Wind Advisory 12, NWS Cleveland, OH

541 
WWUS71 KCLE 201042
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
542 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

OHZ003-006>008-017-022-201500-
/O.EXA.KCLE.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-241120T1500Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Portage-
Including the cities of Perrysburg, Bellevue, Toledo, Fremont,
Aurora, Streetsboro, Oak Harbor, Ravenna, Kent, Port Clinton,
Genoa, Clyde, Bowling Green, and Findlay
542 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one to two miles in dense fog.

* WHERE...Portage, Hancock, Lucas, Ottawa, Sandusky, and Wood 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of 
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

OHZ010-201845-
/O.CON.KCLE.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-241120T1500Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0012.241120T2000Z-241121T0500Z/
Lorain-
Including the cities of Avon Lake, Lorain, North Ridgeville, and
Elyria
542 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS 
MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, visibility one quarter to one 
  half mile in dense fog. For the Wind Advisory, west winds 15 to 25 
  mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Lorain County.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 10 AM EST this morning. 
  For the Wind Advisory, from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST 
  tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Low 
  visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of 
distance ahead of you.

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

OHZ009-018>021-027>032-036>038-047-201500-
/O.CON.KCLE.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-241120T1500Z/
Erie-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-
Wayne-Stark-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Including the cities of Mount Vernon, Killbuck, Marion, Carey,
Millersburg, Huron, Mount Gilead, Alliance, Upper Sandusky,
Massillon, Mansfield, Wooster, Crestline, Tiffin, Wadsworth,
Ashland, Orrville, Canton, Brunswick, Fostoria, Sandusky,
Rittman, Akron, Cardington, Galion, Bucyrus, Norwalk, Willard,
and Medina
542 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest Ohio.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of 
distance ahead of you.

&&

$$

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001-002-201845-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0012.241120T2000Z-241121T0500Z/
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Edinboro, Cleveland, Ashtabula, Eastlake,
Erie, Andover, Wickliffe, Corry, Union City, Mentor, Willowick,
Chardon, Orwell, Painesville, Willoughby, Roaming Shores,
Middlefield, Burton, Conneaut, South Russell, Geneva, Bainbridge,
Chesterland, and Jefferson
542 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Cuyahoga, 
  Geauga, and Lake Counties. In Pennsylvania, Northern Erie and 
  Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Saunders

845 
WWUS71 KCLE 201447
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
947 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

OHZ010-202300-
/O.EXP.KCLE.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-241120T1500Z/
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0012.241120T2000Z-241121T0500Z/
Lorain-
Including the cities of Lorain, Elyria, Avon Lake, and North
Ridgeville
947 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Lorain County.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

OHZ003-006>009-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-201600-
/O.EXP.KCLE.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-241120T1500Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-
Summit-Portage-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Including the cities of Fostoria, Ravenna, Mount Vernon, Akron,
Mansfield, Brunswick, Fremont, Perrysburg, Millersburg, Galion,
Huron, Bellevue, Upper Sandusky, Kent, Tiffin, Toledo, Sandusky,
Marion, Streetsboro, Massillon, Port Clinton, Crestline,
Orrville, Cardington, Canton, Mount Gilead, Norwalk, Willard,
Bowling Green, Medina, Alliance, Wadsworth, Ashland, Rittman,
Findlay, Oak Harbor, Killbuck, Clyde, Bucyrus, Aurora, Wooster,
Carey, and Genoa
947 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Patchy fog continues to linger across portions of the area, but 
conditions should continue to improve over the next hour as the 
surface temperatures increase and winds strengthen.

$$

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001-002-202300-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0012.241120T2000Z-241121T0500Z/
Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Chesterland, Mentor, Burton, Erie, Corry,
South Russell, Ashtabula, Roaming Shores, Middlefield, Orwell,
Union City, Painesville, Bainbridge, Chardon, Jefferson,
Cleveland, Eastlake, Willoughby, Willowick, Andover, Conneaut,
Geneva, Wickliffe, and Edinboro
947 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Cuyahoga, 
  Geauga, and Lake Counties. In Pennsylvania, Northern Erie and 
  Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Campbell

