Alert archive / New York / Wind Advisories in 2024

Wind Advisory 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 9, 202411 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this wind advisory at Jan 9, 2024, 10:45 PM EST for 11 counties in New York. It was in force for 20 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 9, 2024, 10:45 PM EST (03:45 UTC)
Expired
Jan 10, 2024, 6:25 PM EST
In force
20 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 40 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2024-01-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2024-01-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 710 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
865 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
710 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
1182 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

024 
WWUS71 KBUF 100345
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1045 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

NYZ001>003-010>012-019>021-085-101145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240110T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.240110T0345Z-240111T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1045 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday. There will be a temporary lull
  in winds for a few hours overnight. Winds will then increase
  again close to Lake Erie late tonight and early Wednesday
  morning, with stronger winds then spreading east through the day
  Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-013-014-100900-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240110T0900Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
1045 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ006>008-101145-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240110T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1045 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 75 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The strongest winds
  will be near the northern and northwestern slopes of the Tug
  Hill to near Watertown and Fort Drum.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
5 follow-up statements
426 
WWUS71 KBUF 100506
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1206 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

NYZ004-005-013-014-100615-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240110T0900Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
1206 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to diminish during the remainder of the
overnight...so the risk for damaging winds has ended.

The winds will increase again on Wednesday though with west to
southwest winds gusting into the mid 40s mph.

$$

NYZ006>008-101315-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240110T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1206 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-019>021-085-101315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240111T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
1206 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
129 
WWUS71 KBUF 100727
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
227 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

NYZ006>008-100830-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240110T1500Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
227 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

While winds through daybreak could still gust to 35 mph...the risk
for damaging winds has ended.

Winds will continue to subside through the initial daylight hours
of Wednesday, then wind gusts should increase to 30 to 35 for the
midday and afternoon. 

$$

NYZ013-014-101600-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240111T0000Z/
Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Geneseo and Canandaigua
227 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Livingston and Ontario counties, mainly across the 
  higher terrain.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-019>021-085-101600-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240111T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
227 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
924 
WWUS71 KBUF 100925
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
425 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240111T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean,
Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
425 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
646 
WWUS71 KBUF 101708
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1208 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-110000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240111T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean,
Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
1208 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  Livingston, Ontario, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Allegany 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

TMA
443 
WWUS71 KBUF 102325
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
625 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-110030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240111T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean,
Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
625 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds will continue to diminish this evening.

$$

Hitchcock

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Jan 9, 8:54 PM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 9, 8:54 PM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
854 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A very robust storm system will track by to our northwest tonight.
In the process, this system will generate damaging winds of 60 to 70
mph across parts of the region, with the strongest winds along the
Lake Erie shore and on the northwest side of the Tug Hill Plateau.
Take the high wind warnings seriously! An equally intense area of
low pressure will take a similar track past our region for the
upcoming weekend. Strong winds will once again be possible...but
there will also be the potential for significant lake snows
behind this system Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...Dangerously Strong Wind Gusts Likely Into Tonight...

A very energetic cyclone will track to our northwest tonight,
crossing Lake Huron by early Wednesday morning and then reaching
southern Quebec by afternoon. A 80+ knot low level jet will scream
northwards across western New York in advance of the system...and
this will guarantee very windy conditions with peak sfc gusts of 50
to 60 mph across most of the area. The strongest wind gusts will
continue to be in downslope areas, including the Lake Erie shore,
and other northwest/north facing slopes from Western NY into the
Finger Lakes, and on the northwest side of the Tug Hill Plateau. The
strongest wind gusts east of Lake Ontario will occur from mid
evening through the early overnight.

This will most certainly pose a great risk to high profile vehicles
traveling in that area...and especially on the NYS Thruway (have
already seen multiple reports of flipped over tractor trailers). It
is worth repeating that the strength of the overall system and its
kinematic fields are highly anomalous with return intervals of more
than 25-30 years.

One factor that may be more important than the actual wind SPEEDS
will be the DIRECTION. The vast majority of our high wind events are
within a predominantly southwest flow...NOT a southeast one. Trees
have become accustomed to strong southwest winds and grow to
accommodate that. A 90 degree shift to the southeast is likely to
exacerbate the potential for downed/damaged trees. It is worth
mentioning that the current high wind warning may have a better
chance of 'verifying' with damage than actually reaching criteria
speeds...largely due to the direction of the winds.

Along with the expected high winds...a large shield of pcpn will
continue to overspread the region. A strongly divergent upper level
flow and lift generated from the aforementioned LLJ will provide
more than enough lift for a half to one inch of liquid equiv pcpn.
Cold air hung on east of Lake Ontario from morning through mid
afternoon allowing for accumulating snow across much of Oswego and
Lewis counties. Most of this has changed to rain as of early this
evening along and west of I-81. Any remaining snow in Lewis County
will change to rain by mid to late evening as temperatures continue
to rise towards 40.

The cyclone will become vertically stacked tonight...as it will pass
to our west. In the meantime...the core of the fierce low level jet
of 80 or even 90kts will slide eastward from the Finger Lakes to the
Eastern Lake Ontario region. A very favorable set up will then be in
place for potentially generational downslope winds off the north-
northeast facing slopes of the Tug Hill with funneling of the
southeast flow also enhancing winds through the Black River valley.
This area may stand the greatest risk for widespread damage...as
especially since what already happened earlier today in southwest
NYS occurred in a weaker setup in terms of winds aloft, gusts could
will likely reach hurricane strength (75+ mph). Meanwhile...winds
across the western counties will slowly back off to more manageable
levels. The widespread steady rain over the western counties will
also diminish in coverage as we work through tonight.

While the highly unusual low level jet will have pushed out of our
forecast area by Wednesday morning...we will not be completely out
of the woods. As the large lumbering storm system passes our region
and exits across Quebec and northern New England...winds aloft will
increase once again to 45-50 knots. Winds of this magnitude within
cold advection should largely mix to the sfc...so advisory criteria
winds will become likely for the midday and afternoon. Further
adding to the winds will be strong pressure rise (+10mb/6hr) moving
in during the afternoon. Additional wind headlines for these winds
will be issued in later shifts.

Speaking of cold advection...H85 temps will lower to -6c by the
afternoon. This will promote a lake response with mixed pcpn
changing to snow east of both lakes. A couple inches of wet snow
will be possible east of both lakes and with the winds there may be
blowing and drifting snow if it becomes cold enough. Meanwhile...
scattered rain and wet snow showers will be found elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave ridge will build over the region between an exiting
storm system to the east and an approaching weaker system to west. A
cold, westerly flow will persist over the eastern Great Lakes region
and ongoing lake effect snow showers will continue east of the Lakes
through Wednesday night. Breezy conditions will continue with wind
gusts 30-40 mph Wednesday evening. Winds will taper off overnight
however this will produce wind chills in the teens across the higher
elevations.

Conditions will become less favorable for lake effect especially
east of Lake Erie as surface ridging builds into the region
Wednesday night. Lake induced equilibrium levels will start out
around 5k feet and fall to 3k feet by Thursday morning. Initially,
the top of the saturated layer will tap into the DGZ and lake effect
snow showers are likely across Chautauqua, southern Erie, Wyoming,
and northern Cattaraugus counties. As the night goes on, winds will
back to the southwest while snow showers weaken across Erie county.
Due to sub-par conditions, accumulations of 1-3 inches are likely in
lake effect snow showers. Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions across
western NY. East of Lake Ontario, a westerly flow will produce
favorable conditions for an organized band of lake effect snow
across the Tug Hill region. Subsidence will be less than areas
further south and lake induced equilibrium levels will be slightly
higher, 6-8k feet. A long fetch and an upslope component will lead
to 2-4 inches of snow Wednesday night. Winds will back and lake
effect snow showers will move northward towards Watertown by
Thursday morning. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 20s
to the low 30s across the lake plains.

The next shortwave trough will approach the region Thursday. Surface
low pressure will track to the west of the area with area-wide winds
becoming south-southwest. Warm air advection and increasing moisture
will produce an area of widespread snow showers (possible some rain
mixing in on the lake plains) across the region. Temperatures aloft
will become marginal for lake effect, however there could be
enhancement across the Niagara Frontier east of Lake Erie and
Watertown region east of Lake Ontario. The low will slide across the
Saint Lawrence River into northern New York late Thursday through
Thursday evening. The best forcing will be across the eastern Lake
Ontario region with marginal lake enhancement and an upslope
component. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 30s, to the
low 30s across the higher terrain. Due to boundary layer
temperatures, snowfall accumulation of 1-2 inches is possible across
the higher terrain to less than an inch across the lower elevations.
The exception is across the eastern Lake Ontario region where a
widespread 1-3 inches is possible.

Cold air advection kicks in again Thursday night, however moisture
will pull away to the east. Lake effect snow showers will diminish
east of the Lakes overnight with minor accumulations east of Lake
Erie and an additional 1-3 inches possible on the Tug Hill. Lows
will fall to the mid to upper 20s across western NY to the low to
mid 20s east of Lake Ontario. A brief break in precipitation is
likely Friday morning. Warm air advection will take place Friday
with moisture moving into western NY by late Friday afternoon. Highs
will reach the upper 30s across western NY to the low to mid 30s
east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...The Next Powerful Storm to Impact the Region This Weekend with
SIGNIFICANT Lake Snows and STRONG Winds Possible...

Models continue to advertise anomalously strong (sub 980mb) area of
low pressure passing by to our west and northwest Friday night and
Saturday. This will be a similar scenario to the storm impacting our
area through tonight, with some variances. One difference being the
stronger southeasterly winds in advance of the system should remain
more confined to the traditional localized downslope areas. That's
not to say it will not be windy in other locations with a tight
pressure gradient in place owed to the -3/-4SD low. Would expect
more wind headlines to come as confidence grows. Precipitation will
start off in the frozen form once again, with a transition of rain
to snow from southwest to northeast through the first half of Friday
night. That said, there may be some minor accumulations on the front
end (onset), especially across the higher terrain and areas further
north, before the transition to plain rain through Friday night.
Expect a non-diurnal temperature trend with temps slowly rising
through the 30s before strong occluded front plows across the area
from west to east second half of Friday night through the first half
of Saturday. Coldest airmass of the season starts to pour in across
the region by the start of Saturday morning with rain already
transitioning back to snow across the western Southern Tier.

Temperatures will fall across WNY through the day Saturday, with
falling temps from midday on across the eastern Lake Ontario region
with all areas down to freezing or below by late in the day. Strong
CAA in the wake of the fropa will cause rain to quickly transition
back to snow from west to east and from high terrain to low by early
afternoon with some accumulations possible. Another difference with
this system will be the more traditional strong southwest/west wind
field aloft in the post-frontal polar airmass that will likely bring
the next or just continue the next round of wind headlines for the
region as strong CAA helps mix strong winds aloft down to the
surface. Widespread synoptic precipitation will pull off to the
northeast Saturday afternoon with lake effect snows starting to
organize downwind of the lakes as very cold air pours across the
relatively warmer lake waters.

Plenty of lingering synoptic moisture and DGZ fully in play should
allow lake effect snows to get cranking Saturday night and Sunday,
mainly across areas east of Lakes Erie and Ontario, south of Buffalo
and Watertown. Way too early for specifics such as exact band
placement and accumulations, but significant snow amounts do look
possible through the second half of the weekend across these areas.
It will also remain very windy, which will also mean the potential
for areas of blowing snow.

Model guidance diverges some toward the tail end of the period, thus
confidence lowers some on lake effect potential into early next
week. However, winds may back more southwesterly which would take
any lake effect activity and send it northeast of the lakes,
possibly impacting the Buffalo and Watertown areas for the start of
the new work week lake effect were to continue. Will need to monitor
trends. With regard to temperatures, appears for the first time this
winter, we will see a stretch of below normal temperatures beginning
on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A strong low level jet will continue to produce strong southeast
winds across Western NY through this evening, and across the eastern
Lake Ontario region through most of tonight. Surface wind gusts will
be highly variable, ranging from 30-50 knots in many areas, with
localized 50-60 knot gusts near north/northwest facing slopes where
downslope winds accelerate down the lee slopes. Where surface wind
gusts are lower, significant low level wind shear will continue.

A large shield of rain will continue to spread northeast across the
area this evening. Wet snow is still mixing in across Lewis County,
but this will change to rain by late evening. Overnight, expect a
dry slot to move into the area with a break in the precipitation.
MVFR CIGS are limited to higher terrain through this evening with
downslope winds holding the lake plains to VFR. Overnight, as the
downslope winds diminish MVFR CIGS will spread across the lower
elevations.

Wednesday, an area of deeper wrap around moisture will arrive, with
precipitation becoming more widespread across Western NY and east of
Lake Ontario. Wet snow will mix in across higher elevations during
the morning, with a change to all wet snow by afternoon across
higher terrain. Expect widespread MVFR CIGS, with some IFR across
higher terrain and some IFR VSBY across higher terrain east of the
lakes where precipitation changes to all snow.

Outlook...

Thursday...A chance of snow showers/IFR northeast of the lakes, with
MVFR to VFR elsewhere.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow.
Saturday...Very Windy. MVFR with rain changing to snow from west
to east.
Sunday...Windy. IFR to MVFR. Snow showers, especially east of the
lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
An expansive and increasingly energetic storm system over the mid-
Mississippi Valley this morning will rapidly deepen as it will track
to lower Michigan by this evening. The deep cyclone will then remain
fairly steady-state...as it will push across Quebec on Wednesday.

Out ahead of this system...rapidly strengthening southeasterlies
will bring widespread higher-end SCA to gale force winds into
tonight with a brief lull late tonight. Winds will once again
freshen on Wednesday to gale force levels as the low will depart to
Quebec.

Gale Warnings are in effect into tonight through Wednesday evening
for Lake Erie and eastern Lake Ontario, and for Wednesday afternoon
and evening for western Lake Ontario.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Following the up to 0.50 inch of precip that has occurred thus far,
an additional 0.25 to 0.50 inch of precipitation will fall into
tonight, though higher amounts will occur over higher terrain east
of Lake Ontario. Ptype will be mainly rain from here on out.
This precipitation will combine with warmer temperatures which
will melt whatever snow pack is already in place, though not
much east of Lake Ontario. The warmest temperatures will be
across the Western Southern Tier and its headwaters and in the
headwaters for the Buffalo Creeks.

The combination of snow melt and rain is expected to push
several forecast points to bankfull (action stage), but the risk for
flooding remains low but non-zero. Areas at the greatest risk
include several of the Buffalo Creeks, the Genesee River at
Wellsville, and the Allegheny River at Olean.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ001>005-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for LOZ042.
         Gale Warning from noon to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042-
         062.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JLA/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/JLA/RSH
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/JLA
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 9, 8:38 PM EST, 2 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
838 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

NYZ012-019-020-085-110145-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
838 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce
another round of strong winds Friday night through Saturday night.
This may be followed by a significant lake effect event Saturday
night through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-010-011-013-014-021-110145-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
838 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce
another round of strong winds Friday night through Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-110145-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
838 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

A storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce
another round of strong winds Saturday through Saturday night, and
possibly significant lake effect snow Saturday night through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-110145-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
838 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale force winds will be possible again Saturday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-110145-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
838 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gale force winds will be possible again Saturday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-110145-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
838 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale force winds will be possible again Saturday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-110145-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
838 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-110145-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
838 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 9, 9:35 PM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
935 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 SW Stanley            42.80N 77.13W
01/09/2024                   Ontario            NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down in Gorham. Time
            estimated.

0800 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Bristol                 42.85N 77.42W
01/09/2024                   Ontario            NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated.

0800 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg East Bloomfield         42.90N 77.43W
01/09/2024                   Ontario            NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated.

0800 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Lima                    42.91N 77.61W
01/09/2024                   Livingston         NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated.

0800 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Conesus                 42.72N 77.68W
01/09/2024                   Livingston         NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated.

0800 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Livonia                 42.82N 77.67W
01/09/2024                   Livingston         NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated.

0830 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Canandaigua             42.89N 77.28W
01/09/2024                   Ontario            NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated.

0830 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Geneseo                 42.80N 77.81W
01/09/2024                   Livingston         NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated.

0830 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Avon                    42.91N 77.75W
01/09/2024                   Livingston         NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated.

0845 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Victor                  42.98N 77.41W
01/09/2024                   Ontario            NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated.

&&

Hitchcock
Local storm report, Jan 9, 10:03 PM EST, 42 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1003 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Dexter             43.99N 76.02W
01/09/2024  M79 MPH          Jefferson          NY   ASOS

&&

EAJ
Local storm report, Jan 9, 10:07 PM EST, 38 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1007 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Fort Drum Airfield      44.05N 75.72W
01/09/2024  M71 MPH          Jefferson          NY   ASOS

&&
Local storm report, Jan 9, 10:14 PM EST, 31 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1014 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Dexter - Watertown 43.99N 76.02W
01/09/2024  M79 MPH          Jefferson          NY   ASOS

            Corrects the time for the previous non-tstm
            wnd gst report from 2 SE Dexter.

&&

EAJ
Local storm report, Jan 9, 10:17 PM EST, 28 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1017 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Dexter - Watertown 43.99N 76.02W
01/09/2024  M78 MPH          Jefferson          NY   ASOS

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
            from 2 SE Dexter.

&&

EAJ
Local storm report, Jan 9, 10:30 PM EST, 15 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1030 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Belleville              43.79N 76.11W
01/09/2024  M70 MPH          Jefferson          NY   Mesonet

            NYS Mesonet in Belleville.

0925 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 S Elma Center         42.80N 78.64W
01/09/2024                   Erie               NY   Law Enforcement

            Low hanging wires causing road closure on
            Bowen Road between W Blood Rd and Rte 400.

0830 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SW Orchard Park       42.75N 78.78W
01/09/2024                   Erie               NY   Law Enforcement

            Powerlines down on Armor Duells Road between
            Duerr Road and Bussendorfer Road.

0720 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Friendship              42.21N 78.14W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0720 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Angelica                42.30N 78.02W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0720 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Belfast                 42.34N 78.11W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0715 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Wirt                    42.13N 78.14W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0710 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Wellsville              42.12N 77.95W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0710 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Alma                    42.01N 78.05W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0455 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Carrollton              42.11N 78.65W
01/09/2024                   Cattaraugus        NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0435 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Machias                 42.42N 78.49W
01/09/2024                   Cattaraugus        NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0345 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Otto                    42.36N 78.83W
01/09/2024                   Cattaraugus        NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0345 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Little Valley           42.25N 78.80W
01/09/2024                   Cattaraugus        NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0345 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg New Albion              42.28N 78.89W
01/09/2024                   Cattaraugus        NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

1255 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Portland                42.36N 79.48W
01/09/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

1255 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Sheridan                42.49N 79.24W
01/09/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

1255 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Dunkirk                 42.48N 79.33W
01/09/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            city. Time estimated.

1255 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Brocton                 42.39N 79.44W
01/09/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 10, 3:09 AM ESTLake Effect Snow WarningBUFJefferson, Lewis, Oswego43 hr
Jan 10, 3:09 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming43 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in New York, 2024Every wind advisory in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.