Winter Weather Advisory 21, NWS Buffalo, NY

653 
WWUS41 KBUF 221530
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1130 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

NYZ006>008-222330-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.240322T2100Z-240323T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1130 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 
  inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most of the snow accumulation will be
  tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-222330-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.240322T1530Z-240323T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
1130 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 2 
  to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...The Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-222330-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.240322T1530Z-240323T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
1130 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 2
  to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-222330-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.240322T1530Z-240323T1200Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1130 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 1 
  to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western
  Southern Tier. The greatest accumulations of snow and ice will
  be across the higher terrain.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

998 
WWUS41 KBUF 222023
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
423 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

NYZ006>008-230430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.240322T2100Z-240323T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
423 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 
  10 inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Saturday. The heaviest snow will fall
  overnight through early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Snow developing this
  evening will bring some impact to the evening commute. The
  heaviest snow and worst travel conditions will be overnight
  through mid morning Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-230430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
423 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Mixed precipitation possible south of the Thruway.
  Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches north of the
  Thruway, 2 to 4 inches south of the Thruway. Ice accumulations 
  of up to one tenth of an inch across the western Finger Lakes.

* WHERE...The Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.
  Snow this evening will bring some impact to the evening commute.
  The heaviest snow and worst travel conditions will be late this
  evening through early morning Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-230430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
423 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.
  Snow this evening will bring some impact to the evening commute.
  The heaviest snow and worst travel conditions will be late this
  evening through early morning Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-230430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1200Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
423 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across southern Erie and Wyoming 
  counties, 1 to 2 inches across the western Southern Tier. Ice 
  accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western 
  Southern Tier.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.
  Snow this evening will bring some impact to the evening commute.
  The heaviest snow and mixed precipitation, and worst travel
  conditions will be from mid evening evening through early 
  morning Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

423 
WWUS41 KBUF 230140
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
940 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

NYZ006>008-230945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240323T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
940 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 
  inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Saturday. The heaviest snow will fall 
  overnight through early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The heaviest snow and 
  worst travel conditions will be overnight through mid morning 
  Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-230945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
940 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...The Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.  
  The heaviest snow and worst travel conditions will be late this 
  evening through early morning Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in slippery roads and limited 
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-230945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
940 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. The
  heaviest snow and worst travel conditions will be late this 
  evening through early morning Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-230945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1200Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
940 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation. Additional snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across southern Erie and Wyoming
  counties, 1 to 3 inches across the western Southern Tier. Ice
  accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch across the western
  Southern Tier.

* WHERE...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western 
  Southern Tier.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. 
  The heaviest snow and mixed precipitation, and worst travel 
  conditions will be from mid evening evening through early 
  morning Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

439 
WWUS41 KBUF 230831
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
431 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

NYZ006>008-231645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240323T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
431 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon. The heaviest snow will
  fall through mid morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The heaviest snow and
  worst travel conditions will be through mid to late morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-231500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
431 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...The Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. The
  heaviest snow and worst travel conditions will be through mid
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-231200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, 
and Batavia
431 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. The
  worst travel conditions will be through around daybreak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-231200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1200Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
431 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up
  to 2 inches and ice accumulations up to few hundredths of an 
  inch.

* WHERE...Southern Erie and Wyoming counties and the western 
  Southern Tier.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. The
  worst travel conditions will be through around daybreak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

JM

085 
WWUS41 KBUF 231046
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
646 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-231200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia, 
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
646 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Scattered snow showers are expected this morning with little if 
any additional accumulation.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-231200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-240323T1500Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
646 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Scattered snow showers are expected this morning with little if 
any additional accumulation.

$$

NYZ006>008-231800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240323T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
646 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light lake effect snow showers will dwindle as high pressure
moves into the region tonight. The area of high pressure will
push east, giving way to an approaching area of low pressure
that will cause widespread snow and/or rain across the area
through Saturday morning. Drier conditions will return for the
second half of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the area will promote clearing skies and
mostly calm winds. This should set the stage for radiational
cooling tonight. As a result, low temperatures will drop down to
the single digits east of Lake Ontario and to the low to upper
teens for areas south of Lake Ontario.