159 
WWUS71 KCLE 202017
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
317 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

OHZ010>014-089-PAZ001-002-210430-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-241121T0500Z/
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Chesterland, Mentor, Avon Lake, Burton,
Erie, Corry, South Russell, Ashtabula, Roaming Shores,
Middlefield, Orwell, Union City, Painesville, Bainbridge, North
Ridgeville, Chardon, Lorain, Elyria, Jefferson, Cleveland,
Eastlake, Willoughby, Willowick, Andover, Conneaut, Geneva,
Wickliffe, and Edinboro
317 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Lorain, Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, 
  Cuyahoga, Geauga, and Lake Counties. In Pennsylvania, Northern 
  Erie and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Campbell

366 
WWUS71 KCLE 210017
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
717 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

OHZ010-013-014-210130-
/O.CAN.KCLE.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-241121T0500Z/
Lorain-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Including the cities of Chesterland, Jefferson, Orwell, North
Ridgeville, Middlefield, Andover, Avon Lake, South Russell,
Bainbridge, Elyria, Lorain, Chardon, Burton, and Roaming Shores
717 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Breezy winds will continue into this evening then decrease 
overnight. Impacts from the winds are no longer expected to be a 
hazard.

$$

OHZ011-012-089-PAZ001-002-210500-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-241121T0500Z/
Cuyahoga-Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Ashtabula, Union City, Painesville, Erie,
Eastlake, Willowick, Corry, Geneva, Conneaut, Edinboro, Mentor,
Cleveland, Willoughby, and Wickliffe
717 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Cuyahoga, and Lake Counties. 
  In Pennsylvania, Northern Erie and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds will be along the Lake 
  Erie shoreline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Clark

350 
WWUS71 KCLE 210242
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
942 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

OHZ011-210345-
/O.CAN.KCLE.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-241121T0500Z/
Cuyahoga-
Including the cities of Cleveland
942 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Breezy winds will continue at times overnight but are no longer 
expected to be a hazard.

$$

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-002-210500-
/O.CON.KCLE.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-241121T0500Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Ashtabula, Union City, Painesville, Erie,
Eastlake, Willowick, Corry, Geneva, Conneaut, Edinboro, Mentor,
Willoughby, and Wickliffe
942 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...In Ohio, Ashtabula Lakeshore and Lake Counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northern Erie and Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds will be along the Lake 
  Erie shoreline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Clark

139 
WWUS71 KCLE 210457
NPWCLE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1157 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

OHZ012-089-PAZ001-002-210600-
/O.EXP.KCLE.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-241121T0500Z/
Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Ashtabula, Union City, Painesville, Erie,
Eastlake, Willowick, Corry, Geneva, Conneaut, Edinboro, Mentor,
Willoughby, and Wickliffe
1157 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

Breezy winds will continue overnight but are no longer expected to 
be a hazard.

$$

Clark

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
124 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes and intensify
Wednesday, driving a strong cold front across the region. This
low will continue to meander around the Great Lakes Thursday
before gradually moving east and getting absorbed into another
low near the east coast Friday into Saturday. High pressure will
build in from the west Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for a portion of North
Central Ohio where skies have cleared but high dewpoint remains.
There is a chance this may need to be expanded as stratus
scatters out in Northeast Ohio, allowing for fog to develop. Did
not include the lakeshore counties in the Advisory as a trough
crossing Lake Erie is keeping winds up with a little better
mixing. Drier air will also start to work in from the west but
light winds have allowed for good cooling and dewpoint
depressions are near zero.

Previous discussion...Big changes are on the way over the next
24 to 30 hours as a dynamic storm system impacts the Great Lakes
bringing falling temperatures, gusty winds, and the first
snowflakes of the season, along with light accumulations.

