Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2024

Wind Advisory 10, NWS Buffalo, NY

April 12, 202414 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this wind advisory at Apr 12, 2024, 9:12 AM EDT for 14 counties in New York. It was in force for 32 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 12, 2024, 9:12 AM EDT (13:12 UTC)
Expired
Apr 13, 2024, 5:00 PM EDT
In force
32 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2024-04-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2024-04-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 28 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
480 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

089 
WWUS71 KBUF 121312
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
912 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-122115-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.240412T1312Z-240413T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
912 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, and Chautauqua Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

EAJ
6 follow-up statements
107 
WWUS71 KBUF 121744
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

NYZ003-004-012>014-020-021-130300-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.240413T0300Z-240413T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville
144 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, 
  and Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-130300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240413T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
144 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, and Chautauqua Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

EAJ
201 
WWUS71 KBUF 130200
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1000 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-131000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240413T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1000 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, and Chautauqua Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ003-004-012>014-020-021-131000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.240413T0300Z-240413T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville
1000 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, 
  and Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

RSH
881 
WWUS71 KBUF 130843
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
443 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

NYZ005-006-131645-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.240413T1000Z-240413T2100Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
443 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-131645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240413T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
443 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Erie, Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, and Chautauqua Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ003-004-012>014-020-021-131645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240413T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville
443 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, 
  and Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JM
206 
WWUS71 KBUF 131426
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1026 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-131530-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240413T1800Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1026 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts have dropped off to 45 mph or less and will continue to 
gradually decrease today...therefore the advisory has been cancelled.

$$

NYZ003-004-012>014-020-021-131800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240413T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville
1026 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, 
  and Allegany Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ005-006-132100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240413T2100Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
1026 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JJR
143 
WWUS71 KBUF 131745
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
145 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

NYZ003-004-012>014-020-021-131845-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240413T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Warsaw, Geneseo,
Canandaigua, Olean, and Wellsville
145 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

Wind gusts have dropped off to 45 mph or less and will continue to 
gradually decrease this afternoon...therefore the advisory will be 
allowed to expire.

$$

NYZ005-006-132100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240413T2100Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
145 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego Counties, particularly areas 
  along the lakeshore.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high 
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JJR
350 
WWUS71 KBUF 132104
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
504 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

NYZ005-006-132215-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-240413T2100Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
504 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

While westerly winds may still gust to 40 mph at times before 
sunset, the threat for damaging winds has ended. Otherwise, wind 
speeds will continue to drop off through tonight.

$$

RSH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Apr 12, 7:06 AM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 12, 7:06 AM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
706 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure will cross the central Great Lakes through the
early morning hours before reaching Quebec late tonight and
Saturday. This system will continue to produce periods of soaking
rainfall and a few scattered thunderstorms through the daytime
hours. The rain will mix with or change to wet snow later tonight
and early Saturday before ending from west to east later Saturday.
Some slushy accumulations are possible across the high terrain
tonight and Saturday morning. It will also be quite windy much of
the time through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A very large and dynamic low pressure system over the eastern Great
Lakes this morning will gradually broaden into deep longwave trough
over the eastern CONUS into the weekend. As it does so, its 987mb
surface low centered just west of the forecast area early this
morning will slide northeast and deepen to 982mb across Quebec by
this evening. Its associated cold frontal boundary will drag through
our area from west to east this morning, with latest sfc obs and
analysis suggesting this boundary is already moving through WNY.
This trough will then translate east of the region tonight, with a
cooler airmass accompanying a secondary cold front supporting a
changeover to snow across the higher terrain areas late.

Precipitation...

Deep moisture transport and multiple spokes of vorticity ejecting
northward out ahead of this front will support additional periods of
soaking rain this morning, with enough instability present to
support a slight chance for thunderstorms and locally heavy
downpours as well. The steadiest rain will shift east through the
morning hours as the cold front marches through, with the main swath
of precip expected to exit the North Country by around noon. In all
this is expected to produce another 0.25-0.75" of new rain across
the region before a lull in the precip works in behind the front.
Thereafter, the system's mid-level trough axis will swing in from the
west and cause additional rains to fill back in, first across the
western Southern Tier this afternoon before spreading eastward this
evening and overnight. Heaviest QPF with this second round of precip
will be where orographic lifting will become a factor across the
hilltops of the Southern Tier.

A solid 1-1.5" with localized amounts of 2" of new rain overnight
has caused minor rises across the Buffalo and Southern Tier area
creeks and rivers, as well as some localized flooding in poor
drainage areas, though wider flooding concerns remain low at this
time. Minor rises below action stage are expected on the Black River
as the front marches towards the region. Rises to action stage and
eventually minor flood stage are expected on portions of the
Allegheny River near the end of the period as the secondary round of
precip moves through the region.

Winds...

The previous Wind Advisory for Lewis and Jefferson counties has been
allowed to expire as the stronger southeasterly LLJ moves out of the
region. Gusty downslope winds off the Tug Hill will continue to
subside through the morning as a result.

Southwest winds will ramp up quickly within the CAA regime behind
the front this morning. Gusts of 40-45mph are expected today across
the Niagara Frontier as strong winds funnel down the long axis of
Lake Erie, with gusts of 30-40mph in other areas from the Genesee
Valley westward. A tough call on whether or not to go with Wind
Advisories today as BUFKIT soundings indicate rather poor low-level
lapse rates until the deeper cold air starts advecting into the
region later this evening. This should preclude advisory level winds
from reaching the surface for an extended period of time, but it
will certainly be close.

As previously mentioned, once the secondary cold front moves through
this evening, winds will shift westerly and increase, then spread
eastward overnight. Gusts of 40-45mph will be likely east of Lake
Erie, especially along the shoreline and across the ridges and
hilltops of the higher terrain areas of the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes. Will be another close call here on whether or not advisories
will eventually be needed in these areas.

Snowfall...

850H temps within the wake of the secondary cold front are expected
to bottom out around -4 to -5C tonight which will support a
changeover to snow across the higher terrain areas east of the
lakes. Moist westerly upslope flow will result in some wet snow
accumulations in these areas. As of this update, several inches of
snow is expected across the hilltops of Cattaraugus, Wyoming, and NW
Allegany counties, as well as up on the Tug Hill. This may warrant
an advisory down the road but confidence is low. Multiple
deterministic models show significantly higher totals across the
Southern Tier, though am highly skeptical of any of these being
realized as ground conditions will be a major limiting factor here,
with the surface likely wet and above freezing for a good deal of
the night. This being said, if snowfall rates are high enough
overnight it could overcome this obstacle.

Temperatures...

Finally, expect a wide range of highs today as the primary cold
front marches through the region. Far western NY has likely already
hit their highs for the day and will continue to slowly tumble
through the 40s. The eastern Lake Ontario region should remain in
the 60s until later this morning before the front moves through and
quickly drops temps back into the 50s.

Low temperatures tonight will average in the 30s across the region,
coldest across the interior Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Rain and higher elevation wet snow will taper off from west to east
Saturday as main upper level trough axis and pesky surface low
pressure finally move northeast of the area. Additional snowfall
amounts will be an inch or less Saturday morning. High pressure will
start to nose northeast into western NY Saturday morning with mainly
dry weather west of the Genesee Valley by midday, then continued
slow drying from the Finger Lakes east through the afternoon.
Otherwise, it will be a windy day with westerly gusts of 30 to 40
mph areawide, with some 45 mph gusts possible as a tight pressure
gradient remains in place and a strong LLJ off the deck is at least
partially mixed with modest LL lapse rates in place. It will a much
cooler day with mainly 40s for highs and some higher terrain areas
potentially not getting out of the upper 30s. Transient ridging
slides across the area Saturday night bringing a short break in the
precipitation with winds dropping off overnight as well. Mainly 30s
for lows.

A compact area of low pressure will then drop across western and
northcentral NY on Sunday. This will bring another shot of rain to
the region to finish out the weekend. Cant rule out few rumbles of
thunder as well. Basin average rainfall amounts will be around 0.25"-
0.50" overnight. It will become breezy, but nothing like we saw the
past couple of days. Highs rebound into the 50s and low 60s toward
the NY/PA line. Low pressure exits southeast Sunday night as high
pressure builds in from the west bringing a return to mainly dry
weather with lows ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another round of weak surface-based ridging will slide across our
area Monday and Monday night and bring another period of mainly dry
weather. This ridge will then slide off to our east on Tuesday...
while giving way to a sprawling cutter-type low that will lumber its
way from the central Plains states to near James Bay through the
rest of the period. This next system will usher in warmer and more
unsettled weather that will feature frequent opportunities for
showers from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...though there will
also likely be some drier periods interspersed. In addition...
diurnal instability may also support the potential for a few
thunderstorms across far southwestern New York Tuesday afternoon and
early evening...then again south of Lake Ontario both Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons/evenings.

With respect to temperatures...these should average out a solid 5 to
10 degrees above normal Monday and Monday night...before trending
even more strongly above normal for Tuesday through Thursday as the
aforementioned cutter low spreads even warmer air across our region.
During the latter three days of the period...it currently appears
that highs will range from the mid-upper 60s east of Lake Ontario to
the 70s across much of western New York.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deepening low pressure system sliding just northwest of the region
across the central Great Lakes will continue to send multiple rounds
of rain showers through the region, resulting in highly variable
flight conditions through the 12z TAF cycle.

Rain showers will continue to produce areas of MVFR and localized
IFR cigs/vsbys, mainly across western NY (KIAG/KBUF/KJHW) through
the morning hours. A cold front arriving closer to daybreak will
push the bulk of the precipitation through the region from west to
east, exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region around 18z. A return
to low VFR or MVFR cigs may occur within this lull in the precip.
Wrap-around moisture will then produce additional showers with IFR
conditions across western NY later this afternoon and evening.

The arrival of the cold front this morning will cause winds to shift
southwesterly and strengthen, especially northeast of Lake Erie.
Gusts to 40kts will be possible across KBUF/KIAG for a sizable
portion of the day.

A secondary cold front will move into the region this evening. This
will cause winds to shift westerly and increase over a larger
footprint of the region. Gusts of 30-35kts will become common with
gusts to 40kts possible east of Lake Erie. The colder airmass will
also bring a changeover to snow across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier (possibly including KJHW) and east of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR/IFR early with rain and wet snow, gradually
improving to VFR from west to east in the afternoon. Windy.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.
Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers late.

&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening low pressure system cutting to our northwest will
send two cold fronts through the region. The first will move east of
the lakes by early this afternoon, causing southwest winds to
quickly ramp up on the lakes from west to east. The second cold
front will arrive later this evening and cause winds to shift to the
west.

These fronts are expected to cause gale force winds on both lakes,
first across Lake Erie into Saturday morning, then across Lake
Ontario tonight through Saturday night. Small Craft Advisories
precede the Gale Warnings across the western and eastern ends of
Lake Ontario.

A more substantiative calming of the winds and waves will arrive by
Sunday as surface high pressure crests over the region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday
         for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Saturday
         for LOZ043>045-063>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 12, 5:48 AM EDT, 3 hours 24 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
548 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

NYZ001>007-010-011-013-014-019-085-131000-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
548 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Areas of moderate to locally heavy rainfall may cause some poor
drainage and low-lying flooding this morning across western NY

Strong winds are possible today northeast Lake Erie with gusts to 45
mph. Strong winds are possible tonight across western NY with gusts
to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong winds are possible Saturday across western and northcentral
NY with gusts to 45 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-021-131000-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
548 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Areas of moderate to locally heavy rainfall may cause some poor
drainage and low-lying flooding this morning

Several inches of heavy wet snow possible across the higher terrain
tonight

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-131000-
Lewis-
548 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several inches of heavy wet snow possible across the highest terrain
of the Tug Hill tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-131000-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
548 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-131000-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
548 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-131000-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
548 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-131000-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
548 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-131000-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
548 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 12, 7:02 AM EDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
702 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

NYZ003>005-013-014-121315-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo,
and Canandaigua
702 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

An area of moderate to heavy rain will move slowly north and
northeast through the area over the next two to three hours.
This will cause some ponding and low-lying poor drainage flooding
in areas. Motorists should also be aware of the ponding on area
roadways. Slowly down and allow for extra time to reach your
destination this morning.

AR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 12, 4:25 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans and 1 more4 hr
Apr 12, 4:55 AM EDTGale WarningBUF40 hr
Apr 12, 11:20 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBUFMonroe80 min
Apr 12, 12:40 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningBUFMonroe41 hr
Apr 12, 12:44 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus46 hr
Apr 12, 1:49 PM EDTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming17 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in New York, 2024Every wind advisory in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.