Small Craft Advisory 30, NWS Buffalo, NY

734 
WHUS71 KBUF 222015
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
415 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

LOZ042-230415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.240322T2100Z-240323T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
415 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-230415-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.240322T2100Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
415 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

288 
WHUS71 KBUF 222249
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
649 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

LOZ044-230700-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.240323T1000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
649 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-230700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
649 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-230700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
649 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

164 
WHUS71 KBUF 230136
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
936 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

LOZ042-230945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
936 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-230945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
936 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-230945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.240323T1000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
936 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

834 
WHUS71 KBUF 230831
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
431 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

LOZ042-231645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
431 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-231645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
431 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-231645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.240323T1000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
431 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

071 
WHUS71 KBUF 231046
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
646 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

LOZ042-231800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
646 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-231900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
646 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-231900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
646 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

969 
WHUS71 KBUF 231536
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1136 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

LOZ042-232345-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240324T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1136 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-232100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1136 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-232100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1136 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

463 
WHUS71 KBUF 232054
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
454 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

LOZ043-232200-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
454 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...


$$

LOZ044-232200-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240323T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
454 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...


$$

LOZ042-240500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240324T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
454 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

853 
WHUS71 KBUF 232313
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
713 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

LOZ030-240715-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240324T0900Z/
Lower Niagara River-
713 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-240715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240324T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
713 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

949 
WHUS71 KBUF 240540
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
140 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

LOZ030-240900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240324T0900Z/
Lower Niagara River-
140 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-240900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240324T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
140 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

202 
WHUS71 KBUF 240828
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
428 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

LOZ030-042-240930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-240324T0900Z/
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
428 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
709 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will push east today, giving way to an
approaching area of low pressure that will bring accumulating snow
and mixed precipitation, including rain and freezing rain to the
area later today through Saturday morning. Drier conditions will
return for the second half of the weekend into early next week along
with a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over the region early this morning will slide
off to the east today. Advancing wing of warm advection tied to a
shortwave pushing out of the northern plains currently lifting into
the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. Associated area of
precipitation will start to make headway into western New York toward
mid day with a gradual expansion across the region through the
afternoon as a surface low lifts through the Ohio Valley. Thermal
profiles with this event are tricky with what should be a fairly
sharp delineation between snow and mixed precipitation, including some
freezing rain and even just plain rain.

Precipitation for all areas will start as snow as cold resident air
mass behind departing high pressure will remain in place today.
Light snow should become steadier by the early to mid afternoon for
areas north of the NYS Thruway in western New York, with steadier
light snow reaching the North Country by early evening.

Precipitation will fill in quickly across the area early this evening
as the surface low approaches. There will be a gradual transition
over to mixed precipitation, including some freezing rain as warmer
air aloft ahead of the surface low arrives into the region. A change
over to plain rain is likely across the Southern Tier, perhaps as
far north as the NYS Thruway as warmer air eventually overwhelms the
column. There remains some model spread with how far north the
warmer air gets into the region, but the general model consensus is
to keep across along and north of the NYS Thruway all snow will some
potential for mixed precipitation. The better chance for mixed
precipitation including freezing rain and a changeover to plain rain
will be south of the NYS Thruway, especially across the Southern
Tier.

Attendant cold front works across the region later tonight as the
parent shortwave pushes into southern Ontario. Any areas of rain
will change back over to wet snow. Snowfall totals through daybreak
on Saturday should be in the range of 2 to 5 inches for the Niagara
Frontier from around the NYS Thruway northward to the Rochester area
with lesser amounts to the south. East of Lake Ontario where colder
temperatures are expected, totals of 5 to 9 are expected with
perhaps a bit more on the Tug Hill. Any ice accumulation tonight
will range from a light glaze to under a tenth of an inch.

