Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Cleveland, OH

293 
WWUS51 KCLE 242006
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
406 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

OHC007-242016-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-240724T2045Z/
Ashtabula OH-
406 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ASHTABULA COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4149 8048 4174 8013 4175 7984 4160 7983
      4151 7997 4151 7998 4149 8000 4148 8037
      4149 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 274DEG 21KT 4170 8011 4145 8046 

$$

PAC039-242045-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-240724T2045Z/
Crawford PA-
406 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY...

At 406 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Meadville to near Greenville, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Adamsville, Guys Mills, Atlantic, Cochranton, Saegertown,
Conneaut Lake, Jamestown, Blooming Valley, Townville, Geneva,
Hartstown, and Conneaut Lakeshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 8048 4174 8013 4175 7984 4160 7983
      4151 7997 4151 7998 4149 8000 4148 8037
      4149 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 274DEG 21KT 4170 8011 4145 8046 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Saunders

852 
WWUS51 KCLE 242039
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
439 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

PAC039-242049-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-240724T2045Z/
Crawford PA-
439 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM EDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4149 8048 4174 8013 4175 7984 4160 7983
      4151 7997 4151 7998 4149 8000 4148 8037
      4149 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 270DEG 27KT 4171 7985 4143 7998 

$$

Saunders

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
232 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Quebec will drag a cold front southeastward
this afternoon and evening. High pressure builds in behind the
front Thursday before gradually moving toward the East Coast
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10:00 AM Update:
Refined POPs this afternoon/evening slightly based on most
recent hi-res guidance. Ended up increasing POPs a bit across
interior Northeast OH (mainly east of I-77) into interior
Northwest PA given good hi-res model agreement that the
combination of modest ascent with a vort max moving through
later this afternoon and a pre-frontal trough (likely enhanced
by a lake breeze near the eastern lakeshore) will spark
thunderstorms by early to mid-afternoon. Locations farther west
should still see isolated to scattered showers/storms along and
ahead of the cold front which will be pushing into Northwest OH
by the midday or early afternoon hours. Already have a stray
cell on radar over northern Lake Erie as of this writing and
there's pretty strong agreement that we'll see convection begin
to fire in earnest on land along and ahead of the lake
breeze/pre-frontal trough and front itself in the 12-2PM window.

Still looking at a somewhat marginal severe weather potential
this afternoon and early evening, mainly in the form of
relatively localized damaging winds. Poor mid-level lapse rates
are keeping thermodynamics on the marginal side, however, expect
to see 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE, 600-900 J/KG of DCAPE (potential
negative buoyancy in downdrafts), and steep low-level lapse
rates to go along with up to about 30 knots of deep-layer
shear. It's enough shear for loosely organized convection and
just enough thermodynamics for some downburst potential and
perhaps a bit of hail with one or two stronger cells. The
greatest instability and shear overlap appears to be across
Northeast OH and Northwest PA this afternoon which aligns with
where storms should be most numerous. It's this area where we
have the greatest potential to see a few severe storms, with
potential a bit more limited (but still enough for a low-end
marginal risk from the SPC) farther west. Mean flow will be
oriented favorably to the pre-frontal trough/lake breeze in
Northeast OH/Northwest PA that we may see some training
convection, mainly a bit inland from Lake Erie and east of I-77.
This could result in a few spots seeing a quick but localized
1-3" of rain per several hi-res models so as mentioned below
will watch for localized flooding potential. The dry antecedent
will largely limit flood concerns to prone/urban areas.

Previous discussion...
Upper level trough axis with embedded shortwave disturbances will
continue to move east over the Great Lakes region through the
near term period. At the surface, low pressure centered over
Quebec will drag a cold front southeast throughout the day
today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a pre-frontal trough this afternoon along and east
of I-71. A decent environment in place for strong to severe
storms this afternoon as MLCAPE values rise into the 1000-1500+
J/kg range in combination with steep low level lapse rates. This
environment favors a primary hazard of damaging wind gusts in
any strong to severe storm. SPC SWODY1 continues to place
Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania in a Marginal Risk
(Level 1/5) for severe weather. Best timing for severe weather
east of I-71 will occur between 2-10 PM tonight. In addition to
damaging wind gusts, can't rule out instances of heavy rainfall
and/or localized flooding as unusually high PWATs rise into the
1.4-1.6 inch range, generally 75-90th percentile when compared
to neighboring sites sounding climatology. Cold front continues
to sag southeast through this evening allowing for most showers
and thunderstorms to dissipate after sunset. Highs ahead of the
cold front rise into the low to mid 80s with overnight lows
settling in the low to mid 60s.

Not entirely dry forecast Wednesday night into the day Thursday as
the upper trough lingers over the region. For now, have slight
chance PoPs through early Thursday afternoon for much of the eastern
and southern portions of the forecast area. Surface high pressure
begins to build in from the northwest through Thursday and will
usher in a period of dry and cooler weather to end the week.
Slightly cooler under northerly flow Thursday with highs in the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet in the short term with high pressure over the Great Lakes that
will be drifting eastward to the northeast CONUS. This will mark the
beginning of the return flow for the CWA and a modest warm up from
the upper 70s/lower 80s Friday to the lower to mid 80s Saturday.
Dewpoints take longer to recover with 50s Friday to upper 50s/lower
60s Saturday. An upper trough axis dropping north to south in the
area Friday morning brings clouds into the eastern CWA, but after
that, mainly clear conditions dominate for the remainder of the
short term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term is going to be a transitionary period with brief upper
level ridging giving way to a more zonal flow that will likely carry
numerous disturbances/areas of PVA with it. High pressure now off
the mid Atlantic/New England coast will be pushing surface/low level
moisture into the CWA, and will see the dewpoints nearing 70F in
most areas. Too far out to judge timing, instability magnitude, etc,
but all signs point to a more active pattern in terms of convective
potential, and this is reflected in the return of chance POPs to the
region for the early part of next week. Temperatures also solidly in
the upper 80s to near 90F each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Scattered convection from roughly LPR to MFD points east ahead
of a cold front will continue through the afternoon/early
evening before exiting from west to east into this evening.
Ongoing impacts at CLE and YNG, and possible at CAK and ERI.
Mainly VFR outside of the convection which will continue into
tonight, though will monitor for some patchy fog development
overnight if clear skies can persist enough. Greatest concern at
YNG, but can't rule out at MFD, CAK, and ERI as well. A
disturbance may graze the FDY-MFD corridor with showers pre-dawn
Thursday. Otherwise, a surface trough dropping off of Lake Erie
may bring scattered showers and perhaps a bit of thunder
Thursday morning, especially at CLE and YNG but possibly working
towards MFD and CAK later in the morning too. Included VCSH and
some MVFR ceilings with that feature for now. Conditions should
improve Thursday afternoon/evening as high pressure builds in.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in patchy fog early Friday. Non-VFR
possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds today 10-15kts ahead of a cold front with wave
heights 1-3ft in the central and eastern basins become northerly
around 10kts tonight into Thursday with wave heights 1-2ft. These
winds become northeasterly around 10kts Friday into Saturday thanks
to high pressure moving into the region. Wave heights max out 1-2ft
in the central basin and less than a foot for the eastern and
western basins. Winds finally become offshore Sunday through Tuesday
with wave heights less than a foot as high pressure shifts east of
Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
337 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-250745-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-
Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-
Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-
Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-
337 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for isolated severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening.
Any storm will be capable of producing frequent lightning and periods
of torrential rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
218 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Cleveland         41.52N 81.68W
07/24/2024  M52 MPH          Cuyahoga           OH   ASOS

            ASOS station KBKL Cleveland.

&&

Maines

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
224 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

OHZ033-241900-
Mahoning OH-
224 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MAHONING COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...

At 223 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Maplewood Park to near Sebring. Movement
was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Youngstown, Salem, Columbiana, Boardman, Campbell, Canfield, Sebring,
Austintown, Struthers, Poland, New Middletown, Lowellville, Beloit,
and Greenford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4113 8065 4113 8052 4090 8052 4090 8082
      4093 8083 4093 8089 4090 8090 4091 8102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 276DEG 21KT 4111 8056 4090 8095

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Campbell

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0206 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 WSW Bratenahl         41.54N 81.64W
07/24/2024  M47 MPH          LEZ146             OH   Buoy

            Buoy station CNDO1 Cleveland, OH gust to 41
            knots.

&&

Maines

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
257 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

PAZ003-241945-
Crawford PA-
257 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harmonsburg, or near Meadville, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Cambridge Springs, Harmonsburg, Guys Mills, Cochranton,
Saegertown, Conneaut Lake, Blooming Valley, Venango, Woodcock,
Conneaut Lakeshore, and Geneva.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4155 7992 4154 7993 4151 7998 4149 8000
      4149 8009 4148 8013 4148 8031 4169 8038
      4183 7996 4158 7986
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 255DEG 14KT 4158 8025

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Garuckas

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
317 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

OHZ029-037-047-241945-
Richland OH-Morrow OH-Knox OH-
317 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN MORROW AND NORTHERN KNOX COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fredericktown to Sparta. Movement was east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Fredericktown, Gambier, Chesterville, Sparta, Butler,
and North Liberty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 8280 4060 8255 4059 8234 4056 8233
      4057 8220 4032 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 273DEG 18KT 4055 8254 4042 8269

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Saunders

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
343 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

OHZ032-242030-
Stark OH-
343 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN STARK COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 342 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
North Canton, or near Canton, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Canton, Massillon, Green, Alliance, North Canton, Louisville,
Minerva, East Canton, Meyers Lake, Hills And Dales, Robertsville,
Maximo, Perry Heights, and Greentown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4082 8153 4091 8150 4091 8142 4092 8142
      4093 8109 4073 8109 4072 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 279DEG 16KT 4085 8143

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Garuckas