Starting off this afternoon, a deep mid/upper closed low can be
seen on visible satellite and water vapor imagery centered over
the northern Plains, with an associated broad mid/upper trough
axis stretching down into the southern Rockies and southern
Plains. This trough axis and associated closed low will swing
into the Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday night, and as it
does, the left exit of a 115-125 knot H3 jet streak rounding the
base will help to induce a new surface low over Lower Michigan.
Deterministic guidance has been struggling the past few runs on
how quickly this low deepens and wraps up, but there is better
agreement now that the low will retrograde into the northern and
western Great Lakes quickly after it develops, with consensus
pointing to a sub 990 mb low over northern Lake Michigan by
Thursday morning while becoming vertically stacked beneath the
closed mid/upper low. This will set up broad cyclonic west to
southwesterly flow and cold air advection behind a strong cold
front Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the occluding nature
of the system and farther NW deepening suggests both marginal
temperatures for snow and wind gusts staying just below
advisory criteria, although still gusty.

In terms of precipitation, the showers currently positioned over
NE Ohio and NW PA this afternoon are being driven by a lead
mid-level shortwave ejecting out ahead of the system, which is
focusing isentropic ascent along a warm front/occluded front.
These showers will exit to the east and northeast by 22 or 23Z
as the frontal boundary clears the area allowing mid-level
drying to work into the region. Drizzle and mist in the wake of
the steadier showers this evening will eventually end too as
the drier air wins out. This will lead to a dry night, but
light/variable winds and subsidence behind the front combined
with a lot of lingering near-surface moisture will lead to a
shallow inversion set up, so expect fairly widespread fog to
develop overnight. By Wednesday morning, the strengthening cold
front will rapidly approach from the west as the surface low
develops in Lower Michigan. Strengthening frontogenesis and lift
from the aforementioned jet dynamics will lead to another band
of showers rotating across the area from late morning through
the afternoon. QPF does not look very impressive since there
will not be a deep connection to the Gulf, so only expect a few
tenths to up to 0.50 inch of rain. There will be a pronounced
dry slot Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the low
deepens and becomes stacked and drifts to the NW, so this will
scatter out the precip, but any showers will mix with and change
to wet snow inland from the lake late Wednesday night as strong
cold air advection drops 850 mb temps to about -7 C by 12Z
Thursday. The best chance for light accumulations will be in
upslope areas of the central highlands and in the higher
elevations of the primary snowbelt of NE Ohio and NW PA, but
given the dry slot and SW component to the boundary layer flow
keeping lake-effect moisture out of the region, only expect up
to a half inch of slushy snow. Nevertheless, untreated surfaces
will become slippery, and this is the first snow of the season,
so motorists and those venturing outside will need to use
caution.

In terms of winds, SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots ahead
of the front becoming W to WSW behind it Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night. NAM BUFKIT soundings show favorable
mixing in the strong cold air advection Wednesday evening and
early Wednesday night, but winds in the 850-925 mb layer will
only be 35-45 knots which is very marginal. With this in mind,
peak gusts will mainly stay in the 35-45 mph range, and this is
supported by HREF probabilities which only show 30% chance for
winds over 40 mph and 10-20% chance for winds over 50 mph. The
strongest winds will be along and just behind the front late
Wednesday afternoon and evening, and cannot rule out a brief
gust to 50 mph along the lakeshore at that time, but again,
probabilities are low.

Finally, in terms of temperatures, expect a rise through the
evening as warm air advection increases, with upper 50s/mid 60s
common later this evening. This will set up a mild night with
lows only falling into the mid/upper 40s. Highs Wednesday will
occur in the morning, with low/mid 50s in NW Ohio and mid 50s to
around 60 elsewhere before falling through the afternoon. Lows
Wednesday night will be much colder, with low 30s expected,
except mid 30s near the lakeshore. On that note, lakeshore areas
will stay all rain through the night, so communities within
about 10 miles of the shoreline will need to wait longer for the
first flakes of the season, which is common.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cyclonic flow aloft backs gradually from SW'erly to NW'erly during
this period as an occluded and vertically-stacked low wobbles
SE'ward from northern Lower MI to the Upper OH Valley on Thursday
and then wobbles ENE'ward to the Gulf of Maine by daybreak Saturday.
This will allow a surface trough and chilly air mass to linger over
the eastern Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and vicinity as mean low-
level flow shifts gradually from SW'erly to NW'erly. Abundant cloud
cover will persist due in part to moist isentropic ascent preceding
the axes of shortwave troughs revolving around the aforementioned
vertically-stacked low. Daytime highs are expected to reach only the
mid 30's to lower 40's Thursday afternoon and the upper 30's to mid
40's Friday afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to reach the
upper 20's to mid 30's around daybreak Friday and mainly the mid
30's to lower 40's around daybreak Saturday.

Scattered and periodic showers will impact our CWA through the short-
term period due to moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave
trough axes and low-level convergence/ascent along attendant surface
trough axes coinciding with sufficient moisture and releasing weak
potential instability in the lowest 1 km AGL. In addition, a
sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column over and
downwind of ~12C Lake Erie and the seeder-feeder process will allow
lake-enhanced precip, steady to heavy at times, to occur over and
downwind of the lake. This lake-enhanced precip is expected to be
directed into portions of western NY Thursday morning into early
afternoon due to SW'erly mean low-level flow. As said flow veers
gradually to W'erly and then NW'erly, periods of lake-enhanced
precip are expected to shift generally S'ward and impact NW PA and
NE OH later Thursday through Friday night. Precip is expected to
fall as rain over and very near ~12C Lake Erie where a
sufficiently-deep surface-based melting layer is expected to
persist over/downwind of the lake. However, farther inland from
Lake Erie, rain is expected to mix with or change to wet snow at
times Thursday through Friday morning given expected evolution
of the atmospheric column, including surface air temperatures
and wet-bulb temperatures. Wet snow accumulations of one inch
or less are possible on Thursday, especially during the morning
hours. An additional one inch or less of snow accumulation is
possible Thursday night into Friday morning in interior northern
OH, while interior NW PA may receive another 1 to 3 inches of
wet snow accumulation. Very little or no snow is expected to mix
with rain Friday night into Saturday morning as the coldest
low-level air shifts generally E'ward with the aforementioned
vertically-stacked low. We will continue to monitor trends in
NWP model guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cyclonic NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances
affect our CWA and vicinity on Saturday through Saturday night as a
ridge at the surface and aloft builds slowly from the Upper Midwest.
Isolated and periodic rain showers are possible due to the
aforementioned shortwave trough passages. In addition, a sufficiently-
cold/moist NW'erly to WNW'erly mean low-level flow over/downwind of
Lake Erie is expected to allow lake-effect showers to impact the
snowbelt and vicinity. A few wet snowflakes may mix with the rain
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Daytime highs are expected
to reach the 40's Saturday afternoon and be followed by overnight
lows mainly in the mid to upper 30's around daybreak Sunday.

Odds favor fair weather on Sunday as the narrow ridge at the surface
and aloft crests E'ward over our region and is accompanied by
stabilizing subsidence. Lingering and light lake-effect rain showers
over and generally east of Lake Erie should end by sunset Sunday
evening as lake-induced CAPE wanes via low-level dry air advection
and a lowering subsidence inversion. Afternoon highs are expected to
reach the 40's.

Zonal (i.e. W'erly) flow aloft, embedded shortwave troughs, and net
surface troughing are forecast to impact the eastern Great Lakes and
Upper OH Valley on Sunday night through Tuesday. Periodic and
scattered rain showers are expected. Overnight lows mainly in the
mid 30's to lower 40's Sunday night and Monday night, respectively,
should be followed by afternoon highs mainly in the mid 40's to
lower 50's on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A warm front has exited to the east, which will be quickly
followed by a dissipating cold front. Low stratus accompanying
this weak front still lingers across eastern TAF sites such as
KCLE, KYNG and KERI. This may linger for 1-2 more hours at
KCLE/KYNG and through much of the pre-dawn hours at KERI. To the
west, a moist boundary layer and light winds has resulted in
the development of dense fog, particulary in central Ohio (e.g.
KMFD/KCAK area and points south). This area of dense fog should
gradually expand through the night, though it's uncertain by how
much. Fog will likely fill in at KYNG as the low stratus exits
to the east. It may approach other TAF sites such as KFDY, KTOL,
and KCLE but may be more periodic/patchy and less persistent.
Any fog that does develop will gradually dissipate after 13Z.

It's possible that a few patches of VFR develop like 12-15Z
along the I-75 corridor (KTOL/KFDY) and also near KERI) but it
won't last long as stratus fills back in, variable between
MVFR/IFR conditions. A much stronger cold front arrives from the
west during the afternoon/evening hours. A swath of rain showers
and strong westerly wind gusts of 30-35 knots (isolated gusts
as high as 40 knots especially near the lakeshore) will
accompany this front, lasting about 3-4 hours. MVFR/IFR
conditions with ceilings and visibilities will be possible.
There should be a quick transition to VFR conditions and rapid
drop off to wind speeds once the rain ends tonight. Isolated to
scattered rain/snow showers begin to move in from the west
after ~02Z. Any snow that does potentially mix in shouldn't
result in significant impacts as temperatures in the 35-39
degree range should limit impacts.

Outlook...A large area of low pressure is expected to impact
the region through Saturday, bringing breezy conditions and
periodic non-VFR in rain showers, potentially mixed with wet
snow showers Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
E'erly to SE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots veer to S'erly to
SW'erly this evening and overnight tonight as a warm front drifts
NE'ward across Lake Erie and a ridge exits E'ward. Waves trend 3
feet or less. Relatively-warm and humid overlying air may cool to
supersaturation via contact with ~53F Lake Erie and yield patchy fog
formation through daybreak Wednesday. A triple point low develops
and strengthens over southern ON and then meanders in vicinity of
that region and Lake Huron on Wednesday through Wednesday night. In
addition, a cold front trailing the low will sweep E'ward across the
lake during the late afternoon through evening hours of Wednesday.
SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots ahead of the front become SW'erly
to W'erly and freshen to around 20 to 30 knots behind the front.
As a result, any fog over the lake is expected to dissipate by
midday Wednesday. Waves build to as large as 2 to 6 feet in the
western basin and 6 to 12 feet farther east. Latest available
ensemble forecast systems indicate the probability of gale-force
winds is no greater than 30%, which has precluded the issuance of a
Gale Watch or Warning. The strong SW'erly to W'erly winds behind the
front will result in a seiche, which may prompt a Low Water Advisory
for the western basin. Stay tuned for forecast updates.

SW'erly to W'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots on Thursday veer to
NW'erly Thursday night as the aforementioned low wobbles from near
Lake Huron and southern ON to the northeastern United States and
allows a trough axis to sweep SE'ward across Lake Erie. Waves as
large as 5 to 10 feet are expected, especially east of The Islands.
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all nearshore waters for
later Wednesday through early Thursday evening, although a temporal
extension of the advisory will likely be needed, especially east of
The Islands. NW'erly winds as strong as 15 to 25 knots persist on
Friday through Saturday night as the aforementioned low wobbles
NE'ward from the northeastern United States toward the Canadian
Maritimes and continues to extend a trough over the eastern Great
Lakes, yet a ridge begins to build from the Upper Midwest Saturday
through Saturday night. Waves remain as large as 5 to 9 feet through
Saturday and are then forecast to subside to 5 feet or less by
daybreak Sunday. W'erly to NW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots back
toward SW'erly on Sunday as the axis of the aforementioned ridge
slides E'ward across most of Lake Erie and the ridge continues to
impact the lake. Waves are expected to subside further to 3 feet or
less by early Sunday evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for OHZ018-019-
     027>031-036>038-047.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for LEZ142>147.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for LEZ148-149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...KEC/Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Jaszka

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
409 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-202115-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
409 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periods of gale-force winds will be possible Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-202115-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
409 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A strong low pressure system is expected to develop over the Great
Lakes region Wednesday into Thursday, bringing widespread
precipitation to the region. Strong wind gusts and wet snow
accumulations are possible Wednesday night into early Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.