Wind Advisory 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

711 
WWUS71 KBUF 150329
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1029 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

NYZ001-010-019-085-151130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.240215T1900Z-240216T1200Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1029 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-020-021-151130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.240215T2100Z-240216T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, Olean, and Wellsville
1029 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, 
  Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-014-151130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.240215T2100Z-240216T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua
1029 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

TMA

275 
WWUS71 KBUF 150819
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
319 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

NYZ001-010-019-085-151800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.240215T1900Z-240216T1200Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
319 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-020-021-151800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.240215T2100Z-240216T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, Olean, and Wellsville
319 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, 
  Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-014-151800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.240215T2100Z-240216T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua
319 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Apffel

400 
WWUS71 KBUF 151748
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1248 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

NYZ001-010-019-085-160200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.240215T1900Z-240216T1200Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1248 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-020-021-160200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.240215T2100Z-240216T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, Olean, and Wellsville
1248 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, 
  Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-014-160200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.240215T2100Z-240216T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua
1248 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

986 
WWUS71 KBUF 160048
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
748 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

NYZ001-010-019-085-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240216T1200Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
748 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-020-021-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240216T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, Olean, and Wellsville
748 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, 
  Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-014-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240216T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua
748 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few isolated power 
  outages may result. Travel in high profile vehicles may be 
  difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

TMA

331 
WWUS71 KBUF 160729
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
229 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

NYZ001-010-019-085-161200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240216T1200Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
229 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, and Chautauqua counties. Strongest winds
  will be near the immediate lakeshore and across higher terrain.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
  Travel in high profile vehicles may be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-020-021-161200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240216T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, Olean, and Wellsville
229 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston,
  Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties. Strongest winds will be near
  the immediate lakeshore and across higher terrain.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
  Travel in high profile vehicles may be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-014-161500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240216T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua
229 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties. Strongest
  winds will be near the immediate lakeshores.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
  Travel in high profile vehicles may be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Apffel

697 
WWUS71 KBUF 161101
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
601 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-161215-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240216T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
601 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have dropped below advisory criteria and will continue to
diminish during the day.

$$

NYZ004-005-014-161500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240216T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua
601 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Ontario counties. Strongest
  gusts will be near the immediate lakeshore.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Apffel

398 
WWUS71 KBUF 161456
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
956 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

NYZ004-005-014-161600-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-240216T1500Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua
956 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to come down through the rest of the day.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
246 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build east across the region tonight, supporting
dry weather tonight through Thursday morning. Low pressure will then
move east across the region and strengthen Thursday. This system
will bring a mix of wet snow and rain to Western NY Thursday
afternoon and evening, with accumulating snow east of Lake Ontario
late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. It will also turn
quite windy across the entire region Thursday evening through Friday
morning, with gusts to near 50 mph in many areas. Typical winter
cold and occasional lake effect snow showers will continue Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The last of the lake effect flurries southeast of Lake Ontario
across Central NY will gradually end through this evening. A few
areas of lake effect clouds will persist overnight southeast of Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario, with partial clearing elsewhere. Temperatures
will drop back into the upper teens to lower 20s in most areas, with
some single digits east of Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure will drift from eastern NY/PA at daybreak to
off the east coast Thursday afternoon. Lingering subsidence and dry
air will maintain dry weather through the morning hours. Our
attention then turns to an approaching synoptic system.

A northern and southern stream shortwave will partially phase as
they cross the Great Lakes Thursday, with the resulting trough
digging and sharpening over NY Thursday night. At the surface, low
pressure will move along the north shore of Lake Ontario Thursday
afternoon, then cross northern NY Thursday night, deepening with
time in response to the strengthening mid level trough. Strong
forcing for ascent will come in a few different phases. First, a
wing of strong isentropic upglide and warm advection will cross the
area from west to east, reaching Western NY around midday, then the
eastern Lake Ontario region by late afternoon. DPVA and height falls
associated with the sharpening mid level trough will maintain ascent
east of Lake Ontario through the first half of Thursday night, but
this second phase of forcing will largely miss Western NY. Finally,
lake enhancement will develop in the wake of the system.

Across Western NY, a surge of warmer air aloft and in the boundary
layer will likely force the initial batch of precipitation to fall
as a mix of wet snow and rain. Precipitation will likely fall as wet
snow when precipitation rates are higher, then mix with or change to
rain when precipitation rates back off. The mix and marginal surface
temperatures will greatly limit accumulations, with 1" or less of
slush for lower elevations and 1-3" across the high terrain of the
Southern Tier. This initial area of precipitation will be in and out
rather quickly, tapering off by early evening. Overnight, some
limited lake effect and upslope snow showers will develop across the
higher terrain east of Lake Erie with minor additional
accumulations. Farther north, expect just scattered light snow
showers overnight from the Niagara Frontier to the Genesee Valley.

East of Lake Ontario, precipitation type will be a little different
story. Colder column and boundary layer temperatures will support an
all snow scenario, with snow developing during the late afternoon
and continuing through Thursday night. The widespread synoptic snow
will evolve into westerly lake enhanced upslope on the Tug Hill late
Thursday night into Friday morning, further boosting accumulations.
As far as accumulations go, expect a wide range from lower
elevations to the Tug Hill Plateau due to marginal surface
temperatures, upslope and lake enhancement. Most lower elevation
locations can expect 3-6" of accumulation from late Thursday
afternoon through Friday morning. The Tug Hill Plateau will see
considerably more, likely in the 6-10" or even 8-12" range due to
more favorable surface temperatures for snow to accumulate, upslope
and lake enhancement.

