Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
247 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
- Storms cross most of the area before sunrise
- A dry cold front pushes through during the day.
- A strong wave of low pressure will move across southern PA
  Thursday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Convection and some high-end sub-severe wind gusts are moving
into the wrn highlands at 0630Z. Tweaks mainly to the timing
over the next few hours. Dewpoints are largely 60-63FAs the
shortwave/MCV driving these storms rolls east overhead, some ltg
may linger deep into the central mtns since there is still some
instability, mainly aloft. CAPE is lower across the CWA than to
the west, but 0-6km bulk shear is still around 50kts in the nrn
half of the area for the next few hours. Many signs point to
weakening, but a continuation of the current convection under
the MCV. Some fog is possible if we can clear out at all before
morning, which would be more-possible in the west. All the
storms should be gone right around 12Z, and the rest of the day
should get breezy and very warm. Gusts into the m20s N and upper
teens in the S. Maxes in the 80s will be common, with u70s over
the NW third. Drier air arrives later in the morning in the NW
and late aftn in the SE. The front then lays out along or near
our srn border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
During the early morning hours of Thursday, a stationary front
has potential to set up across southern Pennsylvania, with model
guidance suggesting another (more potent) low-pressure system
setting up along/just south of the PA-MD border. This will bring
an increased chance of showers and afternoon/evening
thunderstorms on Thursday. If the low-pressure system sets up
further to the north, there is some potential for portions of
southern PA to have a couple of hours in the warm sector and
some severe potential (outlined in SPC's Day 3 SWO with SLGT up
to the MD-PA border) but with the bulk of model guidance
suggesting set-up south of the area, have mainly stuck to SChc
thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The aforementioned low moves off the coast on Friday and will
allow for relatively cool temperatures across central PA with
lingering showers as the unsettled pattern continues into the
weekend with the longwave trough across the region. The best
chances of precipitation tapering off will be in the overnight
Saturday morning period with chances increasing into the latter
half of the weekend.

Upper level ridging across the western CONUS will continue the
unsettled pattern into the beginning of next week, with
temperatures moderating with height rises and southwesterly flow
into central Pennsylvania.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks will spread a
broken line of showers/tsra through the region late tonight,
lasting 2-3 hours and accompanied by possible MVFR vis
reductions. An increasingly moist southwest flow ahead of an
upstream cold front is then likely to yield late night IFR cigs
at KBFD and possible IFR cigs at KJST. Downsloping flow east of
the Alleghenies should result in nothing worse than MVFR
conditions over that part of the state.

The passage of a low level jet late tonight could result in
borderline LLWS conditions across the W Mtns late tonight.
However, the 18Z Bufkit soundings suggest we will remain just
below criteria.

The cold front will sweep through the region later Wed morning,
probably without any precipitation. A drier westerly flow behind
the front will bring a return to widespread VFR conditions
between 12Z-15Z.

Outlook...

Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs possible, mainly PM.

Fri...Low cigs/drizzle possible, especially in the morning.

Sat...PM showers/low cigs possible, mainly W Mtns.

Sun...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sct afternoon showers/brief
vis reductions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NPB
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/NPB
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/NPB
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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