Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Dodge City, KS

320 
WWUS53 KDDC 062127
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
427 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSC047-097-062137-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-240506T2200Z/
Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
427 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KIOWA AND
SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 9887 3775 9897 3789 9895 3806 9880
      3789 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 220DEG 38KT 3776 9891 

$$

KSC151-185-062200-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-240506T2200Z/
Stafford KS-Pratt KS-
427 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN STAFFORD AND NORTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTIES...

At 427 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Byers, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe storm will be near...
  Byers around 430 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include St.
John and Stafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 9887 3775 9897 3789 9895 3806 9880
      3789 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 220DEG 38KT 3776 9891 

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

KBJ

184 
WWUS53 KDDC 062139
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
439 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSC151-185-062200-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-240506T2200Z/
Stafford KS-Pratt KS-
439 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD AND NORTH CENTRAL PRATT COUNTIES...

At 439 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Byers, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
  St. John.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 9883 3796 9887 3803 9875 3789 9847
      3781 9860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 220DEG 38KT 3786 9880 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

KBJ

023 
WWUS53 KDDC 062143
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
443 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSC151-185-062200-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-240506T2200Z/
Stafford KS-Pratt KS-
443 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD AND NORTH CENTRAL PRATT COUNTIES...

At 443 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of St.
John, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
St. John and Stafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 9880 3798 9883 3803 9875 3789 9847
      3781 9860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 220DEG 38KT 3790 9876 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

KBJ

783 
WWUS53 KDDC 062152
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
452 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSC151-185-062202-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-240506T2200Z/
Stafford KS-Pratt KS-
452 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD AND
NORTH CENTRAL PRATT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, small
hail is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
eastern Pratt and Stafford counties.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 9880 3798 9883 3803 9875 3789 9847
      3781 9860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 220DEG 38KT 3797 9869 

$$

KBJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
331 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms expected east of Highway 283 this
afternoon into the evening hours.

- Hail around 2 inches and winds over 70 mph will be the main
concern with the highest tornado threat across south central Kansas

- Critical Fire weather conditions are expected west of highway 283
this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon

- A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and
persist for several days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Mesoscale Update...

Storms that formed along the dry line earlier this afternoon are
struggling to rotate and maintain themselves. This may be the
result of a backing wind profile at mid levels that causes an
unfavorable hodograph. The shear profile improves to the
southeast, especially along the Oklahoma state line in Barber
county where there is less mid level backing. The storms over
south central Kansas between 3 and 6 pm will have stronger 0-1
km SRH up to 150-200 m2/s2, which would be favorable for
tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Strong to severe storms are expected late this afternoon into this
evening as a strong storm system moves through the area. A dryline
has set up across western Kansas with a cold front overtaking this
feature this afternoon.  Dewpoints ahead of these features will be
above 60F with south southeast winds funneling in increased
moisture. Cape values above 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear above 30
knots will support any storm that forms to quickly become severe.
Hail around 2 inches and winds over 70 mph will be the main concern.
A line of storms have already developed across our northern zones
and should make it out of the area within the next few hours. Storms
farther south will develop by 21Z generally east of Highway 283. Low
level Helicity will be the highest across south central Kansas late
this afternoon into this evening. This is where the highest chance
of a tornado to form. Storms will then trek northeast and into
central Kansas by early this evening and move out of the DDC.  In
addition to the storms, low RH and strong westerly winds will be
felt behind the dryline. A Red Flag is in effect to account of this
increase in fire danger. Skies become mostly clear as the storms
move out of the area and continue into tomorrow.  A few mid level
clouds are expected tomorrow afternoon into the first part of
tomorrow night before becoming mostly clear by sunrise Wednesday.
Breezy westerly winds are expected through tomorrow, shifting to
more of a northerly direction tomorrow night.  Low RHs are also
expected tomorrow afternoon west of Highway 283.  Currently a Fire
Weather Watch is issued west of this area and will probably be
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning after this initial warning is
expired. As for temperatures, lows tonight will dip into the mid
40s.  Above normal temperatures are expected tomorrow due to the
downslope winds with highs ranging from the mid 70s across our
northern zones with around 80 to low 80s elsewhere. Lows tomorrow
night look to range from around 40 degrees across far western Kansas
to low 50s across south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A quiet pattern emerges in the long term forecast.  Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions are expected through the work week with
light northerly winds.  There may be a weak disturbance that moves
through the area this weekend.  But as of now, no precipitation is
depicted by the NBM. Highs throughout the long term will generally
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s through Friday then upper 70s to low
80s this weekend. Lows will generally be in the 40s with a few low
50s possible across south central Kansas by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Southeasterly moist upslope surface winds This Morning will
maintain a stratus deck firmly in the IFR category as far east
as Garden City, and perhaps Liberal. Most guidance does indicate
visibility is leaning to remain above the LIFR category, but if
visibility were to drop to one half mile or less – still the
favored area would be the DDC terminal between 10 and 13z, as
the NBM forecasts mean visibility less than one half mile over
south central Kansas. The ceilings will give way to a dryline in
the mid morning hours, which could become the focus for numerous
severe thunderstorms as early as the 15 and 18z timeframe
anywhere form GCK to HYS, and spreading east in a broken line
through mid afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Widespread red flag meteorological conditions are expected each
of the next 2 days across the western half of the area. The
area hasn’t been cleared of dry fuels for the season, however
there may be some variability in the greenness withing the
highlighted region. The red flag warning was expanded for all
areas along the highway 23 corridor This Afternoon, with a areal
matching Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday. Areas along the
highway 283 corridor and eastward are considered too green to
continue warnings for the time being.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
350 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 /250 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An outbreak of significant severe weather is forecast Today
across much of southwest and central Kansas. The greatest risk
will be along and east of the Highway 283 corridor from early
afternoon through the early evening hours. All severe weather
types can be expected, including the possibility of strong, long-
lived tornadoes.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas west of Highway 83 for
This afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A Fire Weather Watch in effect for areas west of highway 23
Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed as early as noon across the
northern counties, and by early to mid afternoon over the south
central Kansas counties.

99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
334 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     Hail             5 NW Coldwater          37.31N 99.40W
05/06/2024  M1.75 Inch       Comanche           KS   Trained Spotter

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
334 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ031-062100-
Ellis KS-
334 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 334 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Emmeram, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Ellis
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 9904 3894 9921 3906 9939 3913 9933
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 219DEG 41KT 3906 9924

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KBJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
337 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     Hail             Larned                  38.18N 99.10W
05/06/2024  M1.75 Inch       Pawnee             KS   Public

            Report from social media with pictures.

&&

RCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
401 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ066-079>081-062130-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
401 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN KIOWA...
SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD...NORTHWESTERN PRATT AND SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Haviland, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Haviland and Wellsford around 405 PM CDT.
  Byers and Hopewell around 420 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 9913 3759 9925 3790 9901 3774 9875
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 217DEG 41KT 3759 9913

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KBJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
404 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ080-089-090-062130-
Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
404 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA...WEST
CENTRAL BARBER AND NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
CDT...

At 404 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coldwater, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wilmore around 410 PM CDT.
  Belvidere around 420 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3715 9924 3724 9936 3751 9913 3735 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 220DEG 38KT 3725 9926

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KBJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
416 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     Hail             1 ENE Wellsford         37.62N 99.00W
05/06/2024  M1.00 Inch       Pratt              KS   Trained Spotter

&&

GT