The wide range of snow totals makes for a difficult decision on
Watch/Warning/Advisory. After some discussion with neighboring
offices and internally, for now we will go with a Winter Storm Watch
late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning east of Lake Ontario.
To be clear however, watch/warning criteria snow is most likely on
the Tug Hill Plateau only, with much lower advisory amounts for the
surrounding lower elevations.

Finally, it will turn very windy late Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night in the wake of this system. Moderately strong cold
advection behind the cold front will partially mix down the 50+ knot
low level jet in the post-frontal airmass. This will occur first
close to Lake Erie from the Lake Erie shore to Buffalo and the
Niagara Frontier by mid to late afternoon Thursday in southwest flow
immediately behind the front. Thursday night winds will veer to the
WNW, with stronger wind gusts then spreading inland across the
higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and along the
south shore of Lake Ontario. Peak gusts of around 50 mph are
expected in many areas. With that in mind, a Wind Advisory has been
issued for the entire area with the exception of east of Lake
Ontario. Here, the wind potential will be wrapped up within the
Winter Storm Watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A deep longwave trough over the Eastern Great Lakes this period will
ensure lake effect snow, that will fluctuate off the Lakes with the
shifting winds.

Temperatures at 850 hPa will bottom out around -16 to -18C
supporting this lake snow, while also keeping air temperatures close
to February normals, and possibly a bit below.

Several shortwaves riding through this long wave trough will keep
winds and subsequent lake bands shifting which will keep significant
snow totals at bay. There may be a few periods of enhancement to the
bands of snow, this as synoptic moisture deeps with the passing
shortwaves. These periods are Friday Night into Saturday morning,
and again Saturday night into Sunday.

Sunday could also become quite breezy, with a 40 knot LLJ dipping
down to 950 hPa. A area of low pressure passing across southern
Canada will begin to fill as it reaches the Lower Lakes, but still
increase the surface pressure gradient to support stronger winds.
Southwest gusts could reach to 35 to 40 mph across WNY through the
day, and 35 mph in the late afternoon and evening through the Saint
Lawrence Valley. These wind will subside Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday, both the 12Z ECMWF and 12Z Canadian move the longwave trough
out of our region quicker than the GFS, which still displays one
more shortwave trough rippling across the region. Since a good
portion of the GEFS also sides with the ECMWF/Canadian...with
increasing temperatures at 850 hPa, will end the lake snows Monday
morning off Lake Ontario, and have surface temperatures increasing
back above mid February normals.

In a flatter flow the models have a subtle shortwave passing across
the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday or Wednesday. Within this flatter
flow a souther flow in the lower levels ahead of the shortwave will
bring milder temperatures into our region, keeping the p-type rain
or snow for the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lake effect clouds will persist southeast of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario through tonight with areas of lower end VFR and spotty MVFR
CIGS. Otherwise, VFR will prevail for the rest of the area as high
pressure drifts east across the eastern Great Lakes.

Low pressure will move east across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday
afternoon and evening. A mix of wet snow and rain will develop
around midday across Western NY, then spread east to the eastern
Lake Ontario region by late afternoon, with mainly snow east of Lake
Ontario where temperatures will stay a little colder. CIGS will
deteriorate to MVFR/local IFR after the precipitation develops. IFR
will prevail in areas of snow, with MVFR in areas of rain and
rain/snow mix. VSBY may drop to around 1/2SM in moderate snow for a
few hours in locations that remain all snow.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Very windy with IFR in snow east of Lake Ontario.
IFR in lake effect snow showers across the higher terrain east of
Lake Erie. MVFR CIGS and scattered snow showers elsewhere.

Friday through Sunday...MVFR/VFR in scattered snow showers.
Localized lake effect snow east and southeast of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario at times with IFR.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers southeast of the
lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate northwesterlies will maintain Small Craft Advisory
conditions on Lake Ontario into this evening. High pressure will
then drift east across the lower Great Lakes overnight with a brief
period of light winds.

Low pressure is then forecast to move from the southern end of Lake
Huron Thursday afternoon east along the north shore of Lake Ontario
Thursday afternoon and evening before exiting across northern NY
Thursday night. Westerlies will rapidly increase along and behind
the associated cold front, first on Lake Erie Thursday afternoon,
then on Lake Ontario by Thursday evening. This will bring a period
of gale force winds to both lakes. Gales will end late Thursday
night and Friday morning, followed by a period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions that last through Friday evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ001-
     010-019-085.
     Wind Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ002-
     003-011>014-020-021.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     NYZ004-005.
     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
     morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Gale Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
456 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-151000-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
456 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong winds including gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible
Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-151000-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
456 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Several inches of snow will be likely late Thursday and Thursday
night. Wind gusts as high as 45 mph will also be possible,
especially over Oswego county.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-151000-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
456 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-151000-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
456 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-151000-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
456 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf