundary with scattered showers behind it. Expect scattered
showers to become widespread this evening as the low level jet
increases with upglide over the front.  A few thunderstorms
along and west of the boundary may become severe with large hail
the main threat but as the front moves away and the cooler air
moves the severe threat will come to an end. 0 to 6 km shear is
parallel to the front so storms will not move off of the
boundary. In the warm sector southeast of the front, expect
scattered thunderstorms into the early evening. A storm or two
may become severe with large hail the main threat. Storms near
the boundary will have an increase helicity to work with causing
them to spin resulting in a low tornado threat through early
this evening.

Rain will come to an end from northwest to southeast tonight
with the cold front exiting the area by midnight and the better
lift shifting to the east. Clouds are forecast to linger into
the morning but low temperatures will be noticeably cooler with
low temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in Buchanan County
to the mid 40s in northwest Illinois south of I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Wednesday: With the passage of the cold front cooler weather is
expected but still above normal for early March. We will be
between systems so dry for a couple of days. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 50s and lows in the 30s.

Thursday through Friday: A rather large/deep trough moves into the
central United States. Seems that the ECMWF has come around to the
GFS depicting a wetter/slower solution with widespread rain
expected, especially Thursday night and Friday. Rainfall amounts
look to be generally in the 1/2 to 1 inch range at most locations.
This pretty much matches the Day 4-5 WPC QPF amounts. NBM has
highs in the mid to upper 50s Thursday and upper 40s to mid 50s
on Friday.

This weekend: New data coming in shows the storm system pushing well
off to our east so we should be dry again. There is a shot of cooler
air in the wake of this system with h8 temps of -6C. Highs should
be in the mid 40s to lower 50s with lows bottoming out in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

The cold front has sagged to east of KMLI at 23z and is near
KBRL at 00 UTC. Scattered thunderstorms are near KBRL and will
be in the vicinity for the next couple of hours as the front
moves through. Expecting widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms to develop at all TAF sites through 06 UTC and
slowly exit the area from west to east after that. MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibilities are possible at all TAF sites where
precipitation occurs. Expect MVFR ceilings to continue through
the period with ceilings lifting after 18 UTC on Tuesday but
confidence on the exact timing is low at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Record High Temperatures:

March 4:
KBRL: 72/1992
KMLI: 71/1992

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins
CLIMATE...Speck/Uttech

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
313 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-052115-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
313 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms will continue into this evening ahead of
a strong cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal
risk for severe storms (level 1 of 5) across much of the outlook
area. The main risks are hail up to quarter size and strong gusty
winds of 50 to 60 mph. An isolated tornado or two is possible if a
discrete storm can develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed into the early evening hours in
far southeast Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Towards the northeast at around 40 MPH

DC

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
722 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Hail             1 W Fort Madison        40.62N 91.37W
03/04/2024  E0.50 inch       Lee                IA   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

RP Kinney

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
729 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     Hail             1 N Fort Madison        40.63N 91.35W
03/04/2024  M1.00 inch       Lee                IA   Public

            Largest stones were quarter size. Picture
            from social media.

&&

RP Kinney

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
733 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     Hail             Lanark                  42.11N 89.83W
03/04/2024  E1.00 inch       Carroll            IL   Public

&&

ARG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
737 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

IAZ054-ILZ001-050230-
Jo Daviess IL-Jackson IA-
737 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Jo Daviess
and central Jackson Counties through 830 PM CST
...

At 737 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Andrew, or 11 miles northeast of Maquoketa, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could cause minor tree limb damage and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bellevue, Hanover, Elizabeth, Woodbine, Andrew, Scales Mound, La
Motte, Springbrook, Schapville, Guilford, Rice, Otter Creek, Whitton,
North Hanover, Elizabeth Fairgrounds, Aiken, Bellevue State Park,
Galena Territory, Apple Canyon Lake, and Spruce Creek Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4230 8999 4212 9059 4224 9072 4251 9020
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 238DEG 35KT 4221 9058

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Gibbs