Potential for snow showers will increase late Friday morning and
into the afternoon as a sfc low and shortwave trough approach the
area from the Ohio Valley through the day on Friday. A swath of
showers will move into the area from the west as a trough/frontal
boundary pushes into the region Friday afternoon. The main batch of
precip should first move into the area north of I90, and then slowly
fill in to the south and from the west as the sfc low approaches
from the west. Precipitation should become steadier by the early to
mid-afternoon for areas north of I90 in WNY. Steadier light snow
should reach the North Country by around the evening commute, with
the precipitation filling in south and east to most of the Niagara
Frontier by then as well. Precip should mainly start out as snow and
then slowly transition to rain for some areas as warm air advection
increases ahead of the approaching sfc low. Still some uncertainty
with the forecast models on track of sfc low and therefore the
temperatures and resulting precip type. It looks like mainly south
of I90 is the best potential for the changeover to rain, but
guidance does bring a changeover to rain as far north as Lake
Ontario for Monroe and Wayne counties at least briefly. More shower
type precip to the south toward the NY/PA line will also start out
as snow, but changeover to rain showers fairly quickly with the
warmer temperatures pushing north into these areas earlier.
Temperatures on Friday will vary across the area with low 30s to
near 40 for areas south of Lake Ontario and in the mid 20s to near
30 east of Lake Ontario. These temperatures could end up being
slightly cooler or warmer depending on the track of the incoming sfc
low.

Friday evening, precip will continue to fill in south and east as
the sfc low tracks northeast across the Western Southern Tier to
Central NY area and pulls a cold front through with it. A brief
period of freezing rain may be possible for portions of the Niagara
Frontier and Genesee Valley as warmer air briefly pushes north
Friday evening into the night, but still a bit too much uncertainty
on that. Behind the passing sfc low and cold front, any areas of
rain should change back over to snow through the rest of the night.
The sfc low and front should pass through the Western Southern Tier
during the second half of the night on Friday night and through the
North Country around daybreak on Saturday morning. Widespread
synoptic snow should end for most of WNY by daybreak on Saturday and
continue for areas southeast and east of Lake Ontario into the
morning on Saturday. Temperatures Friday night will be in the low to
mid 20s east of Lake Ontario and in the upper 20s to mid 30s south
of Lake Ontario.

The sfc low and front should track through the area fairly quickly,
but a plume of moisture from the Pacific and the GOMEX wrapping up
within this system and up along the East Coast ahead of a
strengthening coastal low should make QPF amounts of around a third
to one inch possible, especially with what looks like pretty strong
forcing along the cold front as it passes.

Snowfall totals through daybreak on Saturday should be in the range
of 3 to 5 inches for the Niagara Frontier from around I90 northward
and to the Rochester area; a coating to 1.5 inches for the rest of
the area south of Lake Ontario. East of Lake Ontario where cooler
temperatures are expected, around 4 to 8 inches of snowfall is
expected, with some higher amounts possible over the Tug Hill.
Additional light accumulations will be possible into the morning
hours on Saturday east of Lake Ontario. Snow ratios during the event
will generally be in the 8:1 to 12:1 range from south to north
respectively.

Snow amounts in mind, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for
Lewis, Jefferson and Oswego counties from Friday afternoon through
early Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Wave of surface low pressure that brought us widespread
precipitation Friday night will continue shifting east of the
forecast area Saturday. The northern stream jet associated with
this system will begin to phase with the southern jet as it
moves towards the coast, while upstream a stout mid-level ridge
and surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. Snow with
some rain mixing in across the lower terrain areas will taper
off from west to east through the day as a result. Far western
NY should be mainly dry by mid to late morning Saturday, with
the North Country to follow later in the afternoon. Guidance is
hinting at some additional light NNW flow upslope snow showers
developing across the higher terrain areas east of Lake Erie and
across the western Finger Lakes in the wake of the system and
as the broad upper trough axis swings through. Have held onto
Chc PoPs in these areas for a few additional hours Sat morning
though BUFKIT soundings indicate significant drying above 900mb
thereafter, so expecting little more than just extra clouds
lingering through Saturday night onwards.