With the combination of minor icing and snowfall amounts a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for all areas south of Lake
Ontario. With higher snowfall amounts expected east of Lake Ontario
a Winter Storm Warning has been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Large elongated area of low pressure that brought the heavy snow to
the North Country along with snow/wintry mix south of Lake Ontario
will move east of our area Saturday afternoon and continue to pound
New England with rain and snow through Saturday night. Any
rain/wintry mix will have transitioned over to snow across the
region as colder air wraps in behind the departing system. Steadier
snow will have ended across far western NY as we open the period,
while snow continues from the interior Southern Tier/Genesee Valley
eastward. Expect snow to taper off from west to east through midday,
with the last of the lingering snow showers ending by mid afternoon
east of Lake Ontario. Additional snowfall amounts will range from an
additional few inches east of Lake Ontario to less than an inch from
the Finger Lakes westward. Despite 850Ts falling back to around
-10C, BUFKIT soundings continue to advertise quite unfavorable
conditions for any meaningful lake response in the wake of the
system, however will not rule out a few scattered light snow showers
or flurries south of the Lakes on a cold northerly flow and with the
upper level trough axis crossing the area late Saturday
afternoon/evening. Will keep PoPs just below SChC for now. Highs
will range from the mid and upper 20s across the higher terrain, to
the lower 30s elsewhere.

Strong Canadian high pressure will quickly build into the lower
Great Lakes Saturday night bringing dry, but chilly conditions with
lows ranging from the mid teens to lower 20s. Surface ridge axis
will slide overhead by later Sunday into Sunday night providing a
dry finish to the weekend. Airmass will remain quite cold, so will
continue with below average temps for one more day with highs
generally topping out in the low to mid 30s across the region.
Airmass will significantly warm aloft Sunday night, however with
surface ridge axis overhead that warmer air will not be realized at
the surface with a stout inversion just off the deck. Clear skies
and light breezes will allow for good radiational cooling with lows
ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s.

Surface ridge axis slides east of the area Monday into Monday night
while ridging amplifies aloft ensuring dry weather continues.
Surface heating will help bust the inversion just off the deck and
once this occurs much warmer air aloft will pour down to the surface
allowing temps to climb rapidly during the day Monday with highs
making it into the 40s and 50s. Lows Monday night will range from
the mid 20s east of Lake Ontario to the mid 30s across far western
NY as warmer air continues to move into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will slide east of the area
as we open the period, however expect much of the day Tuesday to
remain dry. This will allow the system that has been held off to our
west to finally move into our forecast area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A strong southern jet will transport a steady stream of
GOMEX based moisture into the eastern Great Lakes, with surface
cyclogenesis under the left-exit quadrant of the jet causing low
pressure to climb from the Upper Midwest to Ontario Province across
the upper Great Lakes. Otherwise, continue to undercut the NBM PoPs
as operational guidance continues to suggest Tuesday will remain
mostly dry across our region as mentioned above, though confidence
is high enough at this point for Lkly PoPs Tuesday night and first
half of Wednesday as large scale height falls and moisture advection
will bring some widespread rain showers to the region. Continued
warming will boost highs well into the 50s across the majority of
the region on Tuesday, with lows only falling back into the upper
30s and lower 40s Tuesday night. Highs Wednesday will be mid 40s to
mid 50s.

The area should begin to dry out behind the system Wednesday night,
though will hang onto low-end PoPs through Thursday as the primary
trough axis will lag far behind to the west and may support some
additional light precip late next week. Temps are expected to cool
to near normal behind the system as well, though remain much warmer
than those seen this past week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure across the region early this morning will
slide east today. Mainly clear skies early this morning, except for
lake clouds southeast of Lake Ontario.

Clouds and light snow will move into the region this afternoon ahead
of an area of low pressure. A change to a wintry mix or rain across
the Southern Tier (KJHW) by this evening. Sub-VFR conditions will
spread from west to east across the region with MVFR/IFR conditions
likely tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday...IFR/MVFR with snow and rain. Rain/snow line close to
KBUF/KIAG and KROC.

Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will shift to southeasterly today behind departing surface
high pressure with a gentle breeze through much of the day.

The winds will become easterly and increase on Lake Ontario through
this afternoon. The stronger easterly flow will build waves to small
craft thresholds by early tonight on the west end of Lake Ontario.
Behind a storm system, winds will become northwesterly, with choppy
waters developing along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline later
tonight and Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ003>005-013-014.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM/PP
AVIATION...HSK/Thomas/TMA
MARINE...Thomas/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
523 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-230930-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
523 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-013-014-230930-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
523 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-230930-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
523 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ030-230930-
Lower Niagara River-
523 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-230930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
523 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf