Tornado Warning 50, NWS Des Moines, IA

163 
WWUS53 KDMX 212206 RRA
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
506 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAC007-117-135-185-212245-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-240521T2245Z/
Lucas IA-Monroe IA-Wayne IA-Appanoose IA-
506 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LUCAS...SOUTHWESTERN MONROE...WAYNE AND NORTHWESTERN
APPANOOSE COUNTIES...

At 506 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Allerton, or near Corydon, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Corydon around 510 PM CDT.
  Millerton around 515 PM CDT.
  Rathbun Lake around 520 PM CDT.
  Melrose around 530 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Russell, Melrose, Red Haw Lake State Park, Honey Creek State Park,
Millerton, Allerton, Promise City, Clio, Plano, and Seymour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 9285 4058 9328 4058 9349 4073 9349
      4106 9323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 220DEG 47KT 4072 9336 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Curtis

296 
WWUS53 KDMX 212230
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
530 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAC007-117-212239-
/O.CAN.KDMX.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-240521T2245Z/
Lucas IA-Appanoose IA-
530 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LUCAS AND NORTHWESTERN
APPANOOSE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for south central
Iowa.

LAT...LON 4090 9311 4090 9310 4100 9310 4100 9309
      4090 9285 4090 9287 4089 9310 4086 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 220DEG 47KT 4096 9310 

$$

IAC135-185-212245-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-240521T2245Z/
Monroe IA-Wayne IA-
530 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 529 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Melrose, or 11 miles east of Chariton, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Melrose around 535 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Melrose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 9311 4090 9310 4100 9310 4100 9309
      4090 9285 4090 9287 4089 9310 4086 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 220DEG 47KT 4096 9310 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

Curtis

663 
WWUS53 KDMX 212230 RRA
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
530 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAC185-212240-
/O.CAN.KDMX.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-240521T2245Z/
Wayne IA-
530 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for south central
Iowa.

LAT...LON 4100 9310 4100 9309 4090 9285 4090 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 220DEG 47KT 4098 9308 

$$

IAC135-212245-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-240521T2245Z/
Monroe IA-
530 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY...

At 530 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Melrose, or 12 miles east of Chariton, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Monroe County, including the following locations...
Melrose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 9310 4100 9309 4090 9285 4090 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 220DEG 47KT 4098 9308 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

Curtis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
142 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Take action for ALL weather warnings this afternoon with
  tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail all possible
- Renewed or prolonged flooding possible with rain that falls
  this afternoon with rivers rising

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Already one round of heavy rainfall moved through the state last
night with 3 to 5 inches of rainfall in some areas with isolated
higher amounts that led to flash flooding. Severe storms also moved
over southern and parts of central Iowa in the morning hours. As a
shortwave trough lifts northeastward and negatively tilts this
afternoon, latest Warn on Forecast System (WoFS) is showing
good airmass recovery with dewpoints rising 5 or so degrees
ahead of a surface triple point. Low level kinematics are
already strong and mid-levels are increasing as well. As the
airmass recovers, WoFS shows strong instability with MLCAPE
growing above 1500 J/kg and very favorable 0-500m and 0-1km SRH
ahead of it as well. Hodographs show a bit more linear
depiction, but initially they may be able to remain curved in
the low levels. Therefore, concern and confidence remain high of
rotating storms capable of tornadoes, including a few strong
given the Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch issued
earlier, damaging wind gusts including the potential of a few
intense wind gusts (greater than 75 mph), and large hail larger
than golf ball size. The hail size can be greater with rotating
storms as hailstones recycle in the updraft. Rainfall with
these storms of 1 to 2 inches will be possible and could cause
new flash flooding or prolong or renew flooding with rivers
rising as well from the recent and future rainfall. Storms will
move quickly through our area this afternoon and be largely east
of a Waterloo to Ottumwa line by around 7pm

As we move into this evening, we will enter a several day period of
drier conditions, which will be welcome for saturated soils and
swollen streams. While river flooding will be peaking mid to
late this week, no substantial rainfall is forecast until
Thursday night into Friday. This is when the next shortwave
trough will approach and pass north of the region and bring
thunderstorms through the state. The timing may mitigate a wider
severe risk, but instability and shear may be sufficient for a
few strong to severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Main concern is severe thunderstorms that may have large hail
and damaging wind gusts this afternoon. TEMPO lines are for best
timing of storms with impacts that may need more limited as the
storms move through than currently shown. Winds are gusty from
the southeast early this afternoon, but will stay gusty as they
become from the northwest behind the storms. A return to VFR
conditions is forecast into tonight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-015>017-
023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>083-092.

&&

DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
215 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-221915-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
215 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa,
north central Iowa, northeast Iowa, northwest Iowa, south central
Iowa, southeast Iowa, southwest Iowa, and west central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A cold front that will be moving eastward across the state of Iowa
to generate a line of strong-severe storms during the afternoon
and evening hours with tornadoes, damaging winds, flash flooding,
and large hail all possible with the strongest storms. The worst
of the storms will be primarily during the 3 pm to 9 pm timeframe.
Winds could gust over 40 mph at times this evening as the storms
move off to the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Additional thunderstorm chances return at times Friday and
through the weekend. The severe weather potential for these days
will be better determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
421 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     Hail             Dana                    42.11N 94.24W
05/21/2024  M0.75 Inch       Greene             IA   Public

            Report from mPING Penny sized hail.

&&

JC/CH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
429 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     Hail             1 S Murray              41.03N 93.95W
05/21/2024  M0.75 Inch       Clarke             IA   Public

            Report from mPING: penny size hail.

&&

JC/CH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
435 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Blairsburg              42.48N 93.64W
05/21/2024                   Hamilton           IA   Emergency Mngr

            Very strong winds and power outage reported.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
440 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Webster City        42.47N 93.84W
05/21/2024                   Hamilton           IA   Broadcast Media

            Power outage and limbs down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
442 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Tornado          2 SE Polk City          41.75N 93.69W
05/21/2024                   Polk               IA   Law Enforcement

            rain wrapped.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
451 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Des Moines         41.60N 93.64W
05/21/2024                   Polk               IA   Emergency Mngr

            Broken branches and some down trees.

&&

JT