Cold air advection with 850H temps sinking back to around -8C will
continue to hold sfc temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal Saturday
and Saturday night. This will translate to highs in the 30s and lows
in the teens and low 20s respectively.

Surface high pressure over Quebec will extend across the eastern
Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night, ensuring a stretch of quiet
weather for the back half of the weekend. Not much airmass
modification across the region Sunday so expecting temps to remain
on the chilly side, though there should at least be more in the way
of sunshine. As the axis of the surface ridge slides east Sunday
night, winds will veer southeasterly as warm air advection aloft
begins. This should allow sfc temps to moderate somewhat overnight,
though lows will still be in the 20s with teens across the North
Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong upper level ridging across the eastern CONUS will shrink and
move off the coast through early next week. Warm, dry air will begin
to surge across the eastern Great Lakes with a stiff east-
southeasterly breeze on the backside of this high pressure. This
will cause the pattern to abruptly flip from the winter-like below
normal pattern to above normal by Monday with highs well into the
50s south of the Lake Ontario shoreline, though still only 40s close
to the shore and across the North Country. This will change by
Tuesday as highs in the 50s become much more common across the
entire forecast area.

Next system with renewed chances for precipitation will take aim at
the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. A strong southern
jet will transport a steady stream of GOMEX based moisture into the
eastern Great Lakes, with surface cyclogenesis under the left-exit
quadrant of the jet causing low pressure to climb from the Upper
Midwest to Ontario Province across the Great Lakes. The track of
this low suggests that winds could become quite breezy with this
system though there remains a lot of uncertainty in the strength of
the sfc low and associated LLJ. Otherwise, have undercut the NBM on
PoPs as operational guidance continues to suggest Tuesday will
remain mostly dry across our region, though confidence is high
enough at this point for low-end lkly PoPs Tuesday night as large
scale height falls and moisture advection will bring some widespread
precip to the region. Temps well into the 40s should support an all
rain forecast.

The area should begin to dry out behind the system Wednesday night,
though will hang onto low-end PoPs through Thursday as the primary
trough axis will lag far behind to the west and may support some
additional light QPF late next week. Temps are expected to cool to
near normal behind the system as well, though remain much warmer
than those seen this past week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move across the region overnight with
mainly clear conditions, except for lake clouds southeast of
Lake Ontario.

Light snow will move into the region Friday afternoon ahead of
an area of low pressure. Rain will likely change to a wintry mix
across the Southern Tier (KJHW) by Friday evening. Sub-VFR
conditions will spread from west to east across the region with
MVFR/IFR conditions likely Friday night.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...IFR/MVFR with snow and rain.
Rain/snow line close to KBUF/KIAG and KROC. LLWS possible near KJHW
Friday night.

Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As surface high pressure builds towards the Lower Lakes overnight
west to northwest winds and waves will subside. These winds
will shift to southeasterly Friday behind the surface high with
a gentle breeze through much of the day.

The winds become easterly and increase on Lake Ontario through
Friday afternoon. The stronger easterly flow will build waves
to small craft thresholds by Friday evening on the west end of
Lake Ontario. Behind a storm system, winds will become
northwesterly, with choppy waters developing along the southern
Lake Ontario shoreline later Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HSK/SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HSK/Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Thomas/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
402 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-222015-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
402 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Low pressure will pass just over or just south of the region late
Friday through early Saturday, spreading another round of snow into
the region. The greatest chance of moderate snow accumulations will
be along and north of the New York State Thruway. Areas farther
south near the Pennsylvania State line may mix with or change to
rain. There may be a few pockets of freezing rain as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-222015-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
402 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Low pressure will pass just south of the region late Friday through
early Saturday, spreading another round of snow into the region. The
greatest chance of heavy snow accumulations will be east of Lake
Ontario, especially over the higher terrain. Snowfall amounts of
greater than 7 inches is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-222015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
402 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-222015-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
402 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-222015-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
402 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf