Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
331 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms expected east of Highway 283 this
afternoon into the evening hours.

- Hail around 2 inches and winds over 70 mph will be the main
concern with the highest tornado threat across south central Kansas

- Critical Fire weather conditions are expected west of highway 283
this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon

- A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and
persist for several days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Mesoscale Update...

Storms that formed along the dry line earlier this afternoon are
struggling to rotate and maintain themselves. This may be the
result of a backing wind profile at mid levels that causes an
unfavorable hodograph. The shear profile improves to the
southeast, especially along the Oklahoma state line in Barber
county where there is less mid level backing. The storms over
south central Kansas between 3 and 6 pm will have stronger 0-1
km SRH up to 150-200 m2/s2, which would be favorable for
tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Strong to severe storms are expected late this afternoon into this
evening as a strong storm system moves through the area. A dryline
has set up across western Kansas with a cold front overtaking this
feature this afternoon.  Dewpoints ahead of these features will be
above 60F with south southeast winds funneling in increased
moisture. Cape values above 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear above 30
knots will support any storm that forms to quickly become severe.
Hail around 2 inches and winds over 70 mph will be the main concern.
A line of storms have already developed across our northern zones
and should make it out of the area within the next few hours. Storms
farther south will develop by 21Z generally east of Highway 283. Low
level Helicity will be the highest across south central Kansas late
this afternoon into this evening. This is where the highest chance
of a tornado to form. Storms will then trek northeast and into
central Kansas by early this evening and move out of the DDC.  In
addition to the storms, low RH and strong westerly winds will be
felt behind the dryline. A Red Flag is in effect to account of this
increase in fire danger. Skies become mostly clear as the storms
move out of the area and continue into tomorrow.  A few mid level
clouds are expected tomorrow afternoon into the first part of
tomorrow night before becoming mostly clear by sunrise Wednesday.
Breezy westerly winds are expected through tomorrow, shifting to
more of a northerly direction tomorrow night.  Low RHs are also
expected tomorrow afternoon west of Highway 283.  Currently a Fire
Weather Watch is issued west of this area and will probably be
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning after this initial warning is
expired. As for temperatures, lows tonight will dip into the mid
40s.  Above normal temperatures are expected tomorrow due to the
downslope winds with highs ranging from the mid 70s across our
northern zones with around 80 to low 80s elsewhere. Lows tomorrow
night look to range from around 40 degrees across far western Kansas
to low 50s across south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

A quiet pattern emerges in the long term forecast.  Mostly clear
skies and dry conditions are expected through the work week with
light northerly winds.  There may be a weak disturbance that moves
through the area this weekend.  But as of now, no precipitation is
depicted by the NBM. Highs throughout the long term will generally
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s through Friday then upper 70s to low
80s this weekend. Lows will generally be in the 40s with a few low
50s possible across south central Kansas by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 450 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Southeasterly moist upslope surface winds This Morning will
maintain a stratus deck firmly in the IFR category as far east
as Garden City, and perhaps Liberal. Most guidance does indicate
visibility is leaning to remain above the LIFR category, but if
visibility were to drop to one half mile or less – still the
favored area would be the DDC terminal between 10 and 13z, as
the NBM forecasts mean visibility less than one half mile over
south central Kansas. The ceilings will give way to a dryline in
the mid morning hours, which could become the focus for numerous
severe thunderstorms as early as the 15 and 18z timeframe
anywhere form GCK to HYS, and spreading east in a broken line
through mid afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Widespread red flag meteorological conditions are expected each
of the next 2 days across the western half of the area. The
area hasn’t been cleared of dry fuels for the season, however
there may be some variability in the greenness withing the
highlighted region. The red flag warning was expanded for all
areas along the highway 23 corridor This Afternoon, with a areal
matching Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday. Areas along the
highway 283 corridor and eastward are considered too green to
continue warnings for the time being.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
350 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 /250 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An outbreak of significant severe weather is forecast Today
across much of southwest and central Kansas. The greatest risk
will be along and east of the Highway 283 corridor from early
afternoon through the early evening hours. All severe weather
types can be expected, including the possibility of strong, long-
lived tornadoes.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas west of Highway 83 for
This afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A Fire Weather Watch in effect for areas west of highway 23
Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed as early as noon across the
northern counties, and by early to mid afternoon over the south
central Kansas counties.

99

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
305 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ031-062030-
Ellis KS-
305 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 305 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Yocemento, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hays and Yocemento around 310 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9904 3873 9948 3899 9947 3913 9939
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 212DEG 49KT 3886 9942

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KBJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
316 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ080-089-062045-
Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
316 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL KIOWA AND NORTHWESTERN
COMANCHE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Coldwater, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Greensburg around 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9937 3736 9951 3773 9930 3760 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 210DEG 45KT 3742 9940

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KBJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
318 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ080-089-062045-
Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
318 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA AND
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Protection, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Coldwater around 325 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 9954 3721 9955 3751 9934 3738 9906
      3711 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 221DEG 46KT 3722 9949

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KBJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
319 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ065-079-062045-
Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
319 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL PAWNEE AND CENTRAL
EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Lewis, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Zook around 335 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 9927 3792 9938 3815 9924 3801 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 217DEG 31KT 3795 9926

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SPRINGER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
321 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Hail             Larned                  38.19N 99.10W
05/06/2024  E1.00 Inch       Pawnee             KS   Public

            social media photo of hail.

&&

GT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
326 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     Hail             4 ESE Offerle           37.86N 99.49W
05/06/2024  M1.75 Inch       Edwards            KS   Public

            Report received from social media.

&&

RCB