Tornado Warning 38, NWS Des Moines, IA

037 
WWUS53 KDMX 212017
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
317 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAC009-029-073-077-212100-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-240521T2100Z/
Greene IA-Cass IA-Guthrie IA-Audubon IA-
317 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL GREENE...NORTH CENTRAL CASS...NORTHWESTERN GUTHRIE AND
SOUTHEASTERN AUDUBON COUNTIES...

At 316 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Exira, or 11
miles south of Audubon, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Exira around 320 PM CDT.
  Guthrie Center around 355 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Yale,
Brayton, Exira, Springbrook State Park, Bayard, and Bagley.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 63 and 67.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 9487 4160 9497 4195 9450 4172 9430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 232DEG 23KT 4156 9485 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Donavon

854 
WWUS53 KDMX 212028
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
328 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAC029-212038-
/O.CAN.KDMX.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-240521T2100Z/
Cass IA-
328 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CASS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for west central
Iowa.

LAT...LON 4164 9477 4171 9482 4195 9450 4180 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 221DEG 58KT 4176 9471 

$$

IAC009-073-077-212100-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-240521T2100Z/
Greene IA-Guthrie IA-Audubon IA-
328 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL GREENE...NORTHWESTERN GUTHRIE AND EAST CENTRAL AUDUBON
COUNTIES...

At 328 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles south of Coon
Rapids, or 11 miles east of Audubon, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  Bayard around 335 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Springbrook State Park, Bayard, and Bagley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 9477 4171 9482 4195 9450 4180 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 221DEG 58KT 4176 9471 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Donavon

731 
WWUS53 KDMX 212035
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
335 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAC009-073-077-212045-
/O.CAN.KDMX.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-240521T2100Z/
Greene IA-Guthrie IA-Audubon IA-
335 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GREENE...NORTHWESTERN
GUTHRIE AND EAST CENTRAL AUDUBON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for west central
Iowa.

LAT...LON 4164 9477 4171 9482 4195 9450 4180 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 228DEG 44KT 4182 9462 

$$

Donavon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
142 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Take action for ALL weather warnings this afternoon with
  tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail all possible
- Renewed or prolonged flooding possible with rain that falls
  this afternoon with rivers rising

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Already one round of heavy rainfall moved through the state last
night with 3 to 5 inches of rainfall in some areas with isolated
higher amounts that led to flash flooding. Severe storms also moved
over southern and parts of central Iowa in the morning hours. As a
shortwave trough lifts northeastward and negatively tilts this
afternoon, latest Warn on Forecast System (WoFS) is showing
good airmass recovery with dewpoints rising 5 or so degrees
ahead of a surface triple point. Low level kinematics are
already strong and mid-levels are increasing as well. As the
airmass recovers, WoFS shows strong instability with MLCAPE
growing above 1500 J/kg and very favorable 0-500m and 0-1km SRH
ahead of it as well. Hodographs show a bit more linear
depiction, but initially they may be able to remain curved in
the low levels. Therefore, concern and confidence remain high of
rotating storms capable of tornadoes, including a few strong
given the Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch issued
earlier, damaging wind gusts including the potential of a few
intense wind gusts (greater than 75 mph), and large hail larger
than golf ball size. The hail size can be greater with rotating
storms as hailstones recycle in the updraft. Rainfall with
these storms of 1 to 2 inches will be possible and could cause
new flash flooding or prolong or renew flooding with rivers
rising as well from the recent and future rainfall. Storms will
move quickly through our area this afternoon and be largely east
of a Waterloo to Ottumwa line by around 7pm

As we move into this evening, we will enter a several day period of
drier conditions, which will be welcome for saturated soils and
swollen streams. While river flooding will be peaking mid to
late this week, no substantial rainfall is forecast until
Thursday night into Friday. This is when the next shortwave
trough will approach and pass north of the region and bring
thunderstorms through the state. The timing may mitigate a wider
severe risk, but instability and shear may be sufficient for a
few strong to severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Main concern is severe thunderstorms that may have large hail
and damaging wind gusts this afternoon. TEMPO lines are for best
timing of storms with impacts that may need more limited as the
storms move through than currently shown. Winds are gusty from
the southeast early this afternoon, but will stay gusty as they
become from the northwest behind the storms. A return to VFR
conditions is forecast into tonight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-015>017-
023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>083-092.

&&

DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Ansorge

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
215 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-221915-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
215 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa,
north central Iowa, northeast Iowa, northwest Iowa, south central
Iowa, southeast Iowa, southwest Iowa, and west central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A cold front that will be moving eastward across the state of Iowa
to generate a line of strong-severe storms during the afternoon
and evening hours with tornadoes, damaging winds, flash flooding,
and large hail all possible with the strongest storms. The worst
of the storms will be primarily during the 3 pm to 9 pm timeframe.
Winds could gust over 40 mph at times this evening as the storms
move off to the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Additional thunderstorm chances return at times Friday and
through the weekend. The severe weather potential for these days
will be better determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
230 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     Flood            4 N Brooklyn            41.79N 92.45W
05/21/2024                   Poweshiek          IA   Emergency Mngr

            Approximately 10 secondary road closures due
            to water over the road primarily across
            northern parts of the county?.

&&

JAZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
242 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Schaller                42.50N 95.29W
05/21/2024                   Sac                IA   Public

            Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken;
            Shingles blown off.

&&

AB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
252 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     Flood            3 NW Dunkerton          42.60N 92.20W
05/21/2024                   Black Hawk         IA   Public

            Report from mPING of River/Creek
            overflowing. Cropland/Yard/Basement
            Flooding.

&&

AB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
307 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Clive              41.58N 93.80W
05/21/2024                   Dallas             IA   Public

            Large tree limb down. Time estimated from
            nearly KDSM wind gust observation.

&&

MP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
312 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     Tornado          Corning                 40.99N 94.73W
05/21/2024                   Adams              IA   Trained Spotter

&&

JC/CH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
313 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     Hail             4 S Cumberland          41.22N 94.86W
05/21/2024  M1.00 Inch       Cass               IA   Trained Spotter

&&

MP