Gale Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

382 
WHUS71 KBUF 141430
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
930 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

LOZ042-142230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240214T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
930 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday evening through 
  Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-142230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240215T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
930 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 6 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday evening through 
  Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-142230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240215T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
930 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday evening through 
  Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ030-141800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240214T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
930 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-142230-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240215T1800Z-240216T1100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
930 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-142230-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
930 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

485 
WHUS71 KBUF 141821
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
121 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

LOZ030-141930-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240214T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
121 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will continue to diminish this afternoon.

$$

LOZ042-150230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240214T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
121 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  35 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday evening through 
  Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-150230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240215T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
121 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 3 to 6 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  40 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday evening through 
  Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-150230-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240215T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
121 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  40 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday evening through 
  Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-150230-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240215T1800Z-240216T1100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
121 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-150230-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
121 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

827 
WHUS71 KBUF 141959
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
259 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

LOZ042-150400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240215T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0005.240215T2300Z-240216T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
259 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 5 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds 
  to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST 
  Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-150400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240215T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0005.240215T2300Z-240216T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
259 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds 
  to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Thursday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-150400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-240215T0600Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0005.240215T2300Z-240216T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
259 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 10 to 20 
  knots and waves 3 to 6 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds 
  to 40 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 AM EST Thursday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 6 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-150400-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240215T1800Z-240216T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0005.240215T2000Z-240216T1100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
259 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-150400-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.240216T0000Z-240216T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0005.240215T2300Z-240216T1200Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
259 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
334 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wedge of high pressure will cross our region today and tonight.
This will bring an end to nuisance lake snow showers while promoting
fair chilly weather. Disorganized low pressure over the Upper
Mississippi valley tonight will then consolidate while crossing our
region Thursday and Thursday night. This system will generate
widespread mixed rain and snow across the western counties and a
plowable snowfall for sites east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Nuisance lake effect snow showers will continue be found southeast
of Lake Ontario this morning...while mainly just flurries can be
expected off Lake Erie. Additional accumulations should be
negligible...so the winter weather advisory from the overnight has
been discontinued.

Otherwise...a transitory low amplitude shortwave ridge and
accompanying wedge of sfc high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes
this morning will push east across our region this afternoon and
tonight. This will help to at least partially clear our skies...
although lake clouds could prevent some areas from enjoying a
gradually strengthening late winter sun.

Temperatures today will top out between 25 and 30 for most areas...
while a gusty west to northwest wind will produce wind chills that
will generally be in the teens. Mins for most areas tonight will be
in the teens to low 20s.

Things will then get interesting on Thursday...as weak disorganized
low pressure in the vcnty of Lake Michigan at daybreak will track
east while consolidating into a well defined compact sfc low by the
time it will cross the Lower Great Lakes in the evening. A 50-55kt
low level jet ahead of the evolving sfc low will initially ride up
and over our current cold airmass to support blossoming widespread
mixed rain and snow over the western counties during the late
morning and midday...but the corresponding strong warm advection
will quickly change the increasingly widespread pcpn to at LEAST
mixed pcpn if not a couple hours of just rain. This should greatly
minimize any snow accumulations of the western counties.

East of Lake Ontario though...the due east track of the sfc low
should allow most...if not all...of the pcpn to fall as snow with
the warm air being inched off before crossing the Tug. The snow will
begin in that area during the early afternoon...then as the H925-70
baroclinic forcing maximizes from mid afternoon into the evening...
the snow should fall moderately heavy at times. Several inches of
snow will be possible for this area by nightfall...so winter
headlines may be possible in a later forecast package.

Along with the pcpn...the aforementioned 50kt low level jet will
lead to windy conditions on the backside of the system within the
cold advection. While the bulk of these winds will be experienced
Thursday night...winds could gust to 40 mph near Lake Erie...both
within a very short lived downslope environment in the morning...then
again over a larger area late in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low centered over central New York will pull east-
northeast across the rest of New England Thursday night into Friday.
As such, the steady precipitation from earlier in the day Thursday,
will end during the early evening hours across Western New York and
then after midnight east of lake Ontario. Following this system
there will briefly be a period of lake effect snow showers due to
colder air moving back into the eastern Great Lakes region. Thus,
expect some minor upslope/lake enhanced snow showers across the
higher terrain east of Lake Erie Thursday night through Friday
morning and late Thursday night through Friday for the areas east
and southeast of Lake Ontario. Additionally, the lake effect may
support an additional few inches across the Tug Hill Plateau.

Outside of the lake effect areas Friday, it will be mostly dry with
the exception of a few passing snow flurries. Friday will also be
colder with highs near freezing across the lower elevations and the
upper 20s across the higher terrain. Additionally, it will become
quite breezy behind the departing system Thursday night through
Friday with the strongest winds out of the west-northwest will
impact the south shore of Lake Ontario overnight Thursday night
where gusts may reach 50 mph (especially close to the lake).

A surface low pushing east across the Smokey mountains, may support
its northern precipitation shield to slide across the New York/
Pennsylvania line. With the cold air in place, any percipition
that falls will support snow showers Friday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deep longwave trough will remain from the Great Lakes to New
England through the weekend, allowing for several days of more
typical winter weather across our region.

The arrival of colder air will support lake effect snow potential
east of the lakes Saturday through Sunday, although there is
considerable uncertainty with the quality of the synoptic setup,
given the spread in model guidance with the wave passing to our
south, and then a clipper system forecast to move north of our area
Sunday. There is the potential for accumulating lake effect snow
east of the lakes over the weekend, but given the uncertainty with
the passing synoptic systems, the resulting lake effect setup is
quite uncertain.

The longwave trough will begin to de-amplify and move out of the
area early next week as the pattern across North America becomes
more zonal again, at least temporarily. Monday will still be
seasonable, but above normal temperatures will likely return by next
Tuesday as the core of the cold retreats well north of the
US/Canadian border. A few weak passing systems may support a few
light rain/snow showers Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While VFR weather will be dominant across the region today...there
will be a few more hours of MVFR cigs for areas southeast of Lake
Ontario where lake effect snow showers will still be possible.

High pressure to our west will gradually slide across the Lower
Great Lakes tonight. This will continue to support widespread VFR
conditions with light winds.

Outlook...

Thursday...Conditions deteriorating to MVFR to IFR levels with mixed
rain and snow over the western counties and mainly snow (afternoon)
east of Lake Ontario.
Thursday night...Windy with IFR to MVFR cigs.
Friday through Sunday...MVFR/VFR in scattered snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh northwesterlies remaining in place on Lake Ontario today will
maintain current small craft advisories. In fact...have added a SCA
from Mexico Bay to the St Lawrence river. Meanwhile...moderate
northwesterlies on Lake Erie will back to the west during the
afternoon...keeping some choppy waters in place.

Tonight...the axis of an area of high pressure will cross the Lower
Great Lakes. This will allow winds and waves subside regionwide with
all SCA's expected to expire by 10 PM.

Disorganized low pressure over Lake Michigan Thursday morning will
track east and consolidate into a compact storm system by the time
it will pass over the Lower Great Lakes in the evening. Gentle to
moderate southerlies in advance of this system will significantly
freshen during the midday and afternoon...particularly on Lake Erie.
At least gale force wind gusts are anticipated by mid afternoon on
Lake Erie with the strongest winds expected from late afternoon
through the first half of Thursday night. Will hoist a gale watch
for Lake Erie from 18z Thursday through 11z Friday.

As the storm system exits across New England Thursday night...strong
winds will also develop on Lake Ontario. Frequent gale force wind
gusts will be likely...if not sustained as well. Will also issue a
gale watch for Lake Ontario and run that from 00z Friday through
midday (17z) Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
         LOZ042.
         Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/Hitchcock
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
334 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

NYZ010>014-019>021-085-142045-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
334 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-142045-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
334 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Moderately strong winds will develop Thursday night through Friday
morning behind a departing low pressure system. Winds may gust to
near 50 mph, especially near Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-142045-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
334 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Moderately strong winds will develop Thursday night through Friday
morning behind a departing low pressure system. Winds may gust to
near 50 mph, especially near Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-142045-
Oswego-
334 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Low pressure crossing the eastern Great Lakes will produce widespread
accumulating snow late Thursday through Friday morning. light to
moderate accumulations are expected, with the greatest amounts across
the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau.

Moderately strong winds will develop Thursday night through Friday
morning behind a departing low pressure system. Winds may gust to
near 50 mph, especially near Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-142045-
Jefferson-Lewis-
334 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Low pressure crossing the eastern Great Lakes will produce widespread
accumulating snow late Thursday through Friday morning. light to
moderate accumulations are expected, with the greatest amounts across
the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-142045-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
334 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-142045-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
334 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Winds will increase behind a departing low pressure system Thursday
night through Friday. A period of gale force winds is possible
Thursday night through Friday morning on Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock