Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
315 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring a severe weather
threat to central Pennsylvania through this evening, along with
a flash flood threat lasting through late tonight. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and Thursday
before more heavy rain and potential flooding associated with
the moisture remnants of Debby impact the region Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
...19Z Update...
Flash Flood Watch now in effect for far eastern portions of the
Lower Susq River Valley where combination of initial slow moving
convection at mid afternoon, plus additional rainfall from
thunderstorms approaching from central PA later this afternoon
and evening, will produce an elevated threat for flash flooding.
portions of Lancaster and York Counties' 1 hr FFG guidance is
less than 2", and consensus is that areas receiving more than
2-2.5" in 1-3 hours will experience flash flooding within the
Watch area.

SVR Watch #605 is also in effect until 00Z Wed. Storms
continue to track across western and central PA, with reports of
wind damage across Clearfield County from recent storms.

The right entrance region of an upper level jet will shift over
PA late today into tonight creating enhanced meso-B uvvel over
the stalled frontal boundary across central PA. SPC upgraded a
corridor of central PA to ENH for this afternoon, surrounded by
SLGT for much of central PA. WPC also has a SLGT to MDT risk of
excessive rainfall across the Susq Valley and points east as
the front and upper level feature combine their forcing around
and shortly after the optimal time of peak heating/max
instability.

Expect storms to face later this evening, with CAMs showing wide
disparity in convection after midnight, largely dependent upon
the location of the front by late tonight. We opted to keep the
Flood Watch in effect until 08z, which can be extended if need
by overnight, or cancelled early if the threat subsides by then.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
It appears that the locally heavy rainfall threat continues
along or just east of the Lower Susq River Valley Wednesday
morning, but uncertainty in the frontal location will ultimately
determine where additional rainfall is maintained early
Wednesday morning.

The front slips just south of PA Wednesday with decreasing
showers throughout Wednesday morning. A weak wave of low
pressure riding along this boundary will likely result in
lingering cloud cover and the chance of showers over the
southern half of the state. Can't even rule out a tsra near the
Mason Dixon Line, where models show a bit of elevated CAPE. GEFS
2m temp anomalies indicate max temps will likely be 5-10
degrees below average Wed due to the cloud cover and easterly
flow.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will once again be with us on
Thursday as we evaluate the heavy rain potential for the area
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main story for Friday into Saturday will be the potential for
heavy rain.

After that looking at mainly dry days, as a weak high builds
into the area. With the upper level trough nearby, daytime
heating will likely result in a daily build up of CU and
perhaps a shower.

Still uncertainty with the track of Debby to nail down exact
details of QPF and ending times of showers, but by later
Saturday, looks like bulk of activity would be pulling away
our area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 18Z TAF packge, did put VCTS in for the southeast sites.
Did try to time more widespread activity in all sites. Cold
front well to the north.

After sunset, expect convection to weaken, but showers and low
CIGS will be the main issue.

While the northern areas may see good visibilities by 18Z Wed,
southern areas may still have fog and showers. Expect CIGS
to remain mainly MVFR and IFR across most of the area up to
18z. The cold front will be slow to move much further south.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...MVFR/IFR cigs likely with periods of heavy rain.

Sat..Showers early with decreasing coverage late.

Sun...Mainly dry with VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ053-057>059-065-066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Martin
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

PAZ005-006-037-071900-
McKean-Potter-Tioga-
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms with locally damaging
winds are possible this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The remnants of what was Hurricane Debby will drift north from
the Southeast U.S. Coastal Waters and bring the potential for a
widespread soaking rain late this week, mainly Friday into
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>027-033>035-041-045-071900-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Somerset-Bedford-
Fulton-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The remnants of what was Hurricane Debby will drift north from
the Southeast U.S. Coastal Waters and bring the potential for a
widespread soaking rain late this week, mainly Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-071900-
Warren-
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The remnants of what was Hurricane Debby will drift north from
the Southeast U.S. Coastal Waters and bring the potential for a
widespread soaking rain late this week, mainly Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ028-036-042-046-049>052-056-063-064-071900-
Juniata-Franklin-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Perry-Cumberland-Adams-
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this
afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms could train east
over the same locations, bringing the potential for heavy to
excessive rainfall of over 2 inches in less than an hour, which
could
lead to localized flooding of poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The remnants of what was Hurricane Debby will drift north from
the Southeast U.S. Coastal Waters and bring the potential for a
widespread soaking rain late this week, mainly late Thursday and
Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ053-057>059-065-066-071900-
Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flood Watch.

Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater
and large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this
afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms could train east
over the same locations, bringing the potential for heavy to
excessive rainfall of over 2 inches in less than an hour, which
could
lead to localized flooding of poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The remnants of what was Hurricane Debby will drift north from
the Southeast U.S. Coastal Waters and bring the potential for a
widespread soaking rain late this week, mainly late Thursday and
Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
321 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

PAZ017-018-024-025-061945-
Northern Centre PA-Clearfield PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-
321 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD...
SOUTHWESTERN CENTRE...NORTHERN BLAIR AND NORTHEASTERN CAMBRIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Tyrone, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Tyrone, Northern Cambria, Philipsburg, Bald Eagle, Bellwood,
Patton, Loretto, Hastings, Osceola Mills, Tipton, Chester Hill,
Carrolltown, Houtzdale, North Philipsburg, South Philipsburg, Sandy
Ridge, Blandburg, Jeffries, and Horseshoe Curve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4074 7867 4094 7864 4094 7816 4079 7816
      4074 7823 4074 7816 4071 7817 4068 7822
      4065 7820 4061 7823 4048 7839 4052 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 274DEG 22KT 4073 7850

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Banghoff

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
330 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     Hail             Port Matilda            40.80N 78.05W
08/06/2024  M1.00 Inch       Centre             PA   911 Call Center

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
334 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Unionville         40.89N 77.90W
08/06/2024                   Centre             PA   Amateur Radio

            Trees and wires down on 3500 S Eagle Valley
            Rd.

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
345 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

PAZ046-051>053-062030-
Columbia PA-Southern Lycoming PA-Northumberland PA-Montour PA-
345 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND...
NORTHERN MONTOUR...SOUTHEASTERN LYCOMING AND NORTHWESTERN COLUMBIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 345 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Montoursville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Muncy, Watsontown, Hughesville, Jerseytown, Rohrsburg, Iola, Eyers
Grove, Waller, Lairdsville, Central, Exchange, Fairmount Spgs,
Biggertown, Delaware Run, Millville, Benton, Turbotville, Picture
Rocks, McEwensville, and Washingtonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
central and north central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4120 7632 4102 7651 4107 7686 4108 7686
      4113 7689 4135 7673 4131 7661 4128 7645
      4128 7631
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 281DEG 19KT 4120 7664

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert