Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY
619 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect area-wide today until 8 PM for
  peak heat indices between 100 to 100 degrees.

- Today's severe thunderstorm outlook has been upgraded to a
  Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) for the northern two-thirds of
  the forecast area. The Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) remains
  to the south. Significant damaging winds are the primary
  hazard; several tornadoes are also possible.

- A Flood Watch as been issued for counties east and northeast
  of the Quad Cities. Recent heavy rainfall has saturated the
  ground, making this area more susceptible to flash flooding.
  Rainfall rates could peak between 2 - 2.5" per hour.

- Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi
  River with most sites crested. The Rock River is now expected
  to see flooding due to the heavy rains upstream in the past 24
  hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

There is a Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) for severe weather this
afternoon into tonight for much of the outlook area, with an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) across the south. Please monitor
the weather closely and heed any warnings issued for your
location!

SPC mesoanalysis early this afternoon showed a mid-level
vorticity max across E South Dakota/SW Minnesota/NW Iowa,
positioned to the south of a 80 kt 300mb jet over northern
Minnesota and Wisconsin. A zone of low-level moisture
convergence was noted (where surface dewpoints were between 75
to 80 degrees!), stretching from central Iowa to the Quad
Cities and into central Illinois.

As large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level impulse
overspreads the area late this afternoon/evening, this quasi-
stationary zone of low- level convergence may aid in focusing
the convective initiation. With extreme instability in place
(3500 - 4500 J/kg MLCAPE), anticipate explosive convective
development and rapid upscale growth into one, or possible a
few, bowing line segments. Forward-propagating Corfidi vectors
and W to SE sloping theta-e and 1000-500mb thickness contours
should help in eventually guiding the MCS to the ESE or SE later
into the evening. CAMs have been consistent on showing
significant severe wind gusts in the strongest bowing segments
and the HREF max wind gust output shows several corridors with
values of 60-70+ kts. Greatest uncertainty is on the exact
placement/track of the dominant surging MCS, with a northern
scenario focused across the NE forecast area (NW Illinois) and
another camp further south which would bring significant winds
to a larger portion of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois.

To reiterate, today is a favorable setup for a higher end wind
event (scattered 75+ mph gusts) due to a very unstable air mass,
sufficient deep layer shear, steep mid-level lapse rates near 8
C/km, and theta-e index values near 35. A few tornadoes are
possible in association with any surging storm segments as 0-3
km shear of 30+ kts supports development of mesovortices.

There is also potential for very heavy rainfall with PWATs near
2". There could be a zone of training convection that leads to
heavy rainfall totals of 2-4"+. WPC has a Slight Risk for flash
flooding across the outlook area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Cooler and less humid air will move into the region behind a
cold front by Tuesday and last through the end of the week.
Overnight lows in the 50s are forecast on several nights, giving
our air conditioning a bit of a break.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Convection will pose a significant hazard to operations through
the next few hours. Measured wind gusts at ground level of 70-80
kts have been reported in the last hour. This system will likely
approach the KMLI-KDVN-KCLI corridor at similiar intensity and
may produce winds over 50 kt as far south as KBRL. Ceilings and
visibility will drop to near IFR and heavy thunderstorms and
gusty winds may persist for around an hour before moving to the
southeast. Areas of heavy rain may aid in fog formation in the
early morning hours Tuesday with drier west winds and VFR
conditions forecast for the daytime hours Tuesday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Ervin/Uttech
AVIATION...JGG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
345 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-162045-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
345 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate risk, level 4 of 5, for
this afternoon and evening for much of eastern Iowa and northwest
Illinois. Very damaging winds to 85 mph, very large hail and a
few tornadoes are likely. Torrential rain producing flash
flooding is also possible. There is a flash flood watch for much
of northwest Illinois through tonight.

There is an Enhanced risk, level 3 of 5, for southeast Iowa,
northeast Missouri, and western Illinois.

Supercell thunderstorms with tornadoes and very large hail would
initially be most likely in areas north of Interstate 80 this
afternoon and early evening, followed by a damaging wind producing
line of storms, moving from west to east towards early evening.
Late in the evening, storms will become widespread and sink
southward, and heavy rain will become the primary threat.

Hot and humid conditions will be over the area through early this
evening, with heat index readings topping between 100 and 110
degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through tonight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Toward the east around 30 mph this afternoon then southeast 45 to
60 mph this evening.

Haase

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
630 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 W Paralta             42.05N 91.49W
07/15/2024  M67 MPH          Linn               IA   Public

&&

GROSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
636 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Rickardsville           42.58N 90.88W
07/15/2024                   Dubuque            IA   Trained Spotter

            4-6 inch tree limbs down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
638 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Robins            42.09N 91.66W
07/15/2024                   Linn               IA   Public

            1 foot diameter tree branch down, time
            estimated from radar.

&&

GROSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
645 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 N South English       41.46N 92.09W
07/15/2024  E60 MPH          Keokuk             IA   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
646 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Elizabeth               42.32N 90.22W
07/15/2024  E60 MPH          Jo Daviess         IL   Public

            Estimated winds of 60 mph at the leading
            edge of the line, with low visibility.

&&

TJG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
647 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNE Cedar Rapids      42.01N 91.66W
07/15/2024                   Linn               IA   Trained Spotter

            Small tree down along with several tree
            branches. Time estimated from radar.

&&

